Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

Self-Scheduling for energy and spinning reserve of wind/CSP plants by a MILP approach

This paper is on the self-scheduling for a power producer taking part in day-ahead joint energy and spinning reserve markets and aiming at a short-term coordination of wind power plants with concentrated solar power plants having thermal energy storage. The short-term coordination is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming problem given as the maximization of profit subjected to technical operation constraints, including the ones related to a transmission line. Probability density functions are used to model the variability of the hourly wind speed and the solar irradiation in regard to a negative correlation. Case studies based on an Iberian Peninsula wind and concentrated solar power plants are presented, providing the optimal energy and spinning reserve for the short-term self-scheduling in order to unveil the coordination benefits and synergies between wind and solar resources. Results and sensitivity analysis are in favour of the coordination, showing an increase on profit, allowing for spinning reserve, reducing the need for curtailment, increasing the transmission line capacity factor. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Otimização estocástica para a exploração de centrais de concentração solar considerando incerteza e risco

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Eletrotécnica

A beautiful day/Um dia lindo

Tradução da peça.