Tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Gulf of Cadiz: fault model and recurrence

The Gulf of Cadiz, as part of the Azores-Gibraltar plate boundary, is recognized as a potential source of big earthquakes and tsunamis that may affect the bordering countries, as occurred on 1 November 1755. Preparing for the future, Portugal is establishing a national tsunami warning system in which the threat caused by any large-magnitude earthquake in the area is estimated from a comprehensive database of scenarios. In this paper we summarize the knowledge about the active tectonics in the Gulf of Cadiz and integrate the available seismological information in order to propose the generation model of destructive tsunamis to be applied in tsunami warnings. The fault model derived is then used to estimate the recurrence of large earthquakes using the fault slip rates obtained by Cunha et al. (2012) from thin-sheet neotectonic modelling. Finally we evaluate the consistency of seismicity rates derived from historical and instrumental catalogues with the convergence rates between Eurasia and Nubia given by plate kinematic models.

Design of a sea-level tsunami detection network for the Gulf of Cadiz

The devastating impact of the Sumatra tsunami of 26 December 2004, raised the question for scientists of how to forecast a tsunami threat. In 2005, the IOC-UNESCO XXIII assembly decided to implement a global tsunami warning system to cover the regions that were not yet protected, namely the Indian Ocean, the Caribbean and the North East Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (the NEAM region). Within NEAM, the Gulf of Cadiz is the more sensitive area, with an important record of devastating historical events. The objective of this paper is to present a preliminary design for a reliable tsunami detection network for the Gulf of Cadiz, based on a network of sea-level observatories. The tsunamigenic potential of this region has been revised in order to define the active tectonic structures. Tsunami hydrodynamic modeling and GIS technology have been used to identify the appropriate locations for the minimum number of sea-level stations. Results show that 3 tsunameters are required as the minimum number of stations necessary to assure an acceptable protection to the large coastal population in the Gulf of Cadiz. In addition, 29 tide gauge stations could be necessary to fully assess the effects of a tsunami along the affected coasts of Portugal, Spain and Morocco.

Evaluating Tsunami Impact on the Gulf of Cadiz Coast (Northeast Atlantic).

The Gulf of Cadiz coasts are exposed to tsunamis. Emergency planning tools are now taking into account this fact, especially because a series of historical occurrences were strikingly significant, having left strong evidence behind, in the mareographic records, the geological evidence or simply the memory of the populations. The study area is a strip along the Algarve coast, south Portugal, an area known to have been heavily impacted by the 1 November 1755 event. In this study we use two different tsunami scenarios generated by the rupture of two thrust faults identified in the area, corresponding to 8.1-8.3 magnitude earthquakes. Tsunami propagation and inundation computation is performed using a non-linear shallow water code with bottom friction. Numerical modeling results are presented in terms of flow depth and current velocity with maximum values of 7 m and 8 m/s for inundation depth and flow speed, respectively. These results constitute a valuable tool for local authorities, emergency and decision planners to define the priority zones where tsunami mitigation measures must be implemented and to develop tsunami-resilient communities.

Individual pension information: Recommendations for the case of Spain based on the experiences of other countries

The aim of this paper is to establish some basic guidelines to help draft the information letter sent to individual contributors should it be decided to use this model in the Spanish public pension system. With this end in mind and basing our work on the experiences of the most advanced countries in the field and the pioneering papers by Jackson (2005), Larsson et al. (2008) and Sunden (2009), we look into the concept of “individual pension information” and identify its most relevant characteristics. We then give a detailed description of two models, those in the United States and Sweden, and in particular look at how they are structured, what aspects could be improved and what their limitations are. Finally we make some recommendations of special interest for designing the model for Spain.

Mapping atmospheric pollutants emissions in European countries

In this paper we present a methodology which enables the graphical representation, in a bi-dimensional Euclidean space, of atmospheric pollutants emissions in European countries. This approach relies on the use of Multidimensional Unfolding (MDU), an exploratory multivariate data analysis technique. This technique illustrates both the relationships between the emitted gases and the gases and their geographical origins. The main contribution of this work concerns the evaluation of MDU solutions. We use simulated data to define thresholds for the model fitting measures, allowing the MDU output quality evaluation. The quality assessment of the model adjustment is thus carried out as a step before interpretation of the gas types and geographical origins results. The MDU maps analysis generates useful insights, with an immediate substantive result and enables the formulation of hypotheses for further analysis and modeling.

Water quality issues in rivers, lakes and reservoirs in Asian countries: an approach to the problems and the methodologies

Water covers over 70% of the Earth's surface, and is vital for all known forms of life. But only 3% of the Earth's water is fresh water, and less than 0.3% of all freshwater is in rivers, lakes, reservoirs and the atmosphere. However, rivers and lakes are an important part of fresh surface water, amounting to about 89%. In this Master Thesis dissertation, the focus is on three types of water bodies – rivers, lakes and reservoirs, and their water quality issues in Asian countries. The surface water quality in a region is largely determined both by the natural processes such as climate or geographic conditions, and the anthropogenic influences such as industrial and agricultural activities or land use conversion. The quality of the water can be affected by pollutants discharge from a specific point through a sewer pipe and also by extensive drainage from agriculture/urban areas and within basin. Hence, water pollutant sources can be divided into two categories: Point source pollution and Non-point source (NPS) pollution. Seasonal variations in precipitation and surface run-off have a strong effect on river discharge and the concentration of pollutants in water bodies. For example, in the rainy season, heavy and persistent rain wash off the ground, the runoff flow increases and may contain various kinds of pollutants and, eventually, enters the water bodies. In some cases, especially in confined water bodies, the quality may be positive related with rainfall in the wet season, because this confined type of fresh water systems allows high dilution of pollutants, decreasing their possible impacts. During the dry season, the quality of water is largely related to industrialization and urbanization pollution. The aim of this study is to identify the most common water quality problems in Asian countries and to enumerate and analyze the methodologies used for assessment of water quality conditions of both rivers and confined water bodies (lakes and reservoirs). Based on the evaluation of a sample of 57 papers, dated between 2000 and 2012, it was found that over the past decade, the water quality of rivers, lakes, and reservoirs in developing countries is being degraded. Water pollution and destruction of aquatic ecosystems have caused massive damage to the functions and integrity of water resources. The most widespread NPS in Asian countries and those which have the greatest spatial impacts are urban runoff and agriculture. Locally, mine waste runoff and rice paddy are serious NPS problems. The most relevant point pollution sources are the effluents from factories, sewage treatment plant, and public or household facilities. It was found that the most used methodology was unquestionably the monitoring activity, used in 49 of analyzed studies, accounting for 86%. Sometimes, data from historical databases were used as well. It can be seen that taking samples from the water body and then carry on laboratory work (chemical analyses) is important because it can give an understanding of the water quality. 6 papers (11%) used a method that combined monitoring data and modeling. 6 papers (11%) just applied a model to estimate the quality of water. Modeling is a useful resource when there is limited budget since some models are of free download and use. In particular, several of used models come from the U.S.A, but they have their own purposes and features, meaning that a careful application of the models to other countries and a critical discussion of the results are crucial. 5 papers (9%) focus on a method combining monitoring data and statistical analysis. When there is a huge data matrix, the researchers need an efficient way of interpretation of the information which is provided by statistics. 3 papers (5%) used a method combining monitoring data, statistical analysis and modeling. These different methods are all valuable to evaluate the water quality. It was also found that the evaluation of water quality was made as well by using other types of sampling different than water itself, and they also provide useful information to understand the condition of the water body. These additional monitoring activities are: Air sampling, sediment sampling, phytoplankton sampling and aquatic animal tissues sampling. Despite considerable progress in developing and applying control regulations to point and NPS pollution, the pollution status of rivers, lakes, and reservoirs in Asian countries is not improving. In fact, this reflects the slow pace of investment in new infrastructure for pollution control and growing population pressures. Water laws or regulations and public involvement in enforcement can play a constructive and indispensable role in environmental protection. In the near future, in order to protect water from further contamination, rapid action is highly needed to control the various kinds of effluents in one region. Environmental remediation and treatment of industrial effluent and municipal wastewaters is essential. It is also important to prevent the direct input of agricultural and mine site runoff. Finally, stricter environmental regulation for water quality is required to support protection and management strategies. It would have been possible to get further information based in the 57 sample of papers. For instance, it would have been interesting to compare the level of concentrations of some pollutants in the diferente Asian countries. However the limit of three months duration for this study prevented further work to take place. In spite of this, the study objectives were achieved: the work provided an overview of the most relevant water quality problems in rivers, lakes and reservoirs in Asian countries, and also listed and analyzed the most common methodologies.

Deep crustal structure across a young passive margin from wide-angle and reflection seismic data (The Sardinia Experiment) - I. Gulf of Lion's margin

The conjugate margins system of the Gulf of Lion and West Sardinia (GLWS) represents a unique natural laboratory for addressing fundamental questions about rifting due to its landlocked situation, its youth, its thick sedimentary layers, including prominent palaeo-marker such as the MSC event, and the amount of available data and multidisciplinary studies. The main goals of the SARDINIA experiment, were to (i) investigate the deep structure of the entire system within the two conjugate margins: the Gulf of Lion and West Sardinia, (ii) characterize the nature of the crust, and (iii) define the geometry of the basin and provide important constrains on its genesis. This paper presents the results of P-wave velocity modelling on three coincident near-vertical reflection multi-channel seismic (MCS) and wide-angle seismic profiles acquired in the Gulf of Lion, to a depth of 35 km. A companion paper [part II Afilhado et al., 2015] addresses the results of two other SARDINIA profiles located on the oriental conjugate West Sardinian margin. Forward wide-angle modelling of both data sets confirms that the margin is characterised by three distinct domains following the onshore unthinned, 33 km-thick continental crust domain: Domain I is bounded by two necking zones, where the crust thins respectively from 30 to 20 and from 20 to 7 km over a width of about 170 km; the outermost necking is imprinted by the well-known T-reflector at its crustal base; Domain II is characterised by a 7 km-thick crust with anomalous velocities ranging from 6 to 7.5 km/s; it represents the transition between the thinned continental crust (Domain I) and a very thin (only 4-5 km) "atypical" oceanic crust (Domain III). In Domain II, the hypothesis of the presence of exhumed mantle is falsified by our results: this domain may likely consist of a thin exhumed lower continental crust overlying a heterogeneous, intruded lower layer. Moreover, despite the difference in their magnetic signatures, Domains II and III present the very similar seismic velocities profiles, and we discuss the possibility of a connection between these two different domains.