Impact of a 1755-like tsunami in Huelva, Spain

Coastal areas are highly exposed to natural hazards associated with the sea. In all cases where there is historical evidence for devastating tsunamis, as is the case of the southern coasts of the Iberian Peninsula, there is a need for quantitative hazard tsunami assessment to support spatial planning. Also, local authorities must be able to act towards the population protection in a preemptive way, to inform 'what to do' and 'where to go' and in an alarm, to make people aware of the incoming danger. With this in mind, we investigated the inundation extent, run-up and water depths, of a 1755-like event on the region of Huelva, located on the Spanish southwestern coast, one of the regions that was affected in the past by several high energy events, as proved by historical documents and sedimentological data. Modelling was made with a slightly modified version of the COMCOT (Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model) code. Sensitivity tests were performed for a single source in order to understand the relevance and influence of the source parameters in the inundation extent and the fundamental impact parameters. We show that a 1755-like event will have a dramatic impact in a large area close to Huelva inundating an area between 82 and 92 km(2) and reaching maximum run-up around 5 m. In this sense our results show that small variations on the characteristics of the tsunami source are not too significant for the impact assessment. We show that the maximum flow depth and the maximum run-up increase with the average slip on the source, while the strike of the fault is not a critical factor as Huelva is significantly far away from the potential sources identified up to now. We also show that the maximum flow depth within the inundated area is very dependent on the tidal level, while maximum run-up is less affected, as a consequence of the complex morphology of the area.

The US actuarial balance model for the pay-as-you-go system and its application to Spain

The aim of this paper is to formulate an approximation of the US actuarial balance model and apply it to the Spanish public retirement pension system under various scenarios in order to determine a consistent indicator of the system's financial state comparable to those used by the most advanced social security systems. This will enable us to answer the question as to whether there is any justification for reforming the pension system in Spain. This type of actuarial balance uses projections to show future challenges to the financial side of the pension system deriving basically from ageing, the projected increase in longevity and fluctuations in economic activity. If one is compiled periodically it can provide various indicators to help depoliticize the management of the pay-as-you-go system by bringing the planning horizons of politicians and the system itself closer together.

Reconstructing the architectural evolution of volcanic islands from combined K/AR, morphologic, tectonic, and magnetic data. The Faial Island exemple (Azores)

The morpho-structural evolution of oceanic islands results from competition between volcano growth and partial destruction by mass-wasting processes. We present here a multi-disciplinary study of the successive stages of development of Faial (Azores) during the last 1 Myr. Using high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM), and new K/Ar, tectonic, and magnetic data, we reconstruct the rapidly evolving topography at successive stages, in response to complex interactions between volcanic construction and mass wasting, including the development of a graben. We show that: (1) sub-aerial evolution of the island first involved the rapid growth of a large elongated volcano at ca. 0.85 Ma, followed by its partial destruction over half a million years; (2) beginning about 360 ka a new small edifice grew on the NE of the island, and was subsequently cut by normal faults responsible for initiation of the graben; (3) after an apparent pause of ca. 250 kyr, the large Central Volcano (CV) developed on the western side of the island at ca 120 ka, accumulating a thick pile of lava flows in less than 20 kyr, which were partly channelized within the graben; (4) the period between 120 ka and 40 ka is marked by widespread deformation at the island scale, including westward propagation of faulting and associated erosion of the graben walls, which produced sedimentary deposits; subsequent growth of the CV at 40 ka was then constrained within the graben, with lava flowing onto the sediments up to the eastern shore; (5) the island evolution during the Holocene involves basaltic volcanic activity along the main southern faults and pyroclastic eruptions associated with the formation of a caldera volcano-tectonic depression. We conclude that the whole evolution of Faial Island has been characterized by successive short volcanic pulses probably controlled by brief episodes of regional deformation. Each pulse has been separated by considerable periods of volcanic inactivity during which the Faial graben gradually developed. We propose that the volume loss associated with sudden magma extraction from a shallow reservoir in different episodes triggered incremental downward graben movement, as observed historically, when immediate vertical collapse of up to 2 m was observed along the western segments of the graben at the end of the Capelinhos eruptive crises (1957-58).