The portuguese insurance industry: basis for strategic process decision

Nowadays, the Portuguese insurance industry operates in a market with a much more aggressive structure than a few decades ago. Markets and the economy have become globalised since the last decade of the 20th century. Market forces have gradually shifted – power is now mainly on the demand side. In order to meet the new requirements, the insurance industry must develop a strong strategic ability to respond to constant changes of the new international economic order.One of the basic aspects of this strategic development will focus on the ability to predict the future. We introduce the subject by briefly describing the sector, its organisational structure in the Portuguese market, and challenges arising from the development of the European Union. We then analyse the economic and financial structure of the sector. From this point of view, we aim at the possibility of designing models that could explain the demand for insurance, claims and technical reserves evolution. Such models, (even if based on the past), would resolve, at least partly, one of the greatest difficulties experienced by insurance companies when estimating the budget. Thus, we examine the existence of variables that explain the previous points, which are capable of forming a basis for designing models that are simple but efficient, and can be used for strategic planning.

Risk Aversion in a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Approach to Support Decision-Making for a Hydro Power Producer

In this paper, a mixed-integer nonlinear approach is proposed to support decision-making for a hydro power producer, considering a head-dependent hydro chain. The aim is to maximize the profit of the hydro power producer from selling energy into the electric market. As a new contribution to earlier studies, a risk aversion criterion is taken into account, as well as head-dependency. The volatility of the expected profit is limited through the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). The proposed approach has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems.

Increasing availability through maintainability growth using partial Multi Criteria Decision Making (pMCDM)

In the last decades considerations about equipments' availability became an important issue, as well as its dependence on components characteristics such as reliability and maintainability. This is particularly of outstanding importance if one is dealing with high risk industrial equipments, where these factors play an important and fundamental role in risk management when safety or huge economic values are in discussion. As availability is a function of reliability, maintainability, and maintenance support activities, the main goal is to improve one or more of these factors. This paper intends to show how maintainability can influence availability and present a methodology to select the most important attributes for maintainability using a partial Multi Criteria Decision Making (pMCDM). Improvements in maintainability can be analyzed assuming it as a probability related with a restore probability density function [g(t)].

Power converter topologies for wind energy conversion systems: Integrated modeling, control strategy and performance simulation

This paper presents new integrated model for variable-speed wind energy conversion systems, considering a more accurate dynamic of the wind turbine, rotor, generator, power converter and filter. Pulse width modulation by space vector modulation associated with sliding mode is used for controlling the power converters. Also, power factor control is introduced at the output of the power converters. Comprehensive performance simulation studies are carried out with matrix, two-level and multilevel power converter topologies in order to adequately assert the system performance. Conclusions are duly drawn.

Aplicação de ferramentas de simulação de processos

Este trabalho foi efectuado com o propósito de interpretar, compreender e explicar algumas ferramentas de simulação de processos, em particular o Aspen Energy Analyzer (AEA), o Aspen Economic Evaluation (AEE) e o seu funcionamento integrado com o Aspen Hysys(AH). O AH é uma ferramenta de modelação de processos para a concepção de projectos de engenharia química, o AEA é uma ferramenta de modelação de redes de integração energética. O AEE integrado no AH é uma ferramenta que permite incorporar estudos económicos numa fase preliminar do desenvolvimento de um projecto de engenharia. A abordagem a este trabalho foi efectuada através do estudo de Casos. O Caso I foi baseado na resolução de um problema no AEA através da construção e optimização de uma rede de permutadores de calor. Os Casos II e III foram baseados na construção de um flowsheet de produção de Benzeno e de Cloreto de Vinil, respectivamente, e cada Caso foi dividido em dois cenários diferentes. Para o efeito foram utilizados os softwares AEA para a integração energética dos processos, o AH para construção do fluxograma do processo e o AEE para os estudos económicos dos diferentes cenários. Finalmente, os Casos IV e V dizem respeito à resolução de um problema de integração energética. O Caso IV foi baseado num problema de optimização da rede de permutadores através do aumento da sua área. Já o Caso V foi baseado na informação inicial das correntes do caso anterior e em dois cenários diferentes, nos quais foi estudada a influência dos preços das utilidades na construção da rede de permutadores. A conclusão foi que as ferramentas de modelação, particularmente o AH, o AEA e o AEE são uma mais-valia extraordinária para ajudar o utilizador na tomada de decisões em fases bastante preliminares da engenharia de processos.

A hybrid approach to multi-agent decision-making

In the aftermath of a large-scale disaster, agents' decisions derive from self-interested (e.g. survival), common-good (e.g. victims' rescue) and teamwork (e.g. fire extinction) motivations. However, current decision-theoretic models are either purely individual or purely collective and find it difficult to deal with motivational attitudes; on the other hand, mental-state based models find it difficult to deal with uncertainty. We propose a hybrid, CvI-JI, approach that combines: i) collective 'versus' individual (CvI) decisions, founded on the Markov decision process (MDP) quantitative evaluation of joint-actions, and ii)joint-intentions (JI) formulation of teamwork, founded on the belief-desire-intention (BDI) architecture of general mental-state based reasoning. The CvI-JI evaluation explores the performance's improvement

RFID together with multi-agent systems to control global value chains

Nowadays, the cooperative intelligent transport systems are part of a largest system. Transportations are modal operations integrated in logistics and, logistics is the main process of the supply chain management. The supply chain strategic management as a simultaneous local and global value chain is a collaborative/cooperative organization of stakeholders, many times in co-opetition, to perform a service to the customers respecting the time, place, price and quality levels. The transportation, like other logistics operations must add value, which is achieved in this case through compression lead times and order fulfillments. The complex supplier's network and the distribution channels must be efficient and the integral visibility (monitoring and tracing) of supply chain is a significant source of competitive advantage. Nowadays, the competition is not discussed between companies but among supply chains. This paper aims to evidence the current and emerging manufacturing and logistics system challenges as a new field of opportunities for the automation and control systems research community. Furthermore, the paper forecasts the use of radio frequency identification (RFID) technologies integrated into an information and communication technologies (ICT) framework based on distributed artificial intelligence (DAI) supported by a multi-agent system (MAS), as the most value advantage of supply chain management (SCM) in a cooperative intelligent logistics systems. Logistical platforms (production or distribution) as nodes of added value of supplying and distribution networks are proposed as critical points of the visibility of the inventory, where these technological needs are more evident.

Is stock market volatility persistent? A fractionally integrated approach

This paper seeks to study the persistence in the G7’s stock market volatility, which is carried out using the GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH models. The data set consists of the daily returns of the S&P/TSX 60, CAC 40, DAX 30, MIB 30, NIKKEI 225, FTSE 100 and S&P 500 indexes over the period 1999-2009. The results evidences long memory in volatility, which is more pronounced in Germany, Italy and France. On the other hand, Japan appears as the country where this phenomenon is less obvious; nevertheless, the persistence prevails but with minor intensity.

Integrated vehicle classification system

This paper presents an integrated system for vehicle classification. This system aims to classify vehicles using different approaches: 1) based on the height of the first axle and_the number of axles; 2) based on volumetric measurements and; 3) based on features extracted from the captured image of the vehicle. The system uses a laser sensor for measurements and a set of image analysis algorithms to compute some visual features. By combining different classification methods, it is shown that the system improves its accuracy and robustness, enabling its usage in more difficult environments satisfying the proposed requirements established by the Portuguese motorway contractor BRISA.

Photodetector with integrated optical thin film filters

This paper reports on optical filters based on a-SiC:H tandem pi'n/pin heterostructures. The spectral sensitivity is analyzed. Steady state optical bias with different wavelengths are applied from each front and back sides and the photocurrent is measured. Results show that it is possible to control the sensitivity of the device and to tune a specific wavelength range by combining radiations with complementary light penetration depths. The transfer characteristics effects due to changes in the front and back optical bias wavelength are discussed. Depending on the wavelength of the external background and irradiation side, the device acts either as a short- or a long-pass band filter or as a band-stop filter. The output waveform presents a nonlinear amplitude-dependent response to the wavelengths of the input channels.

Integrated photonic filters based on SiC multilayer structures

Combined tunable WDM converters based on SiC multilayer photonic active filters are analyzed. The operation combines the properties of active long-pass and short-pass wavelength filter sections into a capacitive active band-pass filter. The sensor element is a multilayered heterostructure produced by PE-CVD. The configuration includes two stacked SiC p-i-n structures sandwiched between two transparent contacts. Transfer function characteristics are studied both theoretically and experimentally. Results show that optical bias activated photonic device combines the demultiplexing operation with the simultaneous photodetection and self amplification of an optical signal acting the device as an integrated photonic filter in the visible range. Depending on the wavelength of the external background and irradiation side, the device acts either as a short- or a long-pass band filter or as a band-stop filter. The output waveform presents a nonlinear amplitude-dependent response to the wavelengths of the input channels. A numerical simulation and a two building-blocks active circuit are presented and give insight into the physics of the device. (c) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A 5GHz/1.8V CMOS Active Balun Integrated with LNA

The development of high performance monolithic RF front-ends requires innovative RF circuit design to make the best of a good technology. A fully differential approach is usually preferred, due to its well-known properties. Although the differential approach must be preserved inside the chip, there are cases where the input signal is single-ended such as RF image filters and IF filters in a RF receiver. In these situations, a stage able to convert single-ended into differential signals (balun) is needed. The most cited topology, which is capable of providing high gain, consists on a differential stage with one of the two inputs grounded. Unfortunately, this solution has some drawbacks when implemented monolithically. This work presents the design and simulated results of an innovative high-performance monolithic single to differential converter, which overcomes the limitations of the circuits.The integration of the monolithic active balun circuit with an LNA on a 0.18μm CMOS process is also reported. The circuits presented here are aimed at 802.11a. Section 2 describes the balun circuit and section 3 presents its performance when it is connected to a conventional single-ended LNA. Section 4 shows the simulated performance results focused at phase/amplitude balance and noise figure. Finally, the last section draws conclusions and future work.

Direct Color Sensor, Optical Amplifier and Demux Device Integrated on a Single Monolithic SiC Photodetector

A pi'n/pin a-SiC:H voltage and optical bias controlled device is presented and its behavior as image and color sensor, optical amplifier and demux device is discussed. The design and the light source properties are correlated with the sensor output characteristics. Different readout techniques are used. When a low power monochromatic scanner readout the generated carriers the transducer recognizes a color pattern projected on it acting as a direct color and image sensor. Scan speeds up to 10(4) lines per second are achieved without degradation in the resolution. If the photocurrent generated by different monochromatic pulsed channels is readout directly, the information is demultiplexed. Results show that it is possible to decode the information from three simultaneous color channels without bit errors at bit rates per channel higher than 4000 bps. Finally, when triggered by light of appropriated wavelength, it can amplify or suppress the generated photocurrent working as an optical amplifier (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Normalização dos trabalhos de demolição: proposta de elaboração de um modelo de um plano de demolição

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil Especialização em Edificações

Luz ao fundo do túnel? Análise de um modelo de prevenção e intervenção face ao sobreendividamento das famílias

Na actual conjuntura económica portuguesa tem-se registado uma evolução crescente de situações de sobreendividamento ou de insolvência dos agregados familiares. Associada a esta tendência, surge a preocupação, por parte dos decisores, em encontrar formas de intervenção, mais ou menos ajustadas, face aos problemas verificados. Contudo, esta problemática exige uma actuação integrada, que contemple medidas direccionadas não apenas para a intervenção mas também para a prevenção deste tipo de situações na sociedade portuguesa. Pretendemos, com a apresentação deste modelo, propor um vasto conjunto de medidas, entre as quais se conta a educação financeira, que conduzam a uma dupla actuação face à problemática do sobreendividamento (preventiva e de tratamento), atendendo aos antecedentes, de natureza diversa, que podem estar na sua origem. Este modelo será alvo de uma reflexão e análise, com vista a identificar a pertinência da sua aplicação ao actual panorama sócio-económico português.