23 resultados para Forecasting methods

em Repositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa - Portugal


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In this work, 14 primary schools of Lisbon city, Portugal, followed a questionnaire of the ISAAC - International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood Program, in 2009/2010. The questionnaire contained questions to identify children with respiratory diseases (wheeze, asthma and rhinitis). Total particulate matter (TPM) was passively collected inside two classrooms of each of 14 primary schools. Two types of filter matrices were used to collect TPM: Millipore (IsoporeTM) polycarbonate and quartz. Three campaigns were selected for the measurement of TPM: Spring, Autumn and Winter. The highest difference between the two types of filters is that the mass of collected particles was higher in quartz filters than in polycarbonate filters, even if their correlation is excellent. The highest TPM depositions occurred between October 2009 and March 2010, when related with rhinitis proportion. Rhinitis was found to be related to TPM when the data were grouped seasonally and averaged for all the schools. For the data of 2006/2007, the seasonal variation was found to be related to outdoor particle deposition (below 10 μm).

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This paper presents an artificial neural network approach for short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal. The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. The accuracy of the wind power forecasting attained with the proposed approach is evaluated against persistence and ARIMA approaches, reporting the numerical results from a real-world case study.

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The aim of this paper is to analyze the forecasting ability of the CARR model proposed by Chou (2005) using the S&P 500. We extend the data sample, allowing for the analysis of different stock market circumstances and propose the use of various range estimators in order to analyze their forecasting performance. Our results show that there are two range-based models that outperform the forecasting ability of the GARCH model. The Parkinson model is better for upward trends and volatilities which are higher and lower than the mean while the CARR model is better for downward trends and mean volatilities.

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Chromium dioxide (CrO2) has been extensively used in the magnetic recording industry. However, it is its ferromagnetic half-metallic nature that has more recently attracted much attention, primarily for the development of spintronic devices. CrO2 is the only stoichiometric binary oxide theoretically predicted to be fully spin polarized at the Fermi level. It presents a Curie temperature of ∼ 396 K, i.e. well above room temperature, and a magnetic moment of 2 mB per formula unit. However an antiferromagnetic native insulating layer of Cr2O3 is always present on the CrO2 surface which enhances the CrO2 magnetoresistance and might be used as a barrier in magnetic tunnel junctions.

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Background: With the decrease of DNA sequencing costs, sequence-based typing methods are rapidly becoming the gold standard for epidemiological surveillance. These methods provide reproducible and comparable results needed for a global scale bacterial population analysis, while retaining their usefulness for local epidemiological surveys. Online databases that collect the generated allelic profiles and associated epidemiological data are available but this wealth of data remains underused and are frequently poorly annotated since no user-friendly tool exists to analyze and explore it. Results: PHYLOViZ is platform independent Java software that allows the integrated analysis of sequence-based typing methods, including SNP data generated from whole genome sequence approaches, and associated epidemiological data. goeBURST and its Minimum Spanning Tree expansion are used for visualizing the possible evolutionary relationships between isolates. The results can be displayed as an annotated graph overlaying the query results of any other epidemiological data available. Conclusions: PHYLOViZ is a user-friendly software that allows the combined analysis of multiple data sources for microbial epidemiological and population studies. It is freely available at http://www.phyloviz.net.

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In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. In this paper, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference approach is proposed for short-term wind power forecasting. Results from a real-world case study are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results obtained with other approaches. Numerical results are presented and conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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A novel hybrid approach, combining wavelet transform, particle swarm optimization, and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, is proposed in this paper for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

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Personal memories composed of digital pictures are very popular at the moment. To retrieve these media items annotation is required. During the last years, several approaches have been proposed in order to overcome the image annotation problem. This paper presents our proposals to address this problem. Automatic and semi-automatic learning methods for semantic concepts are presented. The automatic method is based on semantic concepts estimated using visual content, context metadata and audio information. The semi-automatic method is based on results provided by a computer game. The paper describes our proposals and presents their evaluations.

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In this paper, a hybrid intelligent approach is proposed for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. The proposed approach is based on the wavelet transform and a hybrid of neural networks and fuzzy logic. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This paper proposes artificial neural networks in combination with wavelet transform for short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal. The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. Results from a real-world case study are presented. A comparison is carried out, taking into account the results obtained with other approaches. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Tomographic image can be degraded, partially by patient based attenuation. The aim of this paper is to quantitatively verify the effects of attenuation correction methods Chang and CT in 111In studies through the analysis of profiles from abdominal SPECT, correspondent to a uniform radionuclide uptake organ, the left kidney.

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Epidemiological studies showed increased prevalence of respiratory symptoms and adverse changes in pulmonary function parameters in poultry workers, corroborating the increased exposure to risk factors, such as fungal load and their metabolites. This study aimed to determine the occupational exposure threat due to fungal contamination caused by the toxigenic isolates belonging to the complex of the species of Aspergillus flavus and also isolates fromAspergillus fumigatus species complex. The study was carried out in seven Portuguese poultries, using cultural and molecularmethodologies. For conventional/cultural methods, air, surfaces, and litter samples were collected by impaction method using the Millipore Air Sampler. For the molecular analysis, air samples were collected by impinger method using the Coriolis μ air sampler. After DNA extraction, samples were analyzed by real-time PCR using specific primers and probes for toxigenic strains of the Aspergillus flavus complex and for detection of isolates from Aspergillus fumigatus complex. Through conventional methods, and among the Aspergillus genus, different prevalences were detected regarding the presence of Aspergillus flavus and Aspergillus fumigatus species complexes, namely: 74.5 versus 1.0% in the air samples, 24.0 versus 16.0% in the surfaces, 0 versus 32.6% in new litter, and 9.9 versus 15.9%in used litter. Through molecular biology, we were able to detect the presence of aflatoxigenic strains in pavilions in which Aspergillus flavus did not grow in culture. Aspergillus fumigatus was only found in one indoor air sample by conventional methods. Using molecular methodologies, however, Aspergillus fumigatus complex was detected in seven indoor samples from three different poultry units. The characterization of fungal contamination caused by Aspergillus flavus and Aspergillus fumigatus raises the concern of occupational threat not only due to the detected fungal load but also because of the toxigenic potential of these species.

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This project was developed to fully assess the indoor air quality in archives and libraries from a fungal flora point of view. It uses classical methodologies such as traditional culture media – for the viable fungi – and modern molecular biology protocols, especially relevant to assess the non-viable fraction of the biological contaminants. Denaturing high-performance liquid chromatography (DHPLC) has emerged as an alternative to denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) and has already been applied to the study of a few bacterial communities. We propose the application of DHPLC to the study of fungal colonization on paper-based archive materials. This technology allows for the identification of each component of a mixture of fungi based on their genetic variation. In a highly complex mixture of microbial DNA this method can be used simply to study the population dynamics, and it also allows for sample fraction collection, which can, in many cases, be immediately sequenced, circumventing the need for cloning. Some examples of the methodological application are shown. Also applied is fragment length analysis for the study of mixed Candida samples. Both of these methods can later be applied in various fields, such as clinical and sand sample analysis. So far, the environmental analyses have been extremely useful to determine potentially pathogenic/toxinogenic fungi such as Stachybotrys sp., Aspergillus niger, Aspergillus fumigatus, and Fusarium sp. This work will hopefully lead to more accurate evaluation of environmental conditions for both human health and the preservation of documents.