Evaluating Tsunami Impact on the Gulf of Cadiz Coast (Northeast Atlantic).

The Gulf of Cadiz coasts are exposed to tsunamis. Emergency planning tools are now taking into account this fact, especially because a series of historical occurrences were strikingly significant, having left strong evidence behind, in the mareographic records, the geological evidence or simply the memory of the populations. The study area is a strip along the Algarve coast, south Portugal, an area known to have been heavily impacted by the 1 November 1755 event. In this study we use two different tsunami scenarios generated by the rupture of two thrust faults identified in the area, corresponding to 8.1-8.3 magnitude earthquakes. Tsunami propagation and inundation computation is performed using a non-linear shallow water code with bottom friction. Numerical modeling results are presented in terms of flow depth and current velocity with maximum values of 7 m and 8 m/s for inundation depth and flow speed, respectively. These results constitute a valuable tool for local authorities, emergency and decision planners to define the priority zones where tsunami mitigation measures must be implemented and to develop tsunami-resilient communities.

Interpretation of gravity data to delineate structural features connected to low-temperature geothermal resources at Northeastern Portugal

A great number of low-temperature geothermal fields occur in Northern-Portugal related to fractured rocks. The most important superficial manifestations of these hydrothermal systems appear in pull-apart tectonic basins and are strongly conditioned by the orientation of the main fault systems in the region. This work presents the interpretation of gravity gradient maps and 3D inversion model produced from a regional gravity survey. The horizontal gradients reveal a complex fault system. The obtained 3D model of density contrast puts into evidence the main fault zone in the region and the depth distribution of the granitic bodies. Their relationship with the hydrothermal systems supports the conceptual models elaborated from hydrochemical and isotopic water analyses. This work emphasizes the importance of the role of the gravity method and analysis to better understand the connection between hydrothermal systems and the fractured rock pattern and surrounding geology. (c) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Northeast Atlantic from near- and far-field tectonic sources

In this article, we present the first study on probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Northeast (NE) Atlantic region related to earthquake sources. The methodology combines the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical approaches. We consider three main tsunamigenic areas, namely the Southwest Iberian Margin, the Gloria, and the Caribbean. For each tsunamigenic zone, we derive the annual recurrence rate for each magnitude range, from Mw 8.0 up to Mw 9.0, with a regular interval, using the Bayesian method, which incorporates seismic information from historical and instrumental catalogs. A numerical code, solving the shallow water equations, is employed to simulate the tsunami propagation and compute near shore wave heights. The probability of exceeding a specific tsunami hazard level during a given time period is calculated using the Poisson distribution. The results are presented in terms of the probability of exceedance of a given tsunami amplitude for 100- and 500-year return periods. The hazard level varies along the NE Atlantic coast, being maximum along the northern segment of the Morocco Atlantic coast, the southern Portuguese coast, and the Spanish coast of the Gulf of Cadiz. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere in the NE Atlantic region reaches 60 and 100 % for 100- and 500-year return periods, respectively. These probability values decrease, respectively, to about 15 and 50 % when considering the exceedance threshold of 5 m for the same return periods of 100 and 500 years.

On the applicability of joint inversion of gravity and resistivity data to the study of a tectonic sedimentary basin in Northern Portugal

The Chaves basin is a pull-apart tectonic depression implanted on granites, schists, and graywackes, and filled with a sedimentary sequence of variable thickness. It is a rather complex structure, as it includes an intricate network of faults and hydrogeological systems. The topography of the basement of the Chaves basin still remains unclear, as no drill hole has ever intersected the bottom of the sediments, and resistivity surveys suffer from severe equivalence issues resulting from the geological setting. In this work, a joint inversion approach of 1D resistivity and gravity data designed for layered environments is used to combine the consistent spatial distribution of the gravity data with the depth sensitivity of the resistivity data. A comparison between the results from the inversion of each data set individually and the results from the joint inversion show that although the joint inversion has more difficulty adjusting to the observed data, it provides more realistic and geologically meaningful models than the ones calculated by the inversion of each data set individually. This work provides a contribution for a better understanding of the Chaves basin, while using the opportunity to study further both the advantages and difficulties comprising the application of the method of joint inversion of gravity and resistivity data.

Estimation of the Crustal Bulk Properties Beneath Mainland Portugal from P-Wave Teleseismic Receiver Functions

In this work, we present results from teleseismic P-wave receiver functions (PRFs) obtained in Portugal, Western Iberia. A dense seismic station deployment conducted between 2010 and 2012, in the scope of the WILAS project and covering the entire country, allowed the most spatially extensive probing on the bulk crustal seismic properties of Portugal up to date. The application of the H-κ stacking algorithm to the PRFs enabled us to estimate the crustal thickness (H) and the average crustal ratio of the P- and S-waves velocities V p/V s (κ) for the region. Observations of Moho conversions indicate that this interface is relatively smooth with the crustal thickness ranging between 24 and 34 km, with an average of 30 km. The highest V p/V s values are found on the Mesozoic-Cenozoic crust beneath the western and southern coastal domain of Portugal, whereas the lowest values correspond to Palaeozoic crust underlying the remaining part of the subject area. An average V p/V s is found to be 1.72, ranging 1.63-1.86 across the study area, indicating a predominantly felsic composition. Overall, we systematically observe a decrease of V p/V s with increasing crustal thickness. Taken as a whole, our results indicate a clear distinction between the geological zones of the Variscan Iberian Massif in Portugal, the overall shape of the anomalies conditioned by the shape of the Ibero-Armorican Arc, and associated Late Paleozoic suture zones, and the Meso-Cenozoic basin associated with Atlantic rifting stages. Thickened crust (30-34 km) across the studied region may be inherited from continental collision during the Paleozoic Variscan orogeny. An anomalous crustal thinning to around 28 km is observed beneath the central part of the Central Iberian Zone and the eastern part of South Portuguese Zone.

Estimation of the Crustal Bulk Properties Beneath Mainland Portugal from P-Wave Teleseismic Receiver Functions

In this work, we present results from teleseismic P-wave receiver functions (PRFs) obtained in Portugal, Western Iberia. A dense seismic station deployment conducted between 2010 and 2012, in the scope of the WILAS project and covering the entire country, allowed the most spatially extensive probing on the bulk crustal seismic properties of Portugal up to date. The application of the H-kappa stacking algorithm to the PRFs enabled us to estimate the crustal thickness (H) and the average crustal ratio of the P- and S-waves velocities V (p)/V (s) (kappa) for the region. Observations of Moho conversions indicate that this interface is relatively smooth with the crustal thickness ranging between 24 and 34 km, with an average of 30 km. The highest V (p)/V (s) values are found on the Mesozoic-Cenozoic crust beneath the western and southern coastal domain of Portugal, whereas the lowest values correspond to Palaeozoic crust underlying the remaining part of the subject area. An average V (p)/V (s) is found to be 1.72, ranging 1.63-1.86 across the study area, indicating a predominantly felsic composition. Overall, we systematically observe a decrease of V (p)/V (s) with increasing crustal thickness. Taken as a whole, our results indicate a clear distinction between the geological zones of the Variscan Iberian Massif in Portugal, the overall shape of the anomalies conditioned by the shape of the Ibero-Armorican Arc, and associated Late Paleozoic suture zones, and the Meso-Cenozoic basin associated with Atlantic rifting stages. Thickened crust (30-34 km) across the studied region may be inherited from continental collision during the Paleozoic Variscan orogeny. An anomalous crustal thinning to around 28 km is observed beneath the central part of the Central Iberian Zone and the eastern part of South Portuguese Zone.

Tsunami characteristics along the Peru-Chile trench: analysis of the 2015 Mw8.3 Illapel, the 2014 Mw8.2 iquique and the 2010 Mw8.8 maule tsunamis in the near-field

Tsunamis occur quite frequently following large magnitude earthquakes along the Chilean coast. Most of these earthquakes occur along the Peru-Chile Trench, one of the most seismically active subduction zones of the world. This study aims to understand better the characteristics of the tsunamis triggered along the Peru-Chile Trench. We investigate the tsunamis induced by the Mw8.3 Illapel, the Mw8.2 Iquique and the Mw8.8 Maule Chilean earthquakes that happened on September 16th, 2015, April 1st, 2014 and February 27th, 2010, respectively. The study involves the relation between the co-seismic deformation and the tsunami generation, the near-field tsunami propagation, and the spectral analysis of the recorded tsunami signals in the near-field. We compare the tsunami characteristics to highlight the possible similarities between the three events and, therefore, attempt to distinguish the specific characteristics of the tsunamis occurring along the Peru-Chile Trench. We find that these three earthquakes present faults with important extensions beneath the continent which result in the generation of tsunamis with short wavelengths, relative to the fault widths involved, and with reduced initial potential energy. In addition, the presence of the Chilean continental margin, that includes the shelf of shallow bathymetry and the continental slope, constrains the tsunami propagation and the coastal impact. All these factors contribute to a concentrated local impact but can, on the other hand, reduce the far-field tsunami effects from earthquakes along Peru-Chile Trench.

Development of fire-resistant (B1 & B2) winter 1 KPU foams applied by gun or straw adapter and optimization of a gun applied winter 1 KPU foam

A realização do presente trabalho teve como principais objectivos o desenvolvimento de espumas de poliuretano de um componente com propriedades de resistência à chama superiores (B1 & B2), aplicadas por pistola ou por adaptador/tubo e a optimização de uma espuma de poliuretano de um componente de inverno aplicada por pistola. Todo o trabalho desenvolvido está dividido em dois projectos distintos: i. O primeiro projecto consistiu em desenvolver espumas de um componente com propriedades de resistência à chama (classificadas como B1 e B2 de acordo com a norma alemã DIN 4102), aplicadas por pistola (GWB1 e GWB2) ou por adaptador/tubo (AWB), utilizando polióis poliésteres aromáticos modificados e aditivos retardantes de chama halogenados. Estas espumas deveriam apresentar também propriedades aceitáveis a baixas temperaturas. Após realizar várias formulações foi possível desenvolver uma espuma AWB2 com apenas 3,3% de poliol poliéster no pré-polímero e com propriedades equivalentes às da melhor espuma comercial mesmo a 5/-10 (temperatura da lata/cura da espuma em °C) e também com uma altura de chama de apenas 11 cm. A partir de duas formulações (AWB2) que passaram o Teste B2, foram obtidas também, uma espuma GWB2 e outra GWB1 com propriedades equivalentes às da melhor espuma da concorrência a -10/-10 e a 23/5, respectivamente, embora não tenham sido submetidas ao teste B2 e B1 após as modificações efectuadas. ii. O segundo projecto consistiu em optimizar uma espuma de poliuretano de um componente de inverno aplicada por pistola (GWB3). A espuma inicial tinha problemas de glass bubbles quando esta era dispensada a partir de uma lata cheia, sendo necessário ultrapassar este problema. Este problema foi resolvido diminuindo a razão de GPL/DME através do aumento da percentagem em volume de DME no pré-polímero para 14% no entanto, a estabilidade dimensional piorou um pouco. O reagente FCA 400 foi removido da formulação anterior (6925) numa tentativa de diminuir o custo da espuma, obtendo-se uma espuma aceitável a 23/23 e a 5/5, com uma redução de 4% no custo da produção e com uma redução de 5,5% no custo por litro de espuma dispensada, quando comparada com a sua antecessora. Por último, foi avaliada a influência da concentração de diferentes surfactantes na formulação 6925, verificando-se o melhoramento da estrutura celular da espuma para concentrções mais elevadas de surfactante, sendo este efeito mais notório a temperaturas mais baixas (5/5). Dos surfactantes estudados, o B 8871 mostrou o melhor desempenho a 5/5 com a concentração mais baixa, sendo portanto o melhor surfactante, enquanto o Struksilon 8003 demonstrou ser o menos adequado para esta formulação específica, apresentando piores resultados globais. Pode-se ainda acrescentar que os surfactantes L-5351, L-5352 e B 8526 também não são adequados para esta formulação uma vez que as espumas resultantes apresentam cell collapse, especialmente a 5/5. No caso dos surfactantes L-5351 e L-5352, esta propriedade piora com concentrações mais elevadas. Em cada projecto foram também efectuados testes de benchmark em determinadas espumas comerciais com o principal objectivo de comparar todos os resultados das espumas desenvolvidas, em ambos os projectos, com espumas da concorrência.

Influence of LPG composition on straw applied one componente PU winter foam

O principal objectivo desta tese é obter uma relação directa entre a composição dos gases liquefeitos de petróleo (GLP), propano, n-butano e isobutano, usados como aerossóis propulsores numa lata de poliuretano de um componente, com as propriedades das espumas produzidas por spray. As espumas obtidas, terão de ter como requisito principal, um bom desempenho a temperaturas baixas, -10ºC, sendo por isso designadas por espumas de Inverno. Uma espuma é considerada como tendo um bom desempenho se não apresentar a -10/-10ºC (temperatura lata/ spray) glass bubbles, base holes e cell collapse. As espumas deverão ainda ter densidades do spray no molde a +23/+23ºC abaixo dos 30 g/L, um rendimento superior a 30 L, boa estabilidade dimensional e um caudal de espuma a +5/+5ºC superior a 5 g/s. Os ensaios experimentais foram realizados a +23/+23ºC, +5/+5ºC e a -10/-10ºC. A cada temperatura, as espumas desenvolvidas, foram submetidas a testes que permitiram determinar a sua qualidade. Testes esses que incluem os designados por Quick Tests (QT): o spray no papel e no molde das espumas nas referidas temperaturas. As amostras do papel e no molde são especialmente analisadas, quanto, às glass bubbles, cell collapse, base holes, cell structur e, cutting shrinkage, para além de outras propriedades. Os QT também incluem a análise da densidade no molde (ODM) e o estudo do caudal de espumas. Além dos QT foram realizados os testes da estabilidade dimensional das espumas, testes físicos de compressão e adesão, testes de expansão das espumas após spray e do rendimento por lata de espuma. Em todos os ensaios foi utilizado um tubo adaptador colocado na válvula da lata como método de spray e ainda mantida constante a proporção das matérias-primas (excepto os gases, em estudo). As experiências iniciaram-se com o estudo de GLPs presentes no mercado de aerossóis. Estes resultaram que o GLP: propano/ n-butano/ isobutano: (30/ 0/ 70 w/w%), produz as melhores espumas de inverno a -10/-10ºC, reduzindo desta forma as glass bubbles, base holes e o cell collapse produzido pelos restantes GLP usados como aerossóis nas latas de poliuretano. Testes posteriores tiveram como objectivo estudar a influência directa de cada gás, propano, n-butano e isobutano nas espumas. Para tal, foram usadas duas referências do estudo com GLP comercializáveis, 7396 (30 /0 /70 w/w %) e 7442 (0/ 0/ 100 w/w %). Com estes resultados concluí-se que o n-butano produz más propriedades nas espumas a -10/- 10ºC, formando grandes quantidades de glass bubbles, base holes e cell collapse. Contudo, o uso de propano reduz essas glass bubbles, mas em contrapartida, forma cell collapse.Isobutano, porém diminui o cell collapse mas não as glass bubbles. Dos resultados experimentais podemos constatar que o caudal a +5/+5ºC e densidade das espumas a +23/+23ºC, são influenciados pela composição do GLP. O propano e n-butano aumentam o caudal de espuma das latas e a sua densidade, ao contrário com o que acontece com o isobutano. Todavia, pelos resultados obtidos, o isobutano proporciona os melhores rendimentos de espumas por lata. Podemos concluir que os GLPs que contivessem cerca de 30 w/w % de propano (bons caudais a +5/+5ºC e menos glass bubbles a -10/-10ºC), e cerca 70 w/w % de isobutano (bons rendimentos de espumas, bem como menos cell collapse a -10/-10ºC) produziam as melhores espumas. Também foram desenvolvidos testes sobre a influência da quantidade de gás GLP presente numa lata. A análise do volume de GLP usado, foi realizada com base na melhor espuma obtida nos estudos anteriores, 7396, com um GLP (30 / 0/ 70 w/w%), e foram feitas alterações ao seu volume gás GLP presente no pré-polímero. O estudo concluiu, que o aumento do volume pode diminuir a densidade das espumas, e o seu decréscimo, um aumento da densidade. Também indico u que um mau ajuste do volume poderá causar más propriedades nas espumas. A análise económica, concluiu que o custo das espumas com mais GLP nas suas formulações, reduz-se em cerca de 3%, a quando de um aumento do volume de GLP no pré-polímero de cerca de 8 %. Esta diminuição de custos deveu-se ao facto, de um aumento de volume de gás, implicar uma diminuição na quantidade das restantes matérias-primas, com custos superiores, já que o volume útil total da lata terá de ser sempre mantido nos 750 mL. Com o objectivo de melhorar a qualidade da espuma 7396 (30/0/70 w/w %) obtida nos ensaios anteriores adicionou-se à formulação 7396 o HFC-152a (1,1-di fluoroetano). Os resultados demonstram que se formam espumas com más propriedades, especialmente a -10/-10ºC, contudo proporcionou excelentes shaking rate da lata. Através de uma pequena análise de custos não é aconselhável o seu uso pelos resultados obtidos, não proporcionando um balanço custo/benefício favorável. As três melhores espumas obtidas de todos os estudos foram comparadas com uma espuma de inverno presente no mercado. 7396 e 7638 com um volume de 27 % no prépolímero e uma composição de GLP (30/ 0 / 70 w/w%) e (13,7/ 0/ 86,3 w/w%), respectivamente, e 7690, com 37 % de volume no pré-polímero e GLP (30/ 0 / 70 w/w%), apresentaram em geral melhores resultados, comparando com a espuma benchmark . Contudo, os seus shaking rate a -10/-10ºC, de cada espuma, apresentaram valores bastante inferiores à composição benchmarking.

Development of an in situ penetration test for the uptake of preservatives in applied wood

This paper concerns the study of biocides application in old timber structures of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ail.), previously impregnated with other products. A method was developed in laboratory to determine in situ the penetration depth of a product applied superficially. As initial treatment, three traditional products for sawn timber for buildings were used and, for new treatments, two newer, more environmentally benign products were used. Their ability to penetrate the pre-treated surfaces was evaluated after 1, 2 and 3 applications at 24 hours intervals and the results obtained are presented. Finally, the applicability of the developed test to the in-situ evaluation of timber structures is also discussed.

Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

Elastically restrained Bernoulli-Euler beams applied to rotary machinery modelling

Facing the lateral vibration problem of a machine rotor as a beam on elastic supports in bending, the authors deal with the free vibration of elastically restrained Bernoulli-Euler beams carrying a finite number of concentrated elements along their length. Based on Rayleigh's quotient, an iterative strategy is developed to find the approximated torsional stiffness coefficients, which allows the reconciliation between the theoretical model results and the experimental ones, obtained through impact tests. The mentioned algorithm treats the vibration of continuous beams under a determined set of boundary and continuity conditions, including different torsional stiffness coefficients and the effect of attached concentrated masses and rotational inertias, not only in the energetic terms of the Rayleigh's quotient but also on the mode shapes, considering the shape functions defined in branches. Several loading cases are examined and examples are given to illustrate the validity of the model and accuracy of the obtained natural frequencies.

Sensing Cloud Optimization applied to a non-convex constrained economical dispatch

Conferência: 39th Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial-Electronics-Society (IECON) - NOV 10-14, 2013

Fuzzy clustering applied to a demand response model in a smart grid contingency scenario

This paper focus on a demand response model analysis in a smart grid context considering a contingency scenario. A fuzzy clustering technique is applied on the developed demand response model and an analysis is performed for the contingency scenario. Model considerations and architecture are described. The demand response developed model aims to support consumers decisions regarding their consumption needs and possible economic benefits.

Fuzzy clustering applied to a demand response model in a smatr grid contingency scenario

This paper focus on a demand response model analysis in a smart grid context considering a contingency scenario. A fuzzy clustering technique is applied on the developed demand response model and an analysis is performed for the contingency scenario. Model considerations and architecture are described. The demand response developed model aims to support consumers decisions regarding their consumption needs and possible economic benefits.