A model to forecast financial failure, in non financial galician SMES

We are concerned with providing more empirical evidence on forecast failure, developing forecast models, and examining the impact of events such as audit reports. A joint consideration of classic financial ratios and relevant external indicators leads us to build a basic prediction model focused in non-financial Galician SMEs. Explanatory variables are relevant financial indicators from the viewpoint of the financial logic and financial failure theory. The paper explores three mathematical models: discriminant analysis, Logit, and linear multivariate regression. We conclude that, even though they both offer high explanatory and predictive abilities, Logit and MDA models should be used and interpreted jointly.

A risk-averse optimization model for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty

In this paper, a stochastic programming approach is proposed for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty. Uncertainty in the energy market prices is the main cause of high volatility of profits achieved by power producers. The volatile and intermittent nature of wind energy represents another source of uncertainty. Hence, each uncertain parameter is modeled by scenarios, where each scenario represents a plausible realization of the uncertain parameters with an associated occurrence probability. Also, an appropriate risk measurement is considered. The proposed approach is applied on a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

H → Zr in the complex two Higgs doublet model

The latest LHC data confirmed the existence of a Higgs-like particle and made interesting measurements on its decays into gamma gamma, ZZ*, WW*, tau(+)tau(-), and b (b) over bar. It is expected that a decay into Z gamma might be measured at the next LHC round, for which there already exists an upper bound. The Higgs-like particle could be a mixture of scalar with a relatively large component of pseudoscalar. We compute the decay of such a mixed state into Z gamma, and we study its properties in the context of the complex two Higgs doublet model, analysing the effect of the current measurements on the four versions of this model. We show that a measurement of the h -> Z gamma rate at a level consistent with the SM can be used to place interesting constraints on the pseudoscalar component. We also comment on the issue of a wrong sign Yukawa coupling for the bottom in Type II models.