24 resultados para Database search Evidential value Bayesian decision theory Influence diagrams
em Repositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa - Portugal
Resumo:
In the last decades considerations about equipments' availability became an important issue, as well as its dependence on components characteristics such as reliability and maintainability. This is particularly of outstanding importance if one is dealing with high risk industrial equipments, where these factors play an important and fundamental role in risk management when safety or huge economic values are in discussion. As availability is a function of reliability, maintainability, and maintenance support activities, the main goal is to improve one or more of these factors. This paper intends to show how maintainability can influence availability and present a methodology to select the most important attributes for maintainability using a partial Multi Criteria Decision Making (pMCDM). Improvements in maintainability can be analyzed assuming it as a probability related with a restore probability density function [g(t)].
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Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).
Resumo:
Three different methods were used to introduce 1.0 wt.% of Pt in bifunctional Pt/MCM-22 zeolite catalysts: ion exchange with Pt(NH3)(4)(2+), incipient wetness impregnation with PtCl6H2 and mechanical mixture with Pt/Al2O3. The Pt dispersion was estimated by transmission electron microscopy and the hydrogenating activity with toluene hydrogenation at 110 degrees C. From these experiments, it can be concluded that with the ion exchanged sample, platinum was located within the inner micropores and on the outer surface, whereas with the impregnated one, platinum was essentially on the outer surface under the form of large particles. With all the samples there is a fast initial decrease in the activity for n-hexane hydroisomerisation at 250 degrees C. With exchanged and impregnated samples, this decrease is followed by a plateau, the activity value being then higher with impregnated sample. For the sample prepared by mechanical mixture a continuous decrease in activity can be observed. All these differences can be related with the distinct locations of Pt.
Resumo:
This paper describes a multi-agent based simulation (MABS) framework to construct an artificial electric power market populated with learning agents. The artificial market, named TEMMAS (The Electricity Market Multi-Agent Simulator), explores the integration of two design constructs: (i) the specification of the environmental physical market properties and (ii) the specification of the decision-making (deliberative) and reactive agents. TEMMAS is materialized in an experimental setup involving distinct power generator companies that operate in the market and search for the trading strategies that best exploit their generating units' resources. The experimental results show a coherent market behavior that emerges from the overall simulated environment.
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In this paper, a mixed-integer nonlinear approach is proposed to support decision-making for a hydro power producer, considering a head-dependent hydro chain. The aim is to maximize the profit of the hydro power producer from selling energy into the electric market. As a new contribution to earlier studies, a risk aversion criterion is taken into account, as well as head-dependency. The volatility of the expected profit is limited through the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). The proposed approach has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems.
Resumo:
An experimental and theoretical study of the electro-rheological effects observed in the nematic phase of 4-n-heptyl-4'-cyanobiphenyl has been conducted. This liquid crystal appears to be a model system, in which the observed rheological behaviour can be interpreted by the Leslie-Ericksen continuum theory for low molecular weight liquid crystals. Flow curves are illustrated at different temperatures and under the influence of an external electric field ranging from 0 to 3 kV mm-1, applied perpendicular to the direction of flow. Also presented is the apparent viscosity as a function of temperature, over similar values of electric field, obtained at different shear rates. A master flow curve has been constructed for each temperature by dividing the shear rate by the square of the electric field and multiplying by the square of a reference value of electric field. In a log-log plot, two Newtonian plateaux are found to appear at low and high shear rates, connected by a shear-thinning region. We have applied the Leslie-Ericksen continuum theory, in which the director alignment angle is a function of the electric field and the flow field boundary conditions are neglected, to determine viscoelastic parameters and the dielectric anisotropy.
Resumo:
Este trabalho foi efectuado com o propósito de interpretar, compreender e explicar algumas ferramentas de simulação de processos, em particular o Aspen Energy Analyzer (AEA), o Aspen Economic Evaluation (AEE) e o seu funcionamento integrado com o Aspen Hysys(AH). O AH é uma ferramenta de modelação de processos para a concepção de projectos de engenharia química, o AEA é uma ferramenta de modelação de redes de integração energética. O AEE integrado no AH é uma ferramenta que permite incorporar estudos económicos numa fase preliminar do desenvolvimento de um projecto de engenharia. A abordagem a este trabalho foi efectuada através do estudo de Casos. O Caso I foi baseado na resolução de um problema no AEA através da construção e optimização de uma rede de permutadores de calor. Os Casos II e III foram baseados na construção de um flowsheet de produção de Benzeno e de Cloreto de Vinil, respectivamente, e cada Caso foi dividido em dois cenários diferentes. Para o efeito foram utilizados os softwares AEA para a integração energética dos processos, o AH para construção do fluxograma do processo e o AEE para os estudos económicos dos diferentes cenários. Finalmente, os Casos IV e V dizem respeito à resolução de um problema de integração energética. O Caso IV foi baseado num problema de optimização da rede de permutadores através do aumento da sua área. Já o Caso V foi baseado na informação inicial das correntes do caso anterior e em dois cenários diferentes, nos quais foi estudada a influência dos preços das utilidades na construção da rede de permutadores. A conclusão foi que as ferramentas de modelação, particularmente o AH, o AEA e o AEE são uma mais-valia extraordinária para ajudar o utilizador na tomada de decisões em fases bastante preliminares da engenharia de processos.
Resumo:
Collaborative networks are typically formed by heterogeneous and autonomous entities, and thus it is natural that each member has its own set of core-values. Since these values somehow drive the behaviour of the involved entities, the ability to quickly identify partners with compatible or common core-values represents an important element for the success of collaborative networks. However, tools to assess or measure the level of alignment of core-values are lacking. Since the concept of 'alignment' in this context is still ill-defined and shows a multifaceted nature, three perspectives are discussed. The first one uses a causal maps approach in order to capture, structure, and represent the influence relationships among core-values. This representation provides the basis to measure the alignment in terms of the structural similarity and influence among value systems. The second perspective considers the compatibility and incompatibility among core-values in order to define the alignment level. Under this perspective we propose a fuzzy inference system to estimate the alignment level, since this approach allows dealing with variables that are vaguely defined, and whose inter-relationships are difficult to define. Another advantage provided by this method is the possibility to incorporate expert human judgment in the definition of the alignment level. The last perspective uses a belief Bayesian network method, and was selected in order to assess the alignment level based on members' past behaviour. An example of application is presented where the details of each method are discussed.
Resumo:
Nowadays, the cooperative intelligent transport systems are part of a largest system. Transportations are modal operations integrated in logistics and, logistics is the main process of the supply chain management. The supply chain strategic management as a simultaneous local and global value chain is a collaborative/cooperative organization of stakeholders, many times in co-opetition, to perform a service to the customers respecting the time, place, price and quality levels. The transportation, like other logistics operations must add value, which is achieved in this case through compression lead times and order fulfillments. The complex supplier's network and the distribution channels must be efficient and the integral visibility (monitoring and tracing) of supply chain is a significant source of competitive advantage. Nowadays, the competition is not discussed between companies but among supply chains. This paper aims to evidence the current and emerging manufacturing and logistics system challenges as a new field of opportunities for the automation and control systems research community. Furthermore, the paper forecasts the use of radio frequency identification (RFID) technologies integrated into an information and communication technologies (ICT) framework based on distributed artificial intelligence (DAI) supported by a multi-agent system (MAS), as the most value advantage of supply chain management (SCM) in a cooperative intelligent logistics systems. Logistical platforms (production or distribution) as nodes of added value of supplying and distribution networks are proposed as critical points of the visibility of the inventory, where these technological needs are more evident.
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This work reports on the synthesis of CrO2 thin films by atmospheric pressure CVD using chromium trioxide (CrO3) and oxygen. Highly oriented (100) CrO2 films containing highly oriented (0001) Cr2O3 were grown onto Al2O3(0001) substrates. Films display a sharp magnetic transition at 375 K and a saturation magnetization of 1.92 mu(B)/f.u., close to the bulk value of 2 mu(B)/f.u. for the CrO2.
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A crucial method for investigating patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) is the calculation of the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). It is, consequently, imperative to precisely estimate the value of LVEF--a process that can be done with myocardial perfusion scintigraphy. Therefore, the present study aimed to establish and compare the estimation performance of the quantitative parameters of the reconstruction methods filtered backprojection (FBP) and ordered-subset expectation maximization (OSEM). Methods: A beating-heart phantom with known values of end-diastolic volume, end-systolic volume, and LVEF was used. Quantitative gated SPECT/quantitative perfusion SPECT software was used to obtain these quantitative parameters in a semiautomatic mode. The Butterworth filter was used in FBP, with the cutoff frequencies between 0.2 and 0.8 cycles per pixel combined with the orders of 5, 10, 15, and 20. Sixty-three reconstructions were performed using 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, and 16 OSEM subsets, combined with several iterations: 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 16, 32, and 64. Results: With FBP, the values of end-diastolic, end-systolic, and the stroke volumes rise as the cutoff frequency increases, whereas the value of LVEF diminishes. This same pattern is verified with the OSEM reconstruction. However, with OSEM there is a more precise estimation of the quantitative parameters, especially with the combinations 2 iterations × 10 subsets and 2 iterations × 12 subsets. Conclusion: The OSEM reconstruction presents better estimations of the quantitative parameters than does FBP. This study recommends the use of 2 iterations with 10 or 12 subsets for OSEM and a cutoff frequency of 0.5 cycles per pixel with the orders 5, 10, or 15 for FBP as the best estimations for the left ventricular volumes and ejection fraction quantification in myocardial perfusion scintigraphy.
Resumo:
Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras
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We investigate the influence of strong directional, or bonding, interactions on the phase diagram of complex fluids, and in particular on the liquid-vapour critical point. To this end we revisit a simple model and theory for associating fluids which consist of spherical particles having a hard-core repulsion, complemented by three short-ranged attractive sites on the surface (sticky spots). Two of the spots are of type A and one is of type B; the interactions between each pair of spots have strengths [image omitted], [image omitted] and [image omitted]. The theory is applied over the whole range of bonding strengths and results are interpreted in terms of the equilibrium cluster structures of the coexisting phases. In systems where unlike sites do not interact (i.e. where [image omitted]), the critical point exists all the way to [image omitted]. By contrast, when [image omitted], there is no critical point below a certain finite value of [image omitted]. These somewhat surprising results are rationalised in terms of the different network structures of the two systems: two long AA chains are linked by one BB bond (X-junction) in the former case, and by one AB bond (Y-junction) in the latter. The vapour-liquid transition may then be viewed as the condensation of these junctions and we find that X-junctions condense for any attractive [image omitted] (i.e. for any fraction of BB bonds), whereas condensation of the Y-junctions requires that [image omitted] be above a finite threshold (i.e. there must be a finite fraction of AB bonds).
Resumo:
Susceptibility Weighted Image (SWI) is a Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) technique that combines high spatial resolution and sensitivity to provide magnetic susceptibility differences between tissues. It is extremely sensitive to venous blood due to its iron content of deoxyhemoglobin. The aim of this study was to evaluate, through the SWI technique, the differences in cerebral venous vasculature according to the variation of blood pressure values. 20 subjects divided in two groups (10 hypertensive and 10 normotensive patients) underwent a MRI system with a Siemens® scanner model Avanto of 1.5T using a synergy head coil (4 channels). The obtained sequences were T1w, T2w-FLAIR, T2* and SWI. The value of Contrast-to-Noise Ratio (CNR) was assessed in MinIP (Minimum Intensity Projection) and Magnitude images, through drawing free hand ROIs in venous structures: Superior Sagittal Sinus (SSS) Internal Cerebral Vein (ICV) and Sinus Confluence (SC). The obtained values were presented in descriptive statistics-quartiles and extremes diagrams. The results were compared between groups. CNR shown higher values for normotensive group in MinIP (108.89 ± 6.907) to ICV; (238.73 ± 18.556) to SC and (239.384 ± 52.303) to SSS. These values are bigger than images from Hypertensive group about 46 a.u. in average. Comparing the results of Magnitude and MinIP images, there were obtained lower CNR values for the hypertensive group. There were differences in the CNR values between both groups, being these values more expressive in the large vessels-SSS and SC. The SWI is a potential technique to evaluate and characterize the blood pressure variation in the studied vessels adding a physiological perspective to MRI and giving a new approach to the radiological vascular studies.