Stochastic effects in a seasonally forced epidemic model

The interplay of seasonality, the system's nonlinearities and intrinsic stochasticity, is studied for a seasonally forced susceptible-exposed-infective-recovered stochastic model. The model is explored in the parameter region that corresponds to childhood infectious diseases such as measles. The power spectrum of the stochastic fluctuations around the attractors of the deterministic system that describes the model in the thermodynamic limit is computed analytically and validated by stochastic simulations for large system sizes. Size effects are studied through additional simulations. Other effects such as switching between coexisting attractors induced by stochasticity often mentioned in the literature as playing an important role in the dynamics of childhood infectious diseases are also investigated. The main conclusion is that stochastic amplification, rather than these effects, is the key ingredient to understand the observed incidence patterns.

Epidemiologic transition in northern Angola: discussion of cumulative results from CISA (Health Research Centre of Angola)

The 41 years of armed conflict (1961 to 2002) resulted in a poor development of the health care and education infrastructures, and forced the relocation of people to safer places, namely major urban cities like Luanda. This phase was characterized by typical demographic, nutritional and epidemiological profiles. With the end of this period Angola has been repeatedly ranked as one of the three fastest growing economies in the world, and along with the social stabilization and globalization, the country is facing the introduction of new medical technologies, improvement of health sys-tems and services, better access to them, and overall better quality of life. These changes could also be translating into socio-cultural, demographic and nutritional changes which in turn may leading to changes in the epidemiological profile of the country. Thus, the emergence of non-communicable diseases are likely to become an increasingly im-portant public health problem in Angola. Also, considering that several infectious diseases persist, our weakened health system will have to face a double burden. Thus, disease surveillance data on non-communicable diseases to determine their prevalence and impact, along with the major behavioural risk factors like consumption of tobacco, alcohol, diets and physical inactivity are urgently needed.

Aetiology of diahrroea in children under five at the Bengo General Hospital, Angola

Diarrhoea is the second leading cause of death in children under five years being responsible for 760.000 deaths, corresponding to 9% of the total deaths in this age group. Africa is the region with more deaths due to diarrhoea (46%), followed by South Asia (38%). Three quarters of the total of deaths occurs within only 15 countries and Angola is in the 15th position with a record of 20,000 annual childhood deaths. Diarrhoeal disease can be caused by bacterial, viral and parasitic infectious agents and can be transmited through contaminated food or drinking water, or directly from person to person. Rotavirus and Escherichia coli were shown the most frequent pathogenic agents in developing countries. This study aims to identify the most frequent pathogenic agents of diarrhoea in children under five atttending the Bengo General Hospital (BGH)..

CardioBengo study protocol: a population based cardiovascular longitudinal study in Bengo Province, Angola

Background: Cardiovascular diseases and other non-communicable diseases are major causes of morbidity and mortality, responsible for 38 million deaths in 2012, 75 % occurring in low- and middle-income countries. Most of these countries are facing a period of epidemiological transition, being confronted with an increased burden of non-communicable diseases, which challenge health systems mainly designed to deal with infectious diseases. With the adoption of the World Health Organization “Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of non-communicable diseases, 2013–2020”, the national dimension of risk factors for non-communicable diseases must be reported on a regular basis. Angola has no national surveillance system for non-communicable diseases, and periodic population-based studies can help to overcome this lack of information. CardioBengo will collect information on risk factors, awareness rates and prevalence of symptoms relevant to cardiovascular diseases, to assist decision makers in the implementation of prevention and treatment policies and programs. Methods: CardioBengo is designed as a research structure that comprises a cross-sectional component, providing baseline information and the assembling of a cohort to follow-up the dynamics of cardiovascular diseases risk factors in the catchment area of the Dande Health and Demographic Surveillance System of the Health Research Centre of Angola, in Bengo Province, Angola. The World Health Organization STEPwise approach to surveillance questionnaires and procedures will be used to collect information on a representative sex-age stratified sample, aged between 15 and 64 years old. Discussion: CardioBengo will recruit the first population cohort in Angola designed to evaluate cardiovascular diseases risk factors. Using the structures in place of the Dande Health and Demographic Surveillance System and a reliable methodology that generates comparable results with other regions and countries, this study will constitute a useful tool for the surveillance of cardiovascular diseases. Like all longitudinal studies, a strong concern exists regarding dropouts, but strategies like regular visits to selected participants and a strong community involvement are in place to minimize these occurrences.

Development of a high-throughput monitoring technique of bacteria photodynamic inactivation

Summary form only given. Bacterial infections and the fight against them have been one of the major concerns of mankind since the dawn of time. During the `golden years' of antibiotic discovery, during the 1940-90s, it was thought that the war against infectious diseases had been won. However currently, due to the drug resistance increase, associated with the inefficiency of discovering new antibiotic classes, infectious diseases are again a major public health concern. A potential alternative to antibiotic treatments may be the antimicrobial photodynamic inactivation (PDI) therapy. To date no indication of antimicrobial PDI resistance development has been reported. However the PDI protocol depends on the bacteria species [1], and in some cases on the bacteria strains, for instance Staphylococcus aureus [2]. Therefore the development of PDI monitoring techniques for diverse bacteria strains is critical in pursuing further understanding of such promising alternative therapy. The present works aims to evaluate Fourier-Transformed-Infra-Red (FT-IR) spectroscopy to monitor the PDI of two model bacteria, a gram-negative (Escherichia coli) and a gram-positive (S. aureus) bacteria. For that a high-throughput FTIR spectroscopic method was implemented as generally described in Scholz et al. [3], using short incubation periods and microliter quantities of the incubation mixture containing the bacteria and the PDI-drug model the known bactericidal tetracationic porphyrin 5,10,15,20-tetrakis (4-N, N, Ntrimethylammoniumphenyl)-porphyrin p-tosylate (TTAP4+). In both bacteria models it was possible to detect, by FTIR-spectroscopy, the drugs effect on the cellular composition either directly on the spectra or on score plots of principal component analysis. Furthermore the technique enabled to infer the effect of PDI on the major cellular biomolecules and metabolic status, for example the turn-over metabolism. In summary bacteria PDI was monitored in an economic, rapid (in minutes- , high-throughput (using microplates with 96 wells) and highly sensitive mode resourcing to FTIR spectroscopy, which could serve has a technological basis for the evaluation of antimicrobial PDI therapies efficiency.