Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

The impact of financial disclosures in the measurement of notional interest rate swaps in the period of 2007-2012

Mestrado em Contabilidade

Volatilidade implícita: Importância na valorização das opções financeiras e significado dos índices de volatilidade implícita

Mestrado em Contabilidade Internacional

Design of improved rail-to-rail low-distortion and low-stress switches in advanced CMOS technologies

This paper describes the efficient design of an improved and dedicated switched-capacitor (SC) circuit capable of linearizing CMOS switches to allow SC circuits to reach low distortion levels. The described circuit (SC linearization control circuit, SLC) has the advantage over conventional clock-bootstrapping circuits of exhibiting low-stress, since large gate voltages are avoided. This paper presents exhaustive corner simulation results of a SC sample-and-hold (S/H) circuit which employs the proposed and optimized circuits, together with the experimental evaluation of a complete 10-bit ADC utilizing the referred S/H circuit. These results show that the SLC circuits can reduce distortion and increase dynamic linearity above 12 bits for wide input signal bandwidths.

Evaluation of exposure index (IgM) in orthopaedic radiography

The exposure index (lgM) obtained from a radiographic image may be a useful feedback indicator to the radiographer about the appropriate exposure level in routine clinical practice. This study aims to evaluate lgM in orthopaedic radiography performed in the standard clinical environment. We analysed the lgM of 267 exposures performed with an AGFA CR system. The mean value of lgM in our sample is 2.14. A significant difference (P=0.000<0.05) from 1.96 lgM reference is shown. Data show that 72% of exposures are above the 1.96 lgM and 42% are above the limit of 2.26. Median values of lgM are above 1.96 and below 2.26 for Speed class (SC) 200 (2.16) and SC400 (2.13). The interquartile range is lower in SC400 than in SC200. Data seem to indicate that lgM values are above the manufacturer’s reference of 1.96. Departmental exposure charts should be optimised to reduce the dose given to patients.

Open and closed positions and stock index futures volatility

In this paper we analyze the relationship between volatility in index futures markets and the number of open and closed positions. We observe that, although in general both positions are positively correlated with contemporaneous volatility, in the case of S&P 500, only the number of open positions has influence over the volatility. Additionally, we observe a stronger positive relationship on days characterized by extreme movements of these contracting movements dominating the market. Finally, our findings suggest that day-traders are not associated to an increment of volatility, whereas uninformed traders, both opening and closing their positions, have to do with it.

Changes in the influence of board characterisitcs on corporate results due to the recent global financial crisis

The main purpose of this study is to analyse the changes caused by the global financial crisis on the influence of board characteristics on corporate results, in terms of corporate performance, corporate risk-taking, and earnings management. Sample comprises S&P 500 listed firms during 2002-2008. This study reveals that the environmental conditions call for different behaviour from directors to fulfil their responsibilities and suggests changes in normative and voluntary guidelines for improving good practices in the boardroom.

A model to forecast financial failure, in non financial galician SMES

We are concerned with providing more empirical evidence on forecast failure, developing forecast models, and examining the impact of events such as audit reports. A joint consideration of classic financial ratios and relevant external indicators leads us to build a basic prediction model focused in non-financial Galician SMEs. Explanatory variables are relevant financial indicators from the viewpoint of the financial logic and financial failure theory. The paper explores three mathematical models: discriminant analysis, Logit, and linear multivariate regression. We conclude that, even though they both offer high explanatory and predictive abilities, Logit and MDA models should be used and interpreted jointly.

Volatility regimes for the VIX index

This article presents a Markov chain framework to characterize the behavior of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX index). Two possible regimes are considered: high volatility and low volatility. The specification accounts for deviations from normality and the existence of persistence in the evolution of the VIX index. Since the time evolution of the VIX index seems to indicate that its conditional variance is not constant over time, I consider two different versions of the model. In the first one, the variance of the index is a function of the volatility regime, whereas the second version includes an autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) specification for the conditional variance of the index.

More than maternal sensitivity shapes attachment : infant coping and temperament

The aim of this longitudinal studywas to investigate the effect of a set of factors from multiple levels of influence: infant temperament, infant regulatory behavior, and maternal sensitivity on infant’s attachment. Our sample consisted of 48 infants born prematurely and their mothers. At 1 and 3 months of age, mothers described their infants’behavior using the Escala de Temperamento do Beb´e. At 3 months of age, infants’ capacity to regulate stress was evaluated during Tronick’s Face-to-Face Still-Face (FFSF) paradigm. At 9 months of age, mothers’ sensitivity was evaluated during free play using the CARE-Index. At 12 months of age, infants’ attachment security was assessed during Ainsworth’s Strange Situation. A total of 16 infants were classified as securely attached, 17 as insecure-avoidant, and 15 as insecure-resistant. Mothers of securely attached infantswere more likely than mothers of insecure infants to describe their infants as less difficult and to be more sensitive to their infants in free play. In turn, secure infants exhibited more positive responses during the Still-Face. Infants classified as insecureavoidant were more likely to self-comfort during the Still-Face and had mothers who were more controlling during free play. Insecure-resistant exhibited higher levels of negative arousal during the Still-Face and had mothers who were more unresponsive in free play. These findings show that attachment quality is influenced bymultiple factors, including infant temperament, coping behavior, and maternal sensitivity.

Reactividade infantil e a qualidade da interacção mãe-filho

No quadro dos estudos sobre o relacionamento mãe-filho, procurámos averiguar a relação entre a reactividade infantil observada em condições de stress e a qualidade do comportamento interactivo infantil e materno em jogo livre. Para o efeito, seleccionámos uma amostrade 40 díades mãe-filho cujos bebés tinham cerca de 3 meses e não apresentavam nenhuma condição declarada de risco. A qualidade da interacção mãe-filho foi avaliada em jogo livre através da escala CARE-Index. Para testar a reactividade infantil submetemos os bebés à situação experimental Still-Face. Os resultados mostram que a reactividade infantil expressa naquela situação laboratorial não é independente do comportamento dos bebés em jogo livre. Com efeito, os bebés com maior dificuldade em conformar-se com a ausência de resposta materna apresentam um comportamento menos cooperativo e difícil em jogo livre. Em sentido inverso, os bebés que em jogo livre são menos participativos apresentam menores índices de reactividade negativa quando a mãe mantém a cara inexpressiva. Em termos diádicos, verificamos que existe uma forte correlação entre o comportamento cooperativo do bebé e a sensibilidade materna em jogo livre. Os resultados são discutidos no quadro do desenvolvimento dos processos de interacção mãe e filho.

Genus and Braid Index Associated to Sequences of Renormalizable Lorenz Maps

We describe the Lorenz links generated by renormalizable Lorenz maps with reducible kneading invariant (K(f)(-), = K(f)(+)) = (X, Y) * (S, W) in terms of the links corresponding to each factor. This gives one new kind of operation that permits us to generate new knots and links from the ones corresponding to the factors of the *-product. Using this result we obtain explicit formulas for the genus and the braid index of this renormalizable Lorenz knots and links. Then we obtain explicit formulas for sequences of these invariants, associated to sequences of renormalizable Lorenz maps with kneading invariant (X, Y) * (S,W)*(n), concluding that both grow exponentially. This is specially relevant, since it is known that topological entropy is constant on the archipelagoes of renormalization.

Wind turbines equipped with fractional-order controllers: Stress on the mechanical drive train due to a converter control malfunction

This paper is on variable-speed wind turbines with permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG). Three different drive train mass models and three different topologies for the power-electronic converters are considered. The three different topologies considered are respectively a matrix, a two-level and a multilevel converter. A novel control strategy, based on fractional-order controllers, is proposed for the wind turbines. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the behaviour of the wind turbines during a converter control malfunction, considering the fractional-order controllers. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Evolução da divulgação de informação sobre os benefícios dos empregados: o caso das empresas do PSI 20 nos anos de 2007 a 2009

Mestrado em Contabilidade

Os swaps de taxas de juro como instrumentos de cobertura de risco nas demonstrações financeiras

Mestrado em Contabilidade