Quantifying chaos for ecological stoichiometry

The theory of ecological stoichiometry considers ecological interactions among species with different chemical compositions. Both experimental and theoretical investigations have shown the importance of species composition in the outcome of the population dynamics. A recent study of a theoretical three-species food chain model considering stoichiometry [B. Deng and I. Loladze, Chaos 17, 033108 (2007)] shows that coexistence between two consumers predating on the same prey is possible via chaos. In this work we study the topological and dynamical measures of the chaotic attractors found in such a model under ecological relevant parameters. By using the theory of symbolic dynamics, we first compute the topological entropy associated with unimodal Poincareacute return maps obtained by Deng and Loladze from a dimension reduction. With this measure we numerically prove chaotic competitive coexistence, which is characterized by positive topological entropy and positive Lyapunov exponents, achieved when the first predator reduces its maximum growth rate, as happens at increasing delta(1). However, for higher values of delta(1) the dynamics become again stable due to an asymmetric bubble-like bifurcation scenario. We also show that a decrease in the efficiency of the predator sensitive to prey's quality (increasing parameter zeta) stabilizes the dynamics. Finally, we estimate the fractal dimension of the chaotic attractors for the stoichiometric ecological model.

Chaos and crises in a model for cooperative hunting: A symbolic dynamics approach

In this work we investigate the population dynamics of cooperative hunting extending the McCann and Yodzis model for a three-species food chain system with a predator, a prey, and a resource species. The new model considers that a given fraction sigma of predators cooperates in prey's hunting, while the rest of the population 1-sigma hunts without cooperation. We use the theory of symbolic dynamics to study the topological entropy and the parameter space ordering of the kneading sequences associated with one-dimensional maps that reproduce significant aspects of the dynamics of the species under several degrees of cooperative hunting. Our model also allows us to investigate the so-called deterministic extinction via chaotic crisis and transient chaos in the framework of cooperative hunting. The symbolic sequences allow us to identify a critical boundary in the parameter spaces (K, C-0) and (K, sigma) which separates two scenarios: (i) all-species coexistence and (ii) predator's extinction via chaotic crisis. We show that the crisis value of the carrying capacity K-c decreases at increasing sigma, indicating that predator's populations with high degree of cooperative hunting are more sensitive to the chaotic crises. We also show that the control method of Dhamala and Lai [Phys. Rev. E 59, 1646 (1999)] can sustain the chaotic behavior after the crisis for systems with cooperative hunting. We finally analyze and quantify the inner structure of the target regions obtained with this control method for wider parameter values beyond the crisis, showing a power law dependence of the extinction transients on such critical parameters.

Epidemiologic transition in northern Angola: discussion of cumulative results from CISA (Health Research Centre of Angola)

The 41 years of armed conflict (1961 to 2002) resulted in a poor development of the health care and education infrastructures, and forced the relocation of people to safer places, namely major urban cities like Luanda. This phase was characterized by typical demographic, nutritional and epidemiological profiles. With the end of this period Angola has been repeatedly ranked as one of the three fastest growing economies in the world, and along with the social stabilization and globalization, the country is facing the introduction of new medical technologies, improvement of health sys-tems and services, better access to them, and overall better quality of life. These changes could also be translating into socio-cultural, demographic and nutritional changes which in turn may leading to changes in the epidemiological profile of the country. Thus, the emergence of non-communicable diseases are likely to become an increasingly im-portant public health problem in Angola. Also, considering that several infectious diseases persist, our weakened health system will have to face a double burden. Thus, disease surveillance data on non-communicable diseases to determine their prevalence and impact, along with the major behavioural risk factors like consumption of tobacco, alcohol, diets and physical inactivity are urgently needed.

On chaos, transient chaos and ghosts in single populations models with allee effects

Density-dependent effects, both positive or negative, can have an important impact on the population dynamics of species by modifying their population per-capita growth rates. An important type of such density-dependent factors is given by the so-called Allee effects, widely studied in theoretical and field population biology. In this study, we analyze two discrete single population models with overcompensating density-dependence and Allee effects due to predator saturation and mating limitation using symbolic dynamics theory. We focus on the scenarios of persistence and bistability, in which the species dynamics can be chaotic. For the chaotic regimes, we compute the topological entropy as well as the Lyapunov exponent under ecological key parameters and different initial conditions. We also provide co-dimension two bifurcation diagrams for both systems computing the periods of the orbits, also characterizing the period-ordering routes toward the boundary crisis responsible for species extinction via transient chaos. Our results show that the topological entropy increases as we approach to the parametric regions involving transient chaos, being maximum when the full shift R(L)(infinity) occurs, and the system enters into the essential extinction regime. Finally, we characterize analytically, using a complex variable approach, and numerically the inverse square-root scaling law arising in the vicinity of a saddle-node bifurcation responsible for the extinction scenario in the two studied models. The results are discussed in the context of species fragility under differential Allee effects. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How Complex, Probable, and Predictable is Genetically Driven Red Queen Chaos?

Coevolution between two antagonistic species has been widely studied theoretically for both ecologically- and genetically-driven Red Queen dynamics. A typical outcome of these systems is an oscillatory behavior causing an endless series of one species adaptation and others counter-adaptation. More recently, a mathematical model combining a three-species food chain system with an adaptive dynamics approach revealed genetically driven chaotic Red Queen coevolution. In the present article, we analyze this mathematical model mainly focusing on the impact of species rates of evolution (mutation rates) in the dynamics. Firstly, we analytically proof the boundedness of the trajectories of the chaotic attractor. The complexity of the coupling between the dynamical variables is quantified using observability indices. By using symbolic dynamics theory, we quantify the complexity of genetically driven Red Queen chaos computing the topological entropy of existing one-dimensional iterated maps using Markov partitions. Co-dimensional two bifurcation diagrams are also built from the period ordering of the orbits of the maps. Then, we study the predictability of the Red Queen chaos, found in narrow regions of mutation rates. To extend the previous analyses, we also computed the likeliness of finding chaos in a given region of the parameter space varying other model parameters simultaneously. Such analyses allowed us to compute a mean predictability measure for the system in the explored region of the parameter space. We found that genetically driven Red Queen chaos, although being restricted to small regions of the analyzed parameter space, might be highly unpredictable.