54 resultados para forecast deviation
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We propose a low complexity technique to generate amplitude correlated time-series with Nakagami-m distribution and phase correlated Gaussian-distributed time-series, which is useful in the simulation of ionospheric scintillation effects during the transmission of GNSS signals. The method requires only the knowledge of parameters S4 (scintillation index) and σΦ (phase standard deviation) besides the definition of models for the amplitude and phase power spectra. The Zhang algorithm is used to produce Nakagami-distributed signals from a set of Gaussian autoregressive processes.
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It is important to understand and forecast a typical or a particularly household daily consumption in order to design and size suitable renewable energy systems and energy storage. In this research for Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) it has been used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and, despite the consumption unpredictability, it has been shown the possibility to forecast the electricity consumption of a household with certainty. The ANNs are recognized to be a potential methodology for modeling hourly and daily energy consumption and load forecasting. Input variables such as apartment area, numbers of occupants, electrical appliance consumption and Boolean inputs as hourly meter system were considered. Furthermore, the investigation carried out aims to define an ANN architecture and a training algorithm in order to achieve a robust model to be used in forecasting energy consumption in a typical household. It was observed that a feed-forward ANN and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm provided a good performance. For this research it was used a database with consumption records, logged in 93 real households, in Lisbon, Portugal, between February 2000 and July 2001, including both weekdays and weekend. The results show that the ANN approach provides a reliable model for forecasting household electric energy consumption and load profile. © 2014 The Author.
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Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.
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Trabalho de Projecto para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil
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Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia de Eletrónica e Telecomunicações
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Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia de Redes de Comunicação e Multimédia
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Dissertação para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Energia
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The paper reports viscosity measurements of compressed liquid dipropyl (DPA) and dibutyl (DBA) adipates obtained with two vibrating wire sensors developed in our group. The vibrating wire instruments were operated in the forced oscillation, or steady-state mode. The viscosity measurements of DPA were carried out in a range of pressures up to 18. MPa and temperatures from (303 to 333). K, and DBA up to 65. MPa and temperature from (303 to 373). K, covering a total range of viscosities from (1.3 to 8.3). mPa. s. The required density data of the liquid samples were obtained in our laboratory using an Anton Paar vibrating tube densimeter and were reported in a previous paper. The viscosity results were correlated with density, using a modified hard-spheres scheme. The root mean square deviation of the data from the correlation is less than (0.21 and 0.32)% and the maximum absolute relative deviations are within (0.43 and 0.81)%, for DPA and DBA respectively. No data for the viscosity of both adipates could be found in the literature. Independent viscosity measurements were also performed, at atmospheric pressure, using an Ubbelohde capillary in order to compare with the vibrating wire results. The expanded uncertainty of these results is estimated as ±1.5% at a 95% confidence level. The two data sets agree within the uncertainty of both methods. © 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V.
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A correlation and predictive scheme for the viscosity and self-diffusivity of liquid dialkyl adipates is presented. The scheme is based on the kinetic theory for dense hard-sphere fluids, applied to the van der Waals model of a liquid to predict the transport properties. A "universal" curve for a dimensionless viscosity of dialkyl adipates was obtained using recently published experimental viscosity and density data of compressed liquid dimethyl (DMA), dipropyl (DPA), and dibutyl (DBA) adipates. The experimental data are described by the correlation scheme with a root-mean-square deviation of +/- 0.34 %. The parameters describing the temperature dependence of the characteristic volume, V-0, and the roughness parameter, R-eta, for each adipate are well correlated with one single molecular parameter. Recently published experimental self-diffusion coefficients of the same set of liquid dialkyl adipates at atmospheric pressure were correlated using the characteristic volumes obtained from the viscosity data. The roughness factors, R-D, are well correlated with the same single molecular parameter found for viscosity. The root-mean-square deviation of the data from the correlation is less than 1.07 %. Tests are presented in order to assess the capability of the correlation scheme to estimate the viscosity of compressed liquid diethyl adipate (DEA) in a range of temperatures and pressures by comparison with literature data and of its self-diffusivity at atmospheric pressure in a range of temperatures. It is noteworthy that no data for DEA were used to build the correlation scheme. The deviations encountered between predicted and experimental data for the viscosity and self-diffusivity do not exceed 2.0 % and 2.2 %, respectively, which are commensurate with the estimated experimental measurement uncertainty, in both cases.