The portuguese insurance industry: basis for strategic process decision

Nowadays, the Portuguese insurance industry operates in a market with a much more aggressive structure than a few decades ago. Markets and the economy have become globalised since the last decade of the 20th century. Market forces have gradually shifted – power is now mainly on the demand side. In order to meet the new requirements, the insurance industry must develop a strong strategic ability to respond to constant changes of the new international economic order.One of the basic aspects of this strategic development will focus on the ability to predict the future. We introduce the subject by briefly describing the sector, its organisational structure in the Portuguese market, and challenges arising from the development of the European Union. We then analyse the economic and financial structure of the sector. From this point of view, we aim at the possibility of designing models that could explain the demand for insurance, claims and technical reserves evolution. Such models, (even if based on the past), would resolve, at least partly, one of the greatest difficulties experienced by insurance companies when estimating the budget. Thus, we examine the existence of variables that explain the previous points, which are capable of forming a basis for designing models that are simple but efficient, and can be used for strategic planning.

Optimal insurance with counterparty default risk

We study the design of optimal insurance contracts when the insurer can default on its obligations. In our model default arises endogenously from the interaction of the insurance premium, the indemnity schedule and the insurer’s assets. This allows us to understand the joint effect of insolvency risk and background risk on efficient contracts. The results may shed light on the aggregate risk retention sched- ules observed in catastrophe reinsurance markets, and can assist in the design of (re)insurance programs and guarantee funds.

Tools for testing the Solvency Capital Requirement for life insurance

Longevity risk is one of the major risks that an insurance company or a pension fund has to deal with and it is expected that its importance will grow in the near future. In agreement with these considerations, in Solvency II regulation the Standard formula furnished for calculating the Solvency Capital Requirement explicitly considers this kind of risk. According to the new European rules in our paper we suggest a multiperiod approach to evaluate the SCR for longevity risk. We propose a backtesting framework for measuring the consistency of SCR calculations for life insurance policies.

Boulder deposition during major tsunami events

A remarkable accumulation of marine boulders located above the present spring tide level has occurred in two coastal lowlands of the Algarve (Portugal). The size-interval of the particles studied here is seldom reported in the literature in association with extreme events of coastal inundation, thus making this study of relevance to many other coasts worldwide. The spreads of boulders extend several hundred meters inland and well beyond the present landward limit of storm activity. The marine origin of the boulders is demonstrated by well-developed macro-bioerosion sculpturing and in situ skeletal remains of endolithic shallow marine bivalves. The good state preservation of the fossils within the boulders indicates that abrasion duringtransport and redeposition was not significant. We envisage boulder deposition as having taken place during the Lisbon tsunami of ad 1755 through the simultaneous landward entrainment of coarse particles from nearshore followed by rapid shoreward suspended-dominated transport and non-graded redeposition that excluded significant sorting by weight or boulder dimensions. We use numerical hydrodynamic modeling of tsunami (and storm) waves to test the observational data on boulder dimensions (density, size, distribution) on the most likely processes of sediment deposition. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of the study of boulder deposits in tsunami reconstruction. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

O espectador (in)visível: reflexividade na óptica do espectador em Inland empire de David Lynch

Com INLAND EMPIRE (2006) David Lynch realiza uma obra inteiramente metacinematográfica, provando que este género transversal à História do cinema é passível de coexistir com uma poética arrojada, de pendor moderno, segundo a divisão que Gilles Deleuze faz da Sétima Arte. A produção teórica sobre esta vertente fílmica de Lynch é em termos internacionais muito escassa e em Portugal virtualmente inexistente, justificando que se proceda um trabalho de investigação nestes moldes. Ademais, INLAND EMPIRE não é um exemplo isolado na obra do cineasta, mas sim o ponto culminante de uma carreira que tem vindo a prestar cada vez mais atenção à temática meta-espectatorial. A abordagem de Lynch tem a particularidade de congregar num único trabalho o desejo de manifestar o vidente espelhando igualmente o filme, o que permite abordar INLAND EMPIRE como reflexividade na óptica do espectador. Trata-se de encenar uma alegoria do vidente, mas equacionando produção com recepção. Deste modo, o presente livro adopta o mecanismo da enunciação como base da reflexividade institucional e narrativa em duas secções teóricas distintas versando, respectivamente, a (re)duplicação especular e a mise en abyme. A cada um destes capítulos corresponde uma análise prática directamente relacionada com os factores teóricos apontados. A obra culmina com um areflexão sobre as implicações do cinema digital para a execução de alegorias cinematográficas e a sua influência em INLAND EMPIRE, que já foi inteiramente produzido com esta tecnologia.