Machine learning Vasicek model calibration with Gaussian processes

In this article, we calibrate the Vasicek interest rate model under the risk neutral measure by learning the model parameters using Gaussian processes for machine learning regression. The calibration is done by maximizing the likelihood of zero coupon bond log prices, using mean and covariance functions computed analytically, as well as likelihood derivatives with respect to the parameters. The maximization method used is the conjugate gradients. The only prices needed for calibration are zero coupon bond prices and the parameters are directly obtained in the arbitrage free risk neutral measure.

Brownian bridge and other path-dependent Gaussian processes vectorial simulation

The iterative simulation of the Brownian bridge is well known. In this article, we present a vectorial simulation alternative based on Gaussian processes for machine learning regression that is suitable for interpreted programming languages implementations. We extend the vectorial simulation of path-dependent trajectories to other Gaussian processes, namely, sequences of Brownian bridges, geometric Brownian motion, fractional Brownian motion, and Ornstein-Ulenbeck mean reversion process.

The Sticky Information Macro Model: Beyond Perfect Foresight

Sticky information monetary models have been used in the macroeconomic literature to explain some of the observed features regarding inflation dynamics. In this paper, we explore the consequences of relaxing the rational expectations assumption usually taken in this type of model; in particular, by considering expectations formed through adaptive learning, it is possible to arrive to results other than the trivial convergence to a fixed point long-term equilibrium. The results involve the possibility of endogenous cyclical motion (periodic and a-periodic), which emerges essentially in scenarios of hyperinflation. In low inflation settings, the introduction of learning implies a less severe impact of monetary shocks that, nevertheless, tend to last for additional time periods relative to the pure perfect foresight setup.

Equilibrium self-assembly of colloids with distinct interaction sites: Thermodynamics, percolation, and cluster distribution functions

We calculate the equilibrium thermodynamic properties, percolation threshold, and cluster distribution functions for a model of associating colloids, which consists of hard spherical particles having on their surfaces three short-ranged attractive sites (sticky spots) of two different types, A and B. The thermodynamic properties are calculated using Wertheim's perturbation theory of associating fluids. This also allows us to find the onset of self-assembly, which can be quantified by the maxima of the specific heat at constant volume. The percolation threshold is derived, under the no-loop assumption, for the correlated bond model: In all cases it is two percolated phases that become identical at a critical point, when one exists. Finally, the cluster size distributions are calculated by mapping the model onto an effective model, characterized by a-state-dependent-functionality (f) over bar and unique bonding probability (p) over bar. The mapping is based on the asymptotic limit of the cluster distributions functions of the generic model and the effective parameters are defined through the requirement that the equilibrium cluster distributions of the true and effective models have the same number-averaged and weight-averaged sizes at all densities and temperatures. We also study the model numerically in the case where BB interactions are missing. In this limit, AB bonds either provide branching between A-chains (Y-junctions) if epsilon(AB)/epsilon(AA) is small, or drive the formation of a hyperbranched polymer if epsilon(AB)/epsilon(AA) is large. We find that the theoretical predictions describe quite accurately the numerical data, especially in the region where Y-junctions are present. There is fairly good agreement between theoretical and numerical results both for the thermodynamic (number of bonds and phase coexistence) and the connectivity properties of the model (cluster size distributions and percolation locus).

Agrupamento multi-orador

Actualmente tem-se observado um aumento do volume de sinais de fala em diversas aplicações, que reforçam a necessidade de um processamento automático dos ficheiros. No campo do processamento automático destacam-se as aplicações de “diarização de orador”, que permitem catalogar os ficheiros de fala com a identidade de oradores e limites temporais de fala de cada um, através de um processo de segmentação e agrupamento. No contexto de agrupamento, este trabalho visa dar continuidade ao trabalho intitulado “Detecção do Orador”, com o desenvolvimento de um algoritmo de “agrupamento multi-orador” capaz de identificar e agrupar correctamente os oradores, sem conhecimento prévio do número ou da identidade dos oradores presentes no ficheiro de fala. O sistema utiliza os coeficientes “Mel Line Spectrum Frequencies” (MLSF) como característica acústica de fala, uma segmentação de fala baseada na energia e uma estrutura do tipo “Universal Background Model - Gaussian Mixture Model” (UBM-GMM) adaptado com o classificador “Support Vector Machine” (SVM). No trabalho foram analisadas três métricas de discriminação dos modelos SVM e a avaliação dos resultados foi feita através da taxa de erro “Speaker Error Rate” (SER), que quantifica percentualmente o número de segmentos “fala” mal classificados. O algoritmo implementado foi ajustado às características da língua portuguesa através de um corpus com 14 ficheiros de treino e 30 ficheiros de teste. Os ficheiros de treino dos modelos e classificação final, enquanto os ficheiros de foram utilizados para avaliar o desempenho do algoritmo. A interacção com o algoritmo foi dinamizada com a criação de uma interface gráfica que permite receber o ficheiro de teste, processá-lo, listar os resultados ou gerar um vídeo para o utilizador confrontar o sinal de fala com os resultados de classificação.

Impact of flavor-changing neutral current top quark interactions on BR(t -> bW)

We study the effect that flavor-changing neutral current interactions of the top quark will have on the branching ratio of charged decays of the top quark. We have performed an integrated analysis using Tevatron and B-factories data and with just the further assumption that the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix is unitary, we can obtain very restrictive bounds on the strong and electroweak flavor-changing neutral current branching ratios Br(t -> qX)< 4.0x10(-4), where X is any vector boson and a sum in q=u, c is implied.

Interest rate exposure of Spanish banks: A nonparametric analysis

Interest rate risk is one of the major financial risks faced by banks due to the very nature of the banking business. The most common approach in the literature has been to estimate the impact of interest rate risk on banks using a simple linear regression model. However, the relationship between interest rate changes and bank stock returns does not need to be exclusively linear. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the interest rate exposure of the Spanish banking industry employing both parametric and non parametric estimation methods. Its main contribution is to use, for the first time in the context of banks’ interest rate risk, a nonparametric regression technique that avoids the assumption of a specific functional form. One the one hand, it is found that the Spanish banking sector exhibits a remarkable degree of interest rate exposure, although the impact of interest rate changes on bank stock returns has significantly declined following the introduction of the euro. Further, a pattern of positive exposure emerges during the post-euro period. On the other hand, the results corresponding to the nonparametric model support the expansion of the conventional linear model in an attempt to gain a greater insight into the actual degree of exposure.

Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

Quantificação da difusão na ressonância magnética da mama: ADC e Kurtosis

Mestrado em Radiações Aplicadas às Tecnologias da Saúde. Área de especialização: Ressonância Magnética

Palaeomagnetic study of a subaerial volcanic ridge (Sao Jorge Island, Azores) for the past 1.3 Myr: evidence for the Cobb Mountain Subchron, volcano flank instability and tectonomagmatic implications

We present a palaeomagnetic study on 38 lava flows and 20 dykes encompassing the past 1.3 Myr on S. Jorge Island (Azores ArchipelagoNorth Atlantic Ocean). The sections sampled in the southeastern and central/western parts of the island record reversed and normal polarities, respectively. They indicate a mean palaeomagnetic pole (81.3 degrees N, 160.7 degrees E, K= 33 and A95= 3.4 degrees) with a latitude shallower than that expected from Geocentric Axial Dipole assumption, suggesting an effect of non-dipolar components of the Earth magnetic field. Virtual Geomagnetic Poles of eight flows and two dykes closely follow the contemporaneous records of the Cobb Mountain Subchron (ODP/DSDP programs) and constrain the age transition from reversed to normal polarity at ca. 1.207 +/- 0.017 Ma. Volcano flank instabilities, probably related to dyke emplacement along an NNWSSE direction, led to southwestward tilting of the lava pile towards the sea. Two spatially and temporally distinct dyke systems have been recognized on the island. The eastern is dominated by NNWSSE trending dykes emplaced before the end of the Matuyama Chron, whereas in the central/western parts the eruptive fissures oriented WNWESE controlled the westward growth of the S. Jorge Island during the Brunhes Chron. Both directions are consistent with the present-day regional stress conditions deduced from plate kinematics and tectonomorphology and suggest the emplacement of dykes along pre-existing fractures. The distinct timing and location of each dyke system likely results from a slight shift of the magmatic source.

Dispositional optimism is unidimensional or bidimensional? The Portuguese Revised Life Orientation Test

The aim of the study is to adapt and then discuss the appropriateness of the Life Orientation Test as a one or two dimension scale. The research includes two studies; one is composed of a sequential sample of 280 people with multiple sclerosis, 71% female, and another includes a convenience sample of 615 individuals from the community, 51.1% female. Because the construct is built upon a theoretical assumption that has one dimension, we examine the hypothesis of one or two factor solutions through confirmatory factor analysis, and the two-dimension solution premise demonstrates better adjustment for both samples. The other psychometric properties explored show appropriate results for the Portuguese sample, and similar to the original ones; the Test therefore seems appropriate for use in cross cultural studies. Based on our results, we discuss whether the questionnaire is a one or two dimension instrument, concluding that it appears appropriate to accept the recommendations of the original authors to use it as a one-dimensional tool and, when necessary, to use both dimensions. - RESUMO: El objetivo del estudio es adaptar y discutir la adecuación de la prueba de Orientación de la Vida en una o dos escalas de dimensión. La investigación engloba dos estudios, uno constituido por una muestra secuencial de 280 personas con esclerosis múltiple, 71% mujeres y otro con una muestra de conveniencia de la comunidad de 615 individuos, 51,1% del sexo femenino. Como el constructo se asienta sobre la presunción teórica de que tiene una dimensión, inspeccionamos la hipótesis de una o dos soluciones de factor a través del análisis factorial confirmatorio y la hipótesis de dos dimensiones manifiesta un mejor ajuste para ambas muestras. Las otras propiedades psicométricas exploradas muestran los resultados apropiados para la muestra portuguesa, y semejantes a los originales. Parece apropiado para los estudios culturales transversales. Basándonos en nuestros resultados, discutimos si el cuestionario es un instrumento de una o dos dimensiones, concluyéndose que parece conveniente seguir las recomendaciones de los autores originales, para utilizarlo como un instrumento unidimensional y, si fuera necesario necesario, utilizar cada una de las dimensiones.

Relatórios de sustentabilidade: que futuro? O papel dos auditores e da auditoria nesse futuro.

A presente investigação desenvolve o tema da sustentabilidade, ou dito de outra forma, desenvolvimento sustentável. Isto interessa aos países, às organizações e aos cidadãos em geral. Neste pressuposto, este trabalho centra-se nos relatório de sustentabilidade, designação que, actualmente, vem substituir outros que se sucederam ao longo dos tempos, por exemplo: relatórios de responsabilidade social; relatórios ambientais; relatórios de ambiente, saúde e segurança. Porém, os relatórios de sustentabilidade, para serem totalmente compreendidos, devem ser inseridos nos sistemas de informação e comunicação das organizações, onde é verificável que cada vez mais se quer prestar contas, sobre as acções desenvolvidas na esfera da sustentabilidade, de forma credível. No processo de verificação e validação, a auditoria e os auditores têm um papel crucial, contudo, verifica-se que teóricos e práticos, nomeadamente, as empresas de referência mostram que a "sustentabilidade" não deve ser tratada "à parte" mas estar presente em tudo o que é realizado, e neste sentido, as três dimensões que a revelam: ecónomica, social e ambiental. Neste quadro, o objectivo desta dissertação anda em torno de se perceber qual será o futuro dos relatórios de sustentabilidade. O trabalho desenvolvido confirma a problemática que guiou o estudo. Tende-se e é recomendável que as organizações venham a elaborar relatórios únicos integrados, não obstante da possibilidade da existência de relatórios específicos e subsistemas de informação e comunicação, centrados no "verde".

Instrumentos de apoio à gestão estratégica e ao desempenho organizacional dos fisioterapeutas em unidades privadas de fisioterapia

Mestrado em Intervenção Sócio-Organizacional na Saúde - Área de especialização: Políticas de Administração e Gestão de Serviços de Saúde.

O efeito de um programa de fisioterapia na estabilização do prematuro

Mestrado em Fisioterapia.

O uso de palmilhas de contato total e o impacte nas alterações posturais no trabalho em ortostatismo

Mestrado em Higiene e Segurança no Trabalho