Long-run consumption risk with durable goods : UK evidence for equity and bond markets

"It is a widely accepted fact that the consumption-based capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) fails to provide a good explanation of many important features of the behaviour of financial market returns in a large range of countries over a long period of time. However, within a representative consumer/investor model, it is hard to see how the basic structure of the consumption based model can be safely abandoned." [introdução]

Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Northeast Atlantic from near- and far-field tectonic sources

In this article, we present the first study on probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Northeast (NE) Atlantic region related to earthquake sources. The methodology combines the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical approaches. We consider three main tsunamigenic areas, namely the Southwest Iberian Margin, the Gloria, and the Caribbean. For each tsunamigenic zone, we derive the annual recurrence rate for each magnitude range, from Mw 8.0 up to Mw 9.0, with a regular interval, using the Bayesian method, which incorporates seismic information from historical and instrumental catalogs. A numerical code, solving the shallow water equations, is employed to simulate the tsunami propagation and compute near shore wave heights. The probability of exceeding a specific tsunami hazard level during a given time period is calculated using the Poisson distribution. The results are presented in terms of the probability of exceedance of a given tsunami amplitude for 100- and 500-year return periods. The hazard level varies along the NE Atlantic coast, being maximum along the northern segment of the Morocco Atlantic coast, the southern Portuguese coast, and the Spanish coast of the Gulf of Cadiz. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere in the NE Atlantic region reaches 60 and 100 % for 100- and 500-year return periods, respectively. These probability values decrease, respectively, to about 15 and 50 % when considering the exceedance threshold of 5 m for the same return periods of 100 and 500 years.

Naturally occurring radioactive materials: a method for assessing the risk of exposure

Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials (NORM) are materials that are found naturally in the environment and contain radioactive isotopes that can cause negative effects on the health of workers who manipulate them. Present in underground work like mining and tunnel construction in granite zones, these materials are difficult to identify and characterize without appropriate equipment for risk evaluation. The assessing methods were exemplified with a case study applied to the handling and processing of phosphoric rock where one found significant amounts of radioactive isotopes and consequently elevated radon concentrations in enclosed spaces containing these materials. © 2015 Taylor & Francis Group, London.

Establishment of optimal physical assets inspection frequency based on risk principles

Risk Based Inspection (RBI) is a risk methodology used as the basis for prioritizing and managing the efforts for an inspection program allowing the allocation of resources to provide a higher level of coverage on physical assets with higher risk. The main goal of RBI is to increase equipment availability while improving or maintaining the accepted level of risk. This paper presents the concept of risk, risk analysis and RBI methodology and shows an approach to determine the optimal inspection frequency for physical assets based on the potential risk and mainly on the quantification of the probability of failure. It makes use of some assumptions in a structured decision making process. The proposed methodology allows an optimization of inspection intervals deciding when the first inspection must be performed as well as the subsequent intervals of inspection. A demonstrative example is also presented to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology.

Risk assessment in open innovation networks

Innovation is considered crucial for enterprises survival and current economic environment demands the best ways of achieving it. However, the development of complex products and services require the utilization of diverse know-how and technology, which enterprises may not hold. An effective strategy for achieving them is to rely in open innovation. Still, open innovation projects may fail for many causes, e.g. due to the dynamics of collaboration between partners. To effectively benefit from open innovation, it is recommended the utilization of adequate risk models. For achieving such models, a preliminary conceptualization of open innovation and risk is necessary, which includes modeling experiments with existing risk models, such as the FMEA.

The insular shelves of the Faial-Pico Ridge (Azores archipelago): a morphological record of its evolution

Shelves surrounding reefless volcanic ocean islands are formed by surf erosion of their slopes during changing sea levels. Posterosional lava flows, if abundant, can cross the coastal cliffs and fill partially or completely the accommodation space left by erosion. In this study, multibeam bathymetry, high-resolution seismic reflection profiles, and sediment samples are used to characterize the morphology of the insular shelves adjacent to Pico Island. The data show offshore fresh lava flow morphologies, as well as an irregular basement beneath shelf sedimentary bodies and reduced shelf width adjacent to older volcanic edifices in Pico. These observations suggest that these shelves have been significantly filled by volcanic progradation and can thus be classified as rejuvenated. Despite the general volcanic infilling of the shelves around Pico, most of their edges are below the depth of the Last Glacial Maximum, revealing that at least parts of the island have subsided after the shelves formed by surf erosion. Prograding lava deltas reached the shelf edge in some areas triggering small slope failures, locally decreasing the shelf width and depth of their edges. These areas can represent a significant risk for the local population; hence, their identification can be useful for hazard assessment and contribute to wiser land use planning. Shelf and subaerial geomorphology, magnetic anomalies and crustal structure data of the two islands were also interpreted to reconstruct the long-term combined onshore and offshore evolution of the Faial-Pico ridge. The subaerial emergence of this ridge is apparently older than previously thought, i.e., before approximate to 850 ka.

Educating for earthquake science and risk in a tectonically slowly deforming region

Over the past decade, scientists have been called to participate more actively in public education and outreach (E&O). This is particularly true in fields of significant societal impact, such as earthquake science. Local earthquake risk culture plays a role in the way that the public engages in educational efforts. In this article, we describe an adapted E&O program for earthquake science and risk. The program is tailored for a region of slow tectonic deformation, where large earthquakes are extreme events that occur with long return periods. The adapted program has two main goals: (1) to increase the awareness and preparedness of the population to earthquake and related risks (tsunami, liquefaction, fires, etc.), and (2) to increase the quality of earthquake science education, so as to attract talented students to geosciences. Our integrated program relies on activities tuned for different population groups who have different interests and abilities, namely young children, teenagers, young adults, and professionals.