Risk analysis in a Portuguese archive what has changed in five years?

The Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model was applied in 2006 to a Portuguese archive located in Lisbon. Its results highlighted the need for the institution to take care of risks related to fire, physical forces and relative humidity problems. Five years after this first analysis the results are revisited and a few changes are introduced due to recent events: fire and high humidity remain an important hazard but are now accompanied by a pressing contaminants problem. Improvements in storage systems were responsible for a large decrease in terms of calculated risk magnitude and proved to be very cost-effective.

Exposure to fungi in cork: potential occupational hazard

Cork is a light, porous and impermeable material extracted from the bark of some trees. It is in manufacture of stoppers for wine bottles the main application of cork. It is estimated that the area occupied by cork oaks in the Iberian Peninsula is around 33% in Portugal and 23% in Spain. The world production of cork is focused in the south Europe, with Portugal being the most important producer followed by Spain. According to Companies Directory more than 100 manufactories from Portugal has their branch associated with the preparation and fabrication of cork. Cork workers are at risk for developing diseases of the respiratory tract such as occupational asthma and Suberosis, a form of pulmonary hypersensitivity due to repeated exposure to mouldy cork dust. In this review study papers from 2000 were analyzed to better understand which fungi species are associated with occupational disease in cork workers. The most prevalent fungi species in these workers that are associated with those occupational diseases are Penicilliumglabrum, Chrysoniliasitophila and Trichodermalongibrachiatum. Therefore, a specific knowledge about occupational exposure to fungi in the cork industry is the key to better understand the related diseases and to define preventive measures. Given the importance of this occupational setting in Portugal is essential to evaluate the combined exposure of fungi and particles and their metabolites. Further studies concerning exposure assessment to fungi and particles in the cork industry must be developed.

Deterministic approach for multiple-source tsunami hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

In this paper, we present a deterministic approach to tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines, Portugal, one of the test sites of project ASTARTE (Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe). Sines has one of the most important deep-water ports, which has oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid-bulk, coal, and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures face the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING, a Non-linear Shallow Water model wIth Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages: MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level), and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, the tsunami hazard is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, maximum inundation area and run-up. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at the Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario, and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite source of Horseshoe and Marques de Pombal faults as the worst-case scenario, with wave heights of over 10 m, which reach the coast approximately 22 min after the rupture. It dominates the aggregate scenario by about 60 % of the impact area at the test site, considering maximum wave height and maximum flow depth. The HSMPF scenario inundates a total area of 3.5 km2. © Author(s) 2015.

Occupational exposure to mycotoxins: aspects to consider for the aggregate and cumulative risk assessment

Mycotoxins are an important group of naturally occurring substances known to contaminate a huge variety of agricultural products, feed and food commodities. The main concern is their widespread presence and toxic effects on humans and animals as they have been described as cytotoxic, nephrotoxic, hepatotoxic, teratogenic, immunosuppressive, mutagenic and/or carcinogenic. However, until now, risk assessments and regulations have usually been performed on individual mycotoxins despite humans and animals are being frequently exposed to a multitude of mycotoxins simultaneously. Moreover, even though some exposures through inhalation and dermal contact may potentially occur, only oral ingestion has been considered as the sole route of exposure in all the evaluations. However, more recent studies have also demonstrated airborne exposure to mycotoxins in different occupational settings with emphasis on agricultural professions. In these cases, skin contact with mold-infested substrates and inhalation of spore-borne toxins are the most important sources of exposure. Still, mycotoxins are not normally recongnize as na occupational hazard and exposure is different from the one ocurring by food intake. In this case, exposure is charaterized to be acute and simultaneous to other mycotoxins and also to fungi and dust. All these features increase the challenge implicated in the risk assessment process. Some topics will be presented and discussed in detailed such as: What occupational settings should be consider in this case; possible exposure routes; exposure characterization; how to assess exposure; co-exposure; aggregate exposure and cumulative risk assessment.

Body composition, muscle strength, functional capacity, and physical disability risk in liver transplanted familial amyloidotic polyneuropathy patients

Abstract: Background: Familial amyloidotic polyneuropathy (FAP) is a neurodegenerative disease leading to sensory and motor polyneuropathies, and functional limitations. Liver transplantation is the only treatment for FAP, requiring medication that negatively affects bone and muscle metabolism. The aim of this study was to compare body composition, levels of specific strength, level of physical disability risk, and functional capacity of transplanted FAP patients (FAPTx) with a group of healthy individuals (CON). Methods: A group of patients with 48 FAPTx (28 men, 20 women) was compared with 24 CON individuals (14 men, 10 women). Body composition was assessed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, and total skeletal muscle mass (TBSMM) and skeletal muscle index (SMI) were calculated. Handgrip strength was measured for both hands as was isometric strength of quadriceps. Muscle quality (MQ) was ascertained by the ratio of strength to muscle mass. Functional capacity was assessed by the six-minute walk test. Results: Patients with FAPTx had significantly lower functional capacity, weight, body mass index, total fat mass, TBSMM, SMI, lean mass, muscle strength, MQ, and bone mineral density. Conclusion: Patients with FAPTx appear to be at particularly high risk of functional disability, suggesting an important role for an early and appropriately designed rehabilitation program.

Risk factors for non compliance using occlusive therapy: a case study

Purpose: compliance with treatment is a common problem when treating amblyopic patients. Visual acuity of amblyopic eye does not improve without effective occlusive therapy. The aim of this study is to identify potential risk factors of non-compliance with treatment when it is implemented by family in amblyopic children. Setting: a quantitative transversal study was performed in a public hospital and in a private clinic in Lisbon.

Modelos de risk based inspection e risk based inspection and maintenance aplicados a sistemas de produção de energias renováveis

A utilização de recursos energéticos renováveis apresenta-se como um caminho vital para a humanidade alcançar um desenvolvimento sustentável. Nesta campanha, a energia eólica surge como um dos principais vectores de orientação tendo evoluído de forma quase exponencial nos últimos anos. No entanto, apesar da sua relativa maturidade, esta tecnologia enfrenta ainda alguns problemas e desafios. Não obstante a experiência empírica da indústria eólica, adquirida nos últimos trinta anos e dos esforços para melhorar a fiabilidade operacional das turbinas, as taxas de falha ainda se apresentam elevadas. Face às correntes práticas de Manutenção das turbinas e parques eólicos e às características de falha, (por vezes catastróficas), existe a necessidade de optimizar as estratégias de manutenção das turbinas eólicas e reduzir os custos durante o ciclo de vida, de modo a maximizar o retorno do investimento. Descreve-se neste trabalho o estado do conhecimento actual face ao objectivo pretendido, a recolha de dados reais da operação e Manutenção, a aplicabilidade dos modelos escolhidos para obtenção da probabilidade de falha, e as consequências e avaliação do risco. Assim, desenvolveu-se uma ferramenta de apoio à decisão, baseada em Modelos de RBI (Risk Based Inspection) e RBIM (Risk Based Inspection and Maintenance) aplicados a turbinas eólicas.

Risk Aversion in a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Approach to Support Decision-Making for a Hydro Power Producer

In this paper, a mixed-integer nonlinear approach is proposed to support decision-making for a hydro power producer, considering a head-dependent hydro chain. The aim is to maximize the profit of the hydro power producer from selling energy into the electric market. As a new contribution to earlier studies, a risk aversion criterion is taken into account, as well as head-dependency. The volatility of the expected profit is limited through the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). The proposed approach has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems.

Risk assessment in occupational exposure to formaldehyde: differences between anatomy and pathology laboratories and formaldehyde-resins production

Formaldehyde (CH2O), the most simple and reactive of all aldehydes, is colorless, and readily polymerizing gas at normal temperature. The most extensive use is in production of resins and has an important application as a disinfectant and preservative, reason why relevant workplace exposure may also occur in pathology and anatomy laboratories and in mortuaries. A study was carried out in Portugal, in a formaldehyde production resins factory and in 10 pathology and anatomy laboratories. It was applied a risk assessment methodology based on Queensland University proposal that permitted to perform risk assessment for each activity developed in a work station. This methodology was applied in 83 different activities developed in the laboratories and in 18 activities of the factory. Also, Micronucleus Test was performed in lymphocytes from 30 factory workers and 50 laboratories workers.

Risk assessment of exposure to multiple mycotoxins in food

Moulds may produce a diversity of toxins such as aflatoxins, ochratoxins, trichothecenes, zearalenone, fumonisins and others. Although toxicological, environmental and epidemiological studies have addressed the problem of these toxins one by one, more than one mycotoxin are found usually in the same contaminated food. Risk assessment for humans potentially exposed to multimycotoxins suffers very much from the lack of adequate food consumption data. Furthermore, for a given mycotoxin, synergism and antagonism with other mycotoxins, found in the same food commodities, are not taken into account. Aflatoxin B1 and ochratoxin A belong to the most frequently occurring mycotoxins. This has repeatedly been demonstrated, however, normally, the risk resulting from their simultaneous occurrence is not considered. A descriptive study was developed to monitor air fungal contamination in one hospital food unit.

Exposure assessment: the influence of environmental monitoring methodology

Exposure assessment is an important step of risk assessment process and has evolved more quickly than perhaps any aspect of the four-step risk paradigm (hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response analysis, and risk characterization). Nevertheless, some epidemiological studies have associated adverse health effects to a chemical exposure with an inadequate or absent exposure quantification. In addition to the metric used, the truly representation of exposure by measurements depends on: the strategy of sampling, random collection of measurements, and similarity between the measured and unmeasured exposure groups. Two environmental monitoring methodologies for formaldehyde occupational exposure were used to assess the influence of metric selection in exposure assessment and, consequently, in risk assessment process.

On the moroccan tsunami catalogue

A primary tool for regional tsunami hazard assessment is a reliable historical and instrumental catalogue of events. Morocco by its geographical situation, with two marine sides, stretching along the Atlantic coast to the west and along the Mediterranean coast to the north, is the country of Western Africa most exposed to the risk of tsunamis. Previous information on tsunami events affecting Morocco are included in the Iberian and/or the Mediterranean lists of tsunami events, as it is the case of the European GITEC Tsunami Catalogue, but there is a need to organize this information in a dataset and to assess the likelihood of claimed historical tsunamis in Morocco. Due to the fact that Moroccan sources are scarce, this compilation rely on historical documentation from neighbouring countries (Portugal and Spain) and so the compatibility between the new tsunami catalogue presented here and those that correspond to the same source areas is also discussed.

The risk-return trade-off in Europe: A temporal and cross-sectional analysis

This paper analyzes the risk-return trade-off in European equities considering both temporal and cross-sectional dimensions. In our analysis, we introduce not only the market portfolio but also 15 industry portfolios comprising the entire market. Several bivariate GARCH models are estimated to obtain the covariance matrix between excess market returns and the industrial portfolios and the existence of a risk-return trade-off is analyzed through a cross-sectional approach using the information in all portfolios. It is obtained evidence for a positive and significant risk-return trade-off in the European market. This conclusion is robust for different GARCH specifications and is even more evident after controlling for the main financial crisis during the sample period.

Optimal insurance with counterparty default risk

We study the design of optimal insurance contracts when the insurer can default on its obligations. In our model default arises endogenously from the interaction of the insurance premium, the indemnity schedule and the insurer’s assets. This allows us to understand the joint effect of insolvency risk and background risk on efficient contracts. The results may shed light on the aggregate risk retention sched- ules observed in catastrophe reinsurance markets, and can assist in the design of (re)insurance programs and guarantee funds.

What drives corporate default risk premia? Evidence from the CDS market

This paper studies the evolution of the default risk premia for European firms during the years surrounding the recent credit crisis. We employ the information embedded in Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and Moody’s KMV EDF default probabilities to analyze the common factors driving this risk premia. The risk premium is characterized in several directions: Firstly, we perform a panel data analysis to capture the relationship between CDS spreads and actual default probabilities. Secondly, we employ the intensity framework of Jarrow et al. (2005) in order to measure the theoretical effect of risk premium on expected bond returns. Thirdly, we carry out a dynamic panel data to identify the macroeconomic sources of risk premium. Finally, a vector autoregressive model analyzes which proportion of the co-movement is attributable to financial or macro variables. Our estimations report coefficients for risk premium substantially higher than previously referred for US firms and a time varying behavior. A dominant factor explains around 60% of the common movements in risk premia. Additionally, empirical evidence suggests a public-to-private risk transfer between the sovereign CDS spreads and corporate risk premia.