Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competetive market by a hybrid Pso-Anfis approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

The impact of the 2008 and 2010 financial crises on international stock markets : contagion and long memory

Nesta tese estudamos os efeitos de contágio financeiro e de memória longa causados pelas crises financeiras de 2008 e 2010 em alguns mercados acionistas internacionais. A tese é composta por três ensaios interligados. No Ensaio 1, recorremos à teoria das cópulas para testar a existência de contágio e revelar os canais “investor induced” de transmissão da crise de 2008 aos mercados da Bélgica, França, Holanda e Portugal (grupo NYSE Euronext). Concluímos que existe contágio nestes mercados, que o canal “portfolio rebalancing” é o mecanismo mais importante de transmissão da crise, e que o fenómeno “flight to quality” está presente nos mercados. No Ensaio 2, usando novamente modelos de cópulas, avaliamos os efeitos de contágio provocados pelo mercado acionista grego nos mercados do grupo NYSE Euronext, no contexto da crise de 2010. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que durante a crise de 2010 apenas o mercado português foi objeto de contágio; além disso, conclui-se que os efeitos de contágio provocados pela crise de 2008 são claramente superiores aos efeitos provocados pela crise de 2010. No Ensaio 3, abordamos o tema da memória longa através do estudo do expoente de Hurst dos mercados acionistas da Bélgica, E.U.A., França, Grécia, Holanda, Japão, Reino Unido e Portugal. Verificamos que as propriedades de memória longa dos mercados foram afetadas pelas crises, especialmente a de 2008 – que aumentou a memória longa dos mercados e tornou-os mais persistentes. Finalmente, usando cópulas mais uma vez, verificamos que as crises provocaram, em geral, um aumento na correlação entre os expoentes de Hurst locais dos mercados foco das crises (E.U.A. e Grécia) e os expoentes de Hurst locais dos outros mercados da amostra, sugerindo que o expoente de Hurst pode ser utilizado para detetar efeitos de contágio financeiro. Em síntese, os resultados desta tese sugerem que comparativamente com períodos de acalmia, os períodos de crises financeiras tendem a provocar ineficiência nos mercados acionistas e a conduzi-los na direção da persistência e do contágio financeiro.

XII Iberian-Italian Congress of Financial and Actuarial Mathematics

"The purpose of the XII Iberian-Italian Congress of Financial and Actuarial Mathematics is to provide a meeting point for researchers in Financial Economics from different countries and research backgrounds in universities, government or financial institutions. In fact, the Congress which is currently taking place in Lisbon has been organized to encourage communication and debate among the participants as well as to reinforce the bonds between us.The current edition of the Congress is characterized by the quality and diversity of the papers that have been submitted with special attention to the International Financial Crisis and measures of risk in different financial markets. However, as the Congress Program indicates, there are also parallel sessions about traditional topics in finance such as asset pricing, insurance, corporate finance, etc.Although this Congress has always been organized alternately between Spain and Italy, this year we have the great pleasure of celebrating it in Portugal which will be included as a permanent partner." [prefácio]