Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

Criação de valor - O Cash Value Added como métrica de avaliação da Performance empresarial

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras

O contributo do Value For Money na análise da atividade do transporte não urgente de doentes

Mestrado em Auditoria

Short-term Value for the Water Stored in Headsensitivity Power System Reservoirs

As it is well known, competitive electricity markets require new computing tools for generation companies to enhance the management of its resources. The economic value of the water stored in a power system reservoir is crucial information for enhancing the management of the reservoirs. This paper proposes a practical deterministic approach for computing the short-term economic value of the water stored in a power system reservoir, emphasizing the need to considerer water stored as a scarce resource with a short-term economic value. The paper addresses a problem concerning reservoirs with small storage capacities, i.e., the reservoirs considered as head-sensitivity. More precisely, the respective hydro plant is head-dependent and a pure linear approach is unable to capture such consideration. The paper presents a case study supported by the proposed practical deterministic approach and applied on a real multi-reservoir power system with three cascaded reservoirs, considering as input data forecasts for the electric energy price and for the natural inflow into the reservoirs over the schedule time horizon. The paper presents various water schedules due to different final stored water volume conditions on the reservoirs. Also, it presents the respective economic value of the water for the reservoirs at different stored water volume conditions.