22 resultados para technology forecasting
Resumo:
This paper presents a layered Smart Grid architecture enhancing security and reliability, having the ability to act in order to maintain and correct infrastructure components without affecting the client service. The architecture presented is based in the core of well design software engineering, standing upon standards developed over the years. The layered Smart Grid offers a base tool to ease new standards and energy policies implementation. The ZigBee technology implementation test methodology for the Smart Grid is presented, and provides field tests using ZigBee technology to control the new Smart Grid architecture approach. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
It is important to understand and forecast a typical or a particularly household daily consumption in order to design and size suitable renewable energy systems and energy storage. In this research for Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) it has been used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and, despite the consumption unpredictability, it has been shown the possibility to forecast the electricity consumption of a household with certainty. The ANNs are recognized to be a potential methodology for modeling hourly and daily energy consumption and load forecasting. Input variables such as apartment area, numbers of occupants, electrical appliance consumption and Boolean inputs as hourly meter system were considered. Furthermore, the investigation carried out aims to define an ANN architecture and a training algorithm in order to achieve a robust model to be used in forecasting energy consumption in a typical household. It was observed that a feed-forward ANN and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm provided a good performance. For this research it was used a database with consumption records, logged in 93 real households, in Lisbon, Portugal, between February 2000 and July 2001, including both weekdays and weekend. The results show that the ANN approach provides a reliable model for forecasting household electric energy consumption and load profile. © 2014 The Author.
Resumo:
Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.
Resumo:
In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.
Resumo:
Trabalho de projeto apresentado à Escola Superior de Comunicação Social como parte dos requisitos para obtenção de grau de mestre em Audiovisual e Multimédia.
Resumo:
In this paper we exploit the nonlinear property of the SiC multilayer devices to design an optical processor for error detection that enables reliable delivery of spectral data of four-wave mixing over unreliable communication channels. The SiC optical processor is realized by using double pin/pin a-SiC:H photodetector with front and back biased optical gating elements. Visible pulsed signals are transmitted together at different bit sequences. The combined optical signal is analyzed. Data show that the background acts as selector that picks one or more states by splitting portions of the input multi optical signals across the front and back photodiodes. Boolean operations such as EXOR and three bit addition are demonstrated optically, showing that when one or all of the inputs are present, the system will behave as an XOR gate representing the SUM. When two or three inputs are on, the system acts as AND gate indicating the present of the CARRY bit. Additional parity logic operations are performed using four incoming pulsed communication channels that are transmitted and checked for errors together. As a simple example of this approach, we describe an all-optical processor for error detection and then provide an experimental demonstration of this idea. (C) 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Resumo:
The SiC optical processor for error detection and correction is realized by using double pin/pin a-SiC:H photodetector with front and back biased optical gating elements. Data shows that the background act as selector that pick one or more states by splitting portions of the input multi optical signals across the front and back photodiodes. Boolean operations such as exclusive OR (EXOR) and three bit addition are demonstrated optically with a combination of such switching devices, showing that when one or all of the inputs are present the output will be amplified, the system will behave as an XOR gate representing the SUM. When two or three inputs are on, the system acts as AND gate indicating the present of the CARRY bit. Additional parity logic operations are performed by use of the four incoming pulsed communication channels that are transmitted and checked for errors together. As a simple example of this approach, we describe an all optical processor for error detection and correction and then, provide an experimental demonstration of this fault tolerant reversible system, in emerging nanotechnology.