The impact of the 2008 and 2010 financial crises on international stock markets : contagion and long memory

Nesta tese estudamos os efeitos de contágio financeiro e de memória longa causados pelas crises financeiras de 2008 e 2010 em alguns mercados acionistas internacionais. A tese é composta por três ensaios interligados. No Ensaio 1, recorremos à teoria das cópulas para testar a existência de contágio e revelar os canais “investor induced” de transmissão da crise de 2008 aos mercados da Bélgica, França, Holanda e Portugal (grupo NYSE Euronext). Concluímos que existe contágio nestes mercados, que o canal “portfolio rebalancing” é o mecanismo mais importante de transmissão da crise, e que o fenómeno “flight to quality” está presente nos mercados. No Ensaio 2, usando novamente modelos de cópulas, avaliamos os efeitos de contágio provocados pelo mercado acionista grego nos mercados do grupo NYSE Euronext, no contexto da crise de 2010. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que durante a crise de 2010 apenas o mercado português foi objeto de contágio; além disso, conclui-se que os efeitos de contágio provocados pela crise de 2008 são claramente superiores aos efeitos provocados pela crise de 2010. No Ensaio 3, abordamos o tema da memória longa através do estudo do expoente de Hurst dos mercados acionistas da Bélgica, E.U.A., França, Grécia, Holanda, Japão, Reino Unido e Portugal. Verificamos que as propriedades de memória longa dos mercados foram afetadas pelas crises, especialmente a de 2008 – que aumentou a memória longa dos mercados e tornou-os mais persistentes. Finalmente, usando cópulas mais uma vez, verificamos que as crises provocaram, em geral, um aumento na correlação entre os expoentes de Hurst locais dos mercados foco das crises (E.U.A. e Grécia) e os expoentes de Hurst locais dos outros mercados da amostra, sugerindo que o expoente de Hurst pode ser utilizado para detetar efeitos de contágio financeiro. Em síntese, os resultados desta tese sugerem que comparativamente com períodos de acalmia, os períodos de crises financeiras tendem a provocar ineficiência nos mercados acionistas e a conduzi-los na direção da persistência e do contágio financeiro.

Evaluating Tsunami Impact on the Gulf of Cadiz Coast (Northeast Atlantic).

The Gulf of Cadiz coasts are exposed to tsunamis. Emergency planning tools are now taking into account this fact, especially because a series of historical occurrences were strikingly significant, having left strong evidence behind, in the mareographic records, the geological evidence or simply the memory of the populations. The study area is a strip along the Algarve coast, south Portugal, an area known to have been heavily impacted by the 1 November 1755 event. In this study we use two different tsunami scenarios generated by the rupture of two thrust faults identified in the area, corresponding to 8.1-8.3 magnitude earthquakes. Tsunami propagation and inundation computation is performed using a non-linear shallow water code with bottom friction. Numerical modeling results are presented in terms of flow depth and current velocity with maximum values of 7 m and 8 m/s for inundation depth and flow speed, respectively. These results constitute a valuable tool for local authorities, emergency and decision planners to define the priority zones where tsunami mitigation measures must be implemented and to develop tsunami-resilient communities.

James W. Carey as critical theorist of the information age

This paper suggests that the thought of the North-American critical theorist James W. Carey provides a relevant perspective on communication and technology. Having as background American social pragmatism and progressive thinkers of the beginning of the 20th century (as Dewey, Mead, Cooley, and Park), Carey built a perspective that brought together the political economy of Harold A. Innis, the social criticism of David Riesman and Charles W. Mills and incorporated Marxist topics such as commodification and sociocultural domination. The main goal of this paper is to explore the connection established by Carey between modern technological communication and what he called the “transmissive model”, a model which not only reduces the symbolic process of communication to instrumentalization and to information delivery, but also politically converges with capitalism as well as power, control and expansionist goals. Conceiving communication as a process that creates symbolic and cultural systems, in which and through which social life takes place, Carey gives equal emphasis to the incorporation processes of communication.If symbolic forms and culture are ways of conditioning action, they are also influenced by technological and economic materializations of symbolic systems, and by other conditioning structures. In Carey’s view, communication is never a disembodied force; rather, it is a set of practices in which co-exist conceptions, techniques and social relations. These practices configure reality or, alternatively, can refute, transform and celebrate it. Exhibiting sensitiveness favourable to the historical understanding of communication, media and information technologies, one of the issues Carey explored most was the history of the telegraph as an harbinger of the Internet, of its problems and contradictions. For Carey, Internet was seen as the contemporary heir of the communications revolution triggered by the prototype of transmission technologies, namely the telegraph in the 19th century. In the telegraph Carey saw the prototype of many subsequent commercial empires based on science and technology, a pioneer model for complex business management; an example of conflict of interest for the control over patents; an inducer of changes both in language and in structures of knowledge; and a promoter of a futurist and utopian thought of information technologies. After a brief approach to Carey’s communication theory, this paper focuses on his seminal essay "Technology and ideology. The case of the telegraph", bearing in mind the prospect of the communication revolution introduced by Internet. We maintain that this essay has seminal relevance for critically studying the information society. Our reading of it highlights the reach, as well as the problems, of an approach which conceives the innovation of the telegraph as a metaphor for all innovations, announcing the modern stage of history and determining to this day the major lines of development in modern communication systems.

GPU implementation of the simplex identification via split augmented Lagrangian

Hyperspectral imaging can be used for object detection and for discriminating between different objects based on their spectral characteristics. One of the main problems of hyperspectral data analysis is the presence of mixed pixels, due to the low spatial resolution of such images. This means that several spectrally pure signatures (endmembers) are combined into the same mixed pixel. Linear spectral unmixing follows an unsupervised approach which aims at inferring pure spectral signatures and their material fractions at each pixel of the scene. The huge data volumes acquired by such sensors put stringent requirements on processing and unmixing methods. This paper proposes an efficient implementation of a unsupervised linear unmixing method on GPUs using CUDA. The method finds the smallest simplex by solving a sequence of nonsmooth convex subproblems using variable splitting to obtain a constraint formulation, and then applying an augmented Lagrangian technique. The parallel implementation of SISAL presented in this work exploits the GPU architecture at low level, using shared memory and coalesced accesses to memory. The results herein presented indicate that the GPU implementation can significantly accelerate the method's execution over big datasets while maintaining the methods accuracy.