A hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal

The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Wind power prediction plays a key role in tackling these challenges. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach, combining particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal. Significant improvements regarding forecasting accuracy are attainable using the proposed approach, in comparison with the results obtained with five other approaches.

Investigation on the development of bidding strategies for a wind farm owner

In this paper, the development of bidding strategies is investigated for a wind farm owner. The optimization model is characterized by making the analysis of scenarios. The proposed approach allows evaluating alternative production strategies in order to submit bids to the electricity market with the goal of maximizing profits. The problem is formulated as a linear programming problem. An application to a case study is presented

A flexible side information generation framework for distributed video coding

One of the most efficient approaches to generate the side information (SI) in distributed video codecs is through motion compensated frame interpolation where the current frame is estimated based on past and future reference frames. However, this approach leads to significant spatial and temporal variations in the correlation noise between the source at the encoder and the SI at the decoder. In such scenario, it would be useful to design an architecture where the SI can be more robustly generated at the block level, avoiding the creation of SI frame regions with lower correlation, largely responsible for some coding efficiency losses. In this paper, a flexible framework to generate SI at the block level in two modes is presented: while the first mode corresponds to a motion compensated interpolation (MCI) technique, the second mode corresponds to a motion compensated quality enhancement (MCQE) technique where a low quality Intra block sent by the encoder is used to generate the SI by doing motion estimation with the help of the reference frames. The novel MCQE mode can be overall advantageous from the rate-distortion point of view, even if some rate has to be invested in the low quality Intra coding blocks, for blocks where the MCI produces SI with lower correlation. The overall solution is evaluated in terms of RD performance with improvements up to 2 dB, especially for high motion video sequences and long Group of Pictures (GOP) sizes.

Distribuição de vídeo sobre uma rede IEEE 802.11n

A recente norma IEEE 802.11n oferece um elevado débito em redes locais sem fios sendo por isso esperado uma adopção massiva desta tecnologia substituindo progressivamente as redes 802.11b/g. Devido à sua elevada capacidade esta recente geração de redes sem fios 802.11n permite um crescimento acentuado de serviços audiovisuais. Neste contexto esta dissertação procura estudar a rede 802.11n, caracterizando o desempenho e a qualidade associada a um serviço de transmissão de vídeo, recorrendo para o efeito a uma arquitectura de simulação da rede 802.11n. Desta forma é caracterizado o impacto das novas funcionalidades da camada MAC introduzidas na norma 801.11n, como é o caso da agregação A-MSDU e A-MPDU, bem como o impacto das novas funcionalidades da camada física como é o caso do MIMO; em ambos os casos uma optimização da parametrização é realizada. Também se verifica que as principais técnicas de codificação de vídeo H.264/AVC para optimizar o processo de distribuição de vídeo, permitem optimizar o desempenho global do sistema de transmissão. Aliando a optimização e parametrização da camada MAC, da camada física, e do processo de codificação, é possível propor um conjunto de configurações que permitem obter o melhor desempenho na qualidade de serviço da transmissão de conteúdos de vídeo numa rede 802.11n. A arquitectura de simulação construída nesta dissertação é especificamente adaptada para suportar as técnicas de agregação da camada MAC, bem como para suportar o encapsulamento em protocolos de rede que permitem a transmissão dos pacotes de vídeo RTP, codificados em H.264/AVC.

A gestão do risco associado à negociação de energia eléctrica através de contratos bilaterais e mercado spot

Num mercado de electricidade competitivo onde existe um ambiente de incerteza, as empresas de geração adoptam estratégias que visam a maximização do lucro, e a minimização do risco. Neste contexto, é de extrema importância para desenvolver uma estratégia adequada de gestão de risco ter em conta as diferentes opções de negociação de energia num mercado liberalizado, de forma a suportar a tomada de decisões na gestão de risco. O presente trabalho apresenta um modelo que avalia a melhor estratégia de um produtor de energia eléctrica que comercializa num mercado competitivo, onde existem dois mercados possíveis para a transacção de energia: o mercado organizado (bolsa) e o mercado de contratos bilaterais. O produtor tenta maximizar seus lucros e minimizar os riscos correspondentes, seleccionando o melhor equilíbrio entre os dois mercados possíveis (bolsa e bilateral). O mercado de contratos bilaterais visa gerir adequadamente os riscos inerentes à operação de mercados no curto prazo (mercado organizado) e dar o vendedor / comprador uma capacidade real de escolher o fornecedor com que quer negociar. O modelo apresentado neste trabalho faz uma caracterização explícita do risco no que diz respeito ao agente de mercado na questão da sua atitude face ao risco, medido pelo Value at Risk (VaR), descrito neste trabalho por Lucro-em-Risco (PAR). O preço e os factores de risco de volume são caracterizados por um valor médio e um desvio padrão, e são modelizados por distribuições normais. Os resultados numéricos são obtidos utilizando a simulação de Monte Carlo implementado em Matlab, e que é aplicado a um produtor que mantém uma carteira diversificada de tecnologias de geração, para um horizonte temporal de um ano. Esta dissertação está organizada da seguinte forma: o capítulo 1, 2 e 3 descrevem o estado-da-arte relacionado com a gestão de risco na comercialização de energia eléctrica. O capítulo 4 descreve o modelo desenvolvido e implementado, onde é também apresentado um estudo de caso com uma aplicação do modelo para avaliar o risco de negociação de um produtor. No capítulo 5 são apresentadas as principais conclusões.

An artificial neural network approach for short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal

This paper presents an artificial neural network approach for short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal. The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. The accuracy of the wind power forecasting attained with the proposed approach is evaluated against persistence and ARIMA approaches, reporting the numerical results from a real-world case study.

Simulation of defects in bubble clusters

Topological defects in foam, either isolated (disclinations and dislocations) or in pairs, affect the energy and stress, and play an important role in foam deformation. Surface Evolver simulations were performed on large finite clusters of bubbles. These allow us to evaluate the effect of the topology of the defects, and the distance between defects, on the energy and pressure of foam clusters of different sizes. The energy of such defects follows trends similar to known analytical results for a continuous medium.

A simulation study on the abatement of CO2 emissions by de-absorption with monoethanolamine

Because of the adverse effect of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion on the earth's ecosystems, the most cost-effective method for CO2 capture is an important area of research. The predominant process for CO2 capture currently employed by industry is chemical absorption in amine solutions. A dynamic model for the de-absorption process was developed with monoethanolamine (MEA) solution. Henry's law was used for modelling the vapour phase equilibrium of the CO2, and fugacity ratios calculated by the Peng-Robinson equation of state (EOS) were used for H2O, MEA, N-2 and O-2. Chemical reactions between CO2 and MEA were included in the model along with the enhancement factor for chemical absorption. Liquid and vapour energy balances were developed to calculate the liquid and vapour temperature, respectively.

Transport properties in microcrystalline silicon solar cells under AM1.5 illumination analysed by two-dimensional numerical simulation

Microcrystalline silicon is a two-phase material. Its composition can be interpreted as a series of grains of crystalline silicon imbedded in an amorphous silicon tissue, with a high concentration of dangling bonds in the transition regions. In this paper, results for the transport properties of a mu c-Si:H p-i-n junction obtained by means of two-dimensional numerical simulation are reported. The role played by the boundary regions between the crystalline grains and the amorphous matrix is taken into account and these regions are treated similar to a heterojunction interface. The device is analysed under AM1.5 illumination and the paper outlines the influence of the local electric field at the grain boundary transition regions on the internal electric configuration of the device and on the transport mechanism within the mu c-Si:H intrinsic layer.

Simulation of default events in a CDX and estimation of the spread

The portfolio generating the iTraxx EUR index is modeled by coupled Markov chains. Each of the industries of the portfolio evolves according to its own Markov transition matrix. Using a variant of the method of moments, the model parameters are estimated from a data set of Standard and Poor's. Swap spreads are evaluated by Monte-Carlo simulations. Along with an actuarially fair spread, at least squares spread is considered.

Modelling of n-stage Blumlein stacked lines for bipolar pulse generation

A Blumlein line is a particular Pulse Forming Line, PFL, configuration that allows the generation of high-voltage sub-microsecond square pulses, with the same voltage amplitude as the dc charging voltage, into a matching load. By stacking n Blumlein lines one can multiply in theory by n the input dc voltage charging amplitude. In order to understand the operating behavior of this electromagnetic system and to further optimize its operation it is fundamental to theoretically model it, that is to calculate the voltage amplitudes at each circuit point and the time instant that happens. In order to do this, one needs to define the reflection and transmission coefficients where impedance discontinuity occurs. The experimental results of a fast solid-state switch, which discharges a three stage Blumlein stack, will be compared with theoretical ones.

Solid-State Bipolar Marx Converter with Output Transformer and Energy Recovery

The purpose of this paper is to present and discuss a general HV topology of the solid-state Marx modulator, for unipolar or bipolar generation connected with a step-up transformer to increase the output voltage applied to a resistive load. Due to the use of an output transformer, discussion about the reset of the transformer is made to guarantee zero average voltage applied to the primary. It is also discussed the transformer magnetizing energy recovering back to the energy storage capacitors. Simulation results for a circuit that generates 100 kV pulses using 1000 V semiconductors are presented and discussed regarding the voltage and current stress on the semiconductors and result obtained.

A New Modular Marx Derived Multilevel Converter

A new Modular Marx Multilevel Converter, M(3)C, is presented. The M(3)C topology was developed based on the Marx Generator concept and can contribute to technological innovation for sustainability by enabling wind energy off-shore modular multilevel power switching converters with an arbitrary number of levels. This paper solves both the DC capacitor voltage balancing problem and modularity problems of multilevel converters, using a modified cell of a solid-state Marx modulator, previously developed by authors for high voltage pulsed power applications. The paper details the structure and operation of the M(3)C modules, and their assembling to obtain multilevel converters. Sliding mode control is applied to a M(3)C leg and the vector leading to automatic capacitor voltage equalization is chosen. Simulation results are presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed M(3)C topology.

Application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference for wind power short-term forecasting

The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. In this paper, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference approach is proposed for short-term wind power forecasting. Results from a real-world case study are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results obtained with other approaches. Numerical results are presented and conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Identification of tsunami-induced deposits using numerical modeling and rock magnetism techniques: Astudy case of the 1755 Lisbon tsunami in Algarve, Portugal (vol 182, pg 187, 2010)

Storm- and tsunami-deposits are generated by similar depositional mechanisms making their discrimination hard to establish using classic sedimentologic methods. Here we propose an original approach to identify tsunami-induced deposits by combining numerical simulation and rock magnetism. To test our method, we investigate the tsunami deposit of the Boca do Rio estuary generated by the 1755 earthquake in Lisbon which is well described in the literature. We first test the 1755 tsunami scenario using a numerical inundation model to provide physical parameters for the tsunami wave. Then we use concentration (MS. SIRM) and grain size (chi(ARM), ARM, B1/2, ARM/SIRM) sensitive magnetic proxies coupled with SEM microscopy to unravel the magnetic mineralogy of the tsunami-induced deposit and its associated depositional mechanisms. In order to study the connection between the tsunami deposit and the different sedimentologic units present in the estuary, magnetic data were processed by multivariate statistical analyses. Our numerical simulation show a large inundation of the estuary with flow depths varying from 0.5 to 6 m and run up of similar to 7 m. Magnetic data show a dominance of paramagnetic minerals (quartz) mixed with lesser amount of ferromagnetic minerals, namely titanomagnetite and titanohematite both of a detrital origin and reworked from the underlying units. Multivariate statistical analyses indicate a better connection between the tsunami-induced deposit and a mixture of Units C and D. All these results point to a scenario where the energy released by the tsunami wave was strong enough to overtop and erode important amount of sand from the littoral dune and mixed it with reworked materials from underlying layers at least 1 m in depth. The method tested here represents an original and promising tool to identify tsunami-induced deposits in similar embayed beach environments.