The portuguese insurance industry: basis for strategic process decision

Nowadays, the Portuguese insurance industry operates in a market with a much more aggressive structure than a few decades ago. Markets and the economy have become globalised since the last decade of the 20th century. Market forces have gradually shifted – power is now mainly on the demand side. In order to meet the new requirements, the insurance industry must develop a strong strategic ability to respond to constant changes of the new international economic order.One of the basic aspects of this strategic development will focus on the ability to predict the future. We introduce the subject by briefly describing the sector, its organisational structure in the Portuguese market, and challenges arising from the development of the European Union. We then analyse the economic and financial structure of the sector. From this point of view, we aim at the possibility of designing models that could explain the demand for insurance, claims and technical reserves evolution. Such models, (even if based on the past), would resolve, at least partly, one of the greatest difficulties experienced by insurance companies when estimating the budget. Thus, we examine the existence of variables that explain the previous points, which are capable of forming a basis for designing models that are simple but efficient, and can be used for strategic planning.

Optimal insurance with counterparty default risk

We study the design of optimal insurance contracts when the insurer can default on its obligations. In our model default arises endogenously from the interaction of the insurance premium, the indemnity schedule and the insurer’s assets. This allows us to understand the joint effect of insolvency risk and background risk on efficient contracts. The results may shed light on the aggregate risk retention sched- ules observed in catastrophe reinsurance markets, and can assist in the design of (re)insurance programs and guarantee funds.

Tools for testing the Solvency Capital Requirement for life insurance

Longevity risk is one of the major risks that an insurance company or a pension fund has to deal with and it is expected that its importance will grow in the near future. In agreement with these considerations, in Solvency II regulation the Standard formula furnished for calculating the Solvency Capital Requirement explicitly considers this kind of risk. According to the new European rules in our paper we suggest a multiperiod approach to evaluate the SCR for longevity risk. We propose a backtesting framework for measuring the consistency of SCR calculations for life insurance policies.

Damage detection and quantification using transmissibility

Structures experience various types of loads along their lifetime, which can be either static or dynamic and may be associated to phenomena of corrosion and chemical attack, among others. As a consequence, different types of structural damage can be produced; the deteriorated structure may have its capacity affected, leading to excessive vibration problems or even possible failure. It is very important to develop methods that are able to simultaneously detect the existence of damage and to quantify its extent. In this paper the authors propose a method to detect and quantify structural damage, using response transmissibilities measured along the structure. Some numerical simulations are presented and a comparison is made with results using frequency response functions. Experimental tests are also undertaken to validate the proposed technique. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Micronutrients intake associated with DNA damage assessed by in a human biomonitoring study

Nutrition science has evolved into a multidisciplinary field that applies molecular biology and integrates individual health with the epidemiologic investigation of population health. Nutritional genomics studies the functional interaction of food and its components, macro and micronutrients, with the genome at the molecular, cellular, and systemic level. Diet can influence cancer development in several ways, namely direct action of carcinogens in food that can damage DNA, diet components (macro or micronutrients) that can block or induce enzymes involved in activation or deactivation of carcinogenic substances. Moreover, inadequate intake of some molecules involved in DNA synthesis, repair or methylation can influence mutation rate or changes in gene expression. Several studies support the idea that diet can influence the risk of cancer; however information concerning the precise dietary factor that determines human cancer is an ongoing debate. A lot of epidemiological studies, involving food frequency questionnaires, have been developed providing important information concerning diet and cancer, however, diet is a complex composite of various nutrients (macro and micronutrients) and non-nutritive food constituents that makes the search for specific factors almost limitless.

Damage detection in structures using a transmissibility-based Mahalanobis distance

In this paper, a damage-detection approach using the Mahalanobis distance with structural forced dynamic response data, in the form of transmissibility, is proposed. Transmissibility, as a damage-sensitive feature, varies in accordance with the damage level. Besides, Mahalanobis distance can distinguish the damaged structural state condition from the undamaged one by condensing the baseline data. For comparison reasons, the Mahalanobis distance results using transmissibility are compared with those using frequency response functions. The experiment results reveal quite a significant capacity for damage detection, and the comparison between the use of transmissibility and frequency response functions shows that, in both cases, the different damage scenarios could be well detected. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Single side damage simulations and detection in beam-like structures

Beam-like structures are the most common components in real engineering, while single side damage is often encountered. In this study, a numerical analysis of single side damage in a free-free beam is analysed with three different finite element models; namely solid, shell and beam models for demonstrating their performance in simulating real structures. Similar to experiment, damage is introduced into one side of the beam, and natural frequencies are extracted from the simulations and compared with experimental and analytical results. Mode shapes are also analysed with modal assurance criterion. The results from simulations reveal a good performance of the three models in extracting natural frequencies, and solid model performs better than shell while shell model performs better than beam model under intact state. For damaged states, the natural frequencies captured from solid model show more sensitivity to damage severity than shell model and shell model performs similar to the beam model in distinguishing damage. The main contribution of this paper is to perform a comparison between three finite element models and experimental data as well as analytical solutions. The finite element results show a relatively well performance.