How market power affects the behaviour of a pumped storage hydro unit in the day-ahead electricity market?

The integration of large amounts of wind energy in power systems raises important operation issues such as the balance between power demand and generation. The pumped storage hydro (PSH) units are seen as one solution for this issue, avoiding the need for wind power curtailments. However, the behavior of a PSH unit might differ considerably when it operates in a liberalized market with some degree of market power. In this regard, a new approach for the optimal daily scheduling of a PSH unit in the day-ahead electricity market was developed and presented in this paper, in which the market power is modeled by a residual inverse demand function with a variable elasticity. The results obtained show that increasing degrees of market power of the PSH unit correspond to decreasing levels of storage and, therefore, the capacity to integrate wind power is considerably reduced under these circumstances.

Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competetive market by a hybrid Pso-Anfis approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Complex Dynamics of defective interfering baculoviruses during serial passage in insect cells

Defective interfering (DI) viruses are thought to cause oscillations in virus levels, known as the ‘Von Magnus effect’. Interference by DI viruses has been proposed to underlie these dynamics, although experimental tests of this idea have not been forthcoming. For the baculoviruses, insect viruses commonly used for the expression of heterologous proteins in insect cells, the molecular mechanisms underlying DI generation have been investigated. However, the dynamics of baculovirus populations harboring DIs have not been studied in detail. In order to address this issue, we used quantitative real-time PCR to determine the levels of helper and DI viruses during 50 serial passages of Autographa californica multiple nucleopolyhedrovirus (AcMNPV) in Sf21 cells. Unexpectedly, the helper and DI viruses changed levels largely in phase, and oscillations were highly irregular, suggesting the presence of chaos. We therefore developed a simple mathematical model of baculovirus-DI dynamics. This theoretical model reproduced patterns qualitatively similar to the experimental data. Although we cannot exclude that experimental variation (noise) plays an important role in generating the observed patterns, the presence of chaos in the model dynamics was confirmed with the computation of the maximal Lyapunov exponent, and a Ruelle-Takens-Newhouse route to chaos was identified at decreasing production of DI viruses, using mutation as a control parameter. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the dynamics of DI baculoviruses, and suggest that changes in virus levels over passages may exhibit chaos.

A cellulosic liquid crystal pool for cellulose nanocrystals: structure and molecular dynamics at high shear rates

Cellulose and its derivatives, such as hydroxypropylcellulose (HPC) have been studied for a long time but they are still not well understood particularly in liquid crystalline solutions. These systems can be at the origin of networks with properties similar to liquid crystalline (LC) elastomers. The films produced from LC solutions can be manipulated by the action of moisture allowing for instance the development of a soft motor (Geng et al., 2013) driven by humidity. Cellulose nanocrystals (CNC), which combine cellulose properties with the specific characteristics of nanoscale materials, have been mainly studied for their potential as a reinforcing agent. Suspensions of CNC can also self-order originating a liquid-crystalline chiral nematic phases. Considering the liquid crystalline features that both LC-HPC and CNC can acquire, we prepared LC-HPC/CNC solutions with different CNC contents (1,2 and 5 wt.%). The effect of the CNC into the LC-HPC matrix was determined by coupling rheology and NMR spectroscopy - Rheo-NMR a technique tailored to analyse orientational order in sheared systems. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Da embalagem à confiança: viagem ao maravilhoso mundo das marcas próprias

Dissertação apresentada à Escola Superior de Comunicação Social como parte dos requisitos para obtenção de grau de mestre em Publicidade e Marketing.

Symbolic dynamics and big bang bifurcation in Weibull-Gompertz-Fréchet's growth models

In this paper, motivated by the interest and relevance of the study of tumor growth models, a central point of our investigation is the study of the chaotic dynamics and the bifurcation structure of Weibull-Gompertz-Fréchet's functions: a class of continuousdefined one-dimensional maps. Using symbolic dynamics techniques and iteration theory, we established that depending on the properties of this class of functions in a neighborhood of a bifurcation point PBB, in a two-dimensional parameter space, there exists an order regarding how the infinite number of periodic orbits are born: the Sharkovsky ordering. Consequently, the corresponding symbolic sequences follow the usual unimodal kneading sequences in the topological ordered tree. We verified that under some sufficient conditions, Weibull-Gompertz-Fréchet's functions have a particular bifurcation structure: a big bang bifurcation point PBB. This fractal bifurcations structure is of the so-called "box-within-a-box" type, associated to a boxe ω1, where an infinite number of bifurcation curves issues from. This analysis is done making use of fold and flip bifurcation curves and symbolic dynamics techniques. The present paper is an original contribution in the framework of the big bang bifurcation analysis for continuous maps.