The 1531 Lisbon Earthquake: A Tsunami In the Tagus Estuary?

On 26 January 1531, a strong-magnitude earthquake heavily impacted Lisbon downtown. Immediately after the earthquake, the eyewitnesses reported large waves in the Tagus estuary, mainly north of the city and along the northern bank of the river. Descriptions include large impacts on ships anchored in the estuary and even morphological changes in the riverbed. We present a synthesis of the available information concerning both the earthquake and the water disturbance as a basis for the discussion of the probable tectonic source and the magnitude of the associated river oscillations. We hypothesize that the initial disturbance of the water can be attributed to the coseismic deformation of the estuary riverbed, and we use a nonlinear shallow water model to simulate the tsunami propagation and inundation. We show that the Vila Franca de Xira fault is the most probable source of the 1531 event. The largest inundation effects of the model correlate well with the historical descriptions: the impact is relevant in the inner Tagus estuary, but inundation in downtown Lisbon is small.

Potential inundation of Lisbon downtown by a 1755-like tsunami

In this study, we present 10 m resolution tsunami flooding maps for Lisbon downtown and the Tagus estuary. To compute these maps we use the present bathymetry and topographic maps and a reasonable estimate for the maximum credible tsunami scenario. Tsunami modeling was made with a non-linear shallow water model using four levels of nested grids. The tsunami flood is discussed in terms of flow depth, run-up height and maximum inundation area. The results show that, even today, in spite of the significant morphologic changes in the city river front after the 1755 earthquake, a similar event would cause tsunami flow depths larger than one meter in a large area along the Tagus estuary and Lisbon downtown. Other areas along the estuary with a high population density would also be strongly affected. The impact of the tide on the extent of tsunami inundation is discussed, due to the large amplitude range of the tide in Lisbon, and compared with the historical descriptions of the 1755 event. The results presented here can be used to identify the potential tsunami inundation areas in Lisbon; this identification comprises a key element of the Portuguese tsunami emergency management system.