The daily and hourly energy consumption and load forecasting using artifitial neural network method: a case study using a set of 93 households in Portugal

It is important to understand and forecast a typical or a particularly household daily consumption in order to design and size suitable renewable energy systems and energy storage. In this research for Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) it has been used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and, despite the consumption unpredictability, it has been shown the possibility to forecast the electricity consumption of a household with certainty. The ANNs are recognized to be a potential methodology for modeling hourly and daily energy consumption and load forecasting. Input variables such as apartment area, numbers of occupants, electrical appliance consumption and Boolean inputs as hourly meter system were considered. Furthermore, the investigation carried out aims to define an ANN architecture and a training algorithm in order to achieve a robust model to be used in forecasting energy consumption in a typical household. It was observed that a feed-forward ANN and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm provided a good performance. For this research it was used a database with consumption records, logged in 93 real households, in Lisbon, Portugal, between February 2000 and July 2001, including both weekdays and weekend. The results show that the ANN approach provides a reliable model for forecasting household electric energy consumption and load profile. © 2014 The Author.

Enhancing the selection of a model-based clustering with external categorical variables

In cluster analysis, it can be useful to interpret the partition built from the data in the light of external categorical variables which are not directly involved to cluster the data. An approach is proposed in the model-based clustering context to select a number of clusters which both fits the data well and takes advantage of the potential illustrative ability of the external variables. This approach makes use of the integrated joint likelihood of the data and the partitions at hand, namely the model-based partition and the partitions associated to the external variables. It is noteworthy that each mixture model is fitted by the maximum likelihood methodology to the data, excluding the external variables which are used to select a relevant mixture model only. Numerical experiments illustrate the promising behaviour of the derived criterion. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Evaluation of the influence of testing parameters on the melt flow index of thermoplastics

The main goals of the present work are the evaluation of the influence of several variables and test parameters on the melt flow index (MFI) of thermoplastics, and the determination of the uncertainty associated with the measurements. To evaluate the influence of test parameters on the measurement of MFI the design of experiments (DOE) approach has been used. The uncertainty has been calculated using a "bottom-up" approach given in the "Guide to the Expression of the Uncertainty of Measurement" (GUM). Since an analytical expression relating the output response (MFI) with input parameters does not exist, it has been necessary to build mathematical models by adjusting the experimental observations of the response variable in accordance with each input parameter. Subsequently, the determination of the uncertainty associated with the measurement of MFI has been performed by applying the law of propagation of uncertainty to the values of uncertainty of the input parameters. Finally, the activation energy (Ea) of the melt flow at around 200 degrees C and the respective uncertainty have also been determined.

Liquid crystal beads constrained on thin cellulosic fibers: Electric field induced microrotors and N-I transition

We directly visualize the response of nematic liquid crystal drops of toroidal topology threaded in cellulosic fibers, suspended in air, to an AC electric field and at different temperatures over the N-I transition. This new liquid crystal system can exhibit non-trivial point defects, which can be energetically unstable against expanding into ring defects depending on the fiber constraining geometries. The director anchoring tangentially near the fiber surface and homeotropically at the air interface makes a hybrid shell distribution that in turn causes a ring disclination line around the main axis of the fiber at the center of the droplet. Upon application of an electric field, E, the disclination ring first expands and moves along the fiber main axis, followed by the appearance of a stable "spherical particle" object orbiting around the fiber at the center of the liquid crystal drop. The rotation speed of this particle was found to vary linearly with the applied voltage. This constrained liquid crystal geometry seems to meet the essential requirements in which soliton-like deformations can develop and exhibit stable orbiting in three dimensions upon application of an external electric field. On changing the temperature the system remains stable and allows the study of the defect evolution near the nematic-isotropic transition, showing qualitatively different behaviour on cooling and heating processes. The necklaces of such liquid crystal drops constitute excellent systems for the study of topological defects and their evolution and open new perspectives for application in microelectronics and photonics.

Comparison between monopolar and bipolar microsecond range pulsed electric fields in enhancement of apple juice extraction

The effect of monopolar and bipolar shaped pulses in additional yield of apple juice extraction is evaluated. The applied electric field strength, pulsewidth, and number of pulses are assessed for both pulse types, and divergences are analyzed. Variation of electric field strength is ranged from 100 to 1300 V/cm, pulsewidth from 20 to 300 mu s, and the number of pulses from 10 to 200, at a frequency of 200 Hz. Two pulse trains separated by 1 s are applied to apple cubes. Results are plotted against reference untreated samples for all assays. Specific energy consumption is calculated for each experiment as well as qualitative indicators for apple juice of total soluble dry matter and absorbance at 390-nm wavelength. Bipolar pulses demonstrated higher efficiency, and specific energetic consumption has a threshold where higher inputs of energy do not result in higher juice extraction when electric field variation is applied. Total soluble dry matter and absorbance results do not illustrate significant differences between application of monopolar and bipolar pulses, but all values are inside the limits proposed for apple juice intended for human consumption.

Electric vehicles as a mean to reduce, energy, emissions and electricity costs

Electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which obtain their fuel from the grid by charging a battery, are set to be introduced into the mass market and expected to contribute to oil consumption reduction. This research is concerned with studying the potential impacts on the electric utilities of large-scale adoption of plug-in electric vehicles from the perspective of electricity demand, fossil fuels use, CO2 emissions and energy costs. Simulations were applied to the Portuguese case study in order to analyze what would be the optimal recharge profile and EV penetration in an energy-oriented, an emissions-oriented and a cost-oriented objective. The objectives considered were: The leveling of load profiles, minimization of daily emissions and minimization of daily wholesale costs. Almost all solutions point to an off-peak recharge and a 50% reduction in daily wholesale costs can be verified from a peak recharge scenario to an off-peak recharge for a 2 million EVs in 2020. A 15% improvement in the daily total wholesale costs can be verified in the costs minimization objective when compared with the off-peak scenario result.

Is the electric vehicle a solution for the wind power integration in the portuguese power system?

The integration of Plug-in electric vehicles in the transportation sector has a great potential to reduce oil dependency, the GHG emissions and to contribute for the integration of renewable sources into the electricity generation mix. Portugal has a high share of wind energy, and curtailment may occur, especially during the off-peak hours with high levels of hydro generation. In this context, the electric vehicles, seen as a distributed storage system, can help to reduce the potential wind curtailments and, therefore, increase the integration of wind power into the power system. In order to assess the energy and environmental benefits of this integration, a methodology based on a unit commitment and economic dispatch is adapted and implemented. From this methodology, the thermal generation costs, the CO2 emissions and the potential wind generation curtailment are computed. Simulation results show that a 10% penetration of electric vehicles in the Portuguese fleet would increase electrical load by 3% and reduce wind curtailment by only 26%. This results from the fact that the additional generation required to supply the electric vehicles is mostly thermal. The computed CO2 emissions of the EV are 92 g CO2/kWh which become closer to those of some new ICE engines.

Pulsed electric field pre-treatment for apple juice extraction: Evaluation of monopolar and bipolar pulses effects

Additional apple juice extraction with pulsed electric field pretreated apple cubes towards control samples is evaluated. Monopolar and bipolar shaped pulses are compared and their effect is studied with variation of electric field, pulse width and number of pulses. Variation of electric field strength is ranged from 100 V/cm to 1300 V/cm, pulse width from 20 mu s to 300 mu s and number of pulses from 10 to 200, at frequency of 200Hz. Two pulse trains separated by 1 second are applied to all samples. Bipolar pulses showed higher apple juice yields with all studied parameters. Calculation of specific energies consumed was assessed and a threshold where higher energy inputs do not increase juice yield is found for a number of used parameters. Qualitative parameters of total soluble matter (Brix) and absorbance at 390 nm wavelength were determined for each sample and results show that no substantial differences are found for PEF pre-treated and control samples.

The electric vehicles as a mean to reduce Co2 emissions and energy costs in isolated regions: the São Miguel (Azores) case study

Most of small islands around the world today, are dependent on imported fossil fuels for the majority of their energy needs especially for transport activities and electricity production. The use of locally renewable energy resources and the implementation of energy efficiency measures could make a significant contribution to their economic development by reducing fossil fuel imports. An electrification of vehicles has been suggested as a way to both reduce pollutant emissions and increase security of supply of the transportation sector by reducing the dependence on oil products imports and facilitate the accommodation of renewable electricity generation, such as wind and, in the case of volcanic islands like Sao Miguel (Azores) of the geothermal energy whose penetration has been limited by the valley electricity consumption level. In this research, three scenarios of EV penetration were studied and it was verified that, for a 15% LD fleet replacement by EVs with 90% of all energy needs occurring during the night, the accommodation of 10 MW of new geothermal capacity becomes viable. Under this scenario, reductions of 8% in electricity costs, 14% in energy, 23% in fossil fuels use and CO2 emissions for the transportation and electricity production sectors could be expected.

18F-FDG measurement in primary lung cancer: SUV normalization to different distribution volumes

Introduction: Standard Uptake Value (SUV) is a measurement of the uptake in a tumour normalized on the basis of a distribution volume and is used to quantify 18F-Fluorodeoxiglucose (FDG) uptake in tumors, such as primary lung tumor. Several sources of error can affect its accuracy. Normalization can be based on body weight, body surface area (BSA) and lean body mass (LBM). The aim of this study is to compare the influence of 3 normalization volumes in the calculation of SUV: body weight (SUVW), BSA (SUVBSA) and LBM (SUVLBM), with and without glucose correction, in patients with known primary lung tumor. The correlation between SUV and weight, height, blood glucose level, injected activity and time between injection and image acquisition is evaluated. Methods: Sample included 30 subjects (8 female and 22 male) with primary lung tumor, with clinical indication for 18F-FDG Positron Emission Tomography (PET). Images were acquired on a Siemens Biography according to the department’s protocol. Maximum pixel SUVW was obtained for abnormal uptake focus through semiautomatic VOI with Quantification 3D isocontour (threshold 2.5). The concentration of radioactivity (kBq/ml) was obtained from SUVW, SUVBSA, SUVLBM and the glucose corrected SUV were mathematically obtained. Results: Statistically significant differences between SUVW, SUVBSA and SUVLBM and between SUVWgluc, SUVBSAgluc and SUVLBMgluc were observed (p=0.000<0.05). The blood glucose level showed significant positive correlations with SUVW (r=0.371; p=0.043) and SUVLBM (r=0.389; p=0.034). SUVBSA showed independence of variations with the blood glucose level. Conclusion: The measurement of a radiopharmaceutical tumor uptake normalized on the basis of different distribution volumes is still variable. Further investigation on this subject is recommended.

Mobile cockpit system for enhanced electric bicycle use

This paper presents the project of a mobile cockpit system (MCS) for smartphones, which provides assistance to electric bicycle (EB) cyclists in smart cities' environment. The presented system introduces a mobile application (MCS App) with the goal to provide useful personalized information to the cyclist related to the EB's use, including EB range prediction considering the intended path, management of the cycling effort performed by the cyclist, handling of the battery charging process, and the provisioning of information regarding available public transport. This work also introduces the EB cyclist profile concept, which is based on historical data analysis previously stored in a database and collected from mobile devices' sensors. From the tests performed, the results show the importance of route guidance, taking into account the energy savings. The results also show significant changes on range prediction based on user and route taken. It is important to say that the proposed system can be used for all bicycles in general.

Determinação dos valores de referência da excursão sistólica do plano do anel tricúspide (TAPSE) em crianças saudáveis

Mestrado em Tecnologia de Diagnóstico e Intervenção Cardiovascular - Área de especialização: Ultrassonografia cardiovascular

Control of predators in industrial scale microalgae cultures with Pulsed Electric Fields.

This work describes the utilization of Pulsed Electric Fields to control the protozoan contamination of a microalgae culture, in an industrial 2.7m3 microalgae photobioreactor. The contaminated culture was treated with Pulsed Electric Fields, PEF, for 6h with an average of 900V/cm, 65μs pulses of 50Hz. Working with recirculation, all the culture was uniformly exposed to the PEF throughout the assay. The development of the microalgae and protozoan populations was followed and the results showed that PEF is effective on the selective elimination of protozoa from microalgae cultures, inflicting on the protozoa growth halt, death or cell rupture, without affecting microalgae productivity. Specifically, the results show a reduction of the active protozoan population of 87% after 6h treatment and 100% after few days of normal cultivation regime. At the same time, microalgae growth rate remained unaffected. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

Enhancing the selection of a model-based clustering with external categorical variables

In cluster analysis, it can be useful to interpret the partition built from the data in the light of external categorical variables which are not directly involved to cluster the data. An approach is proposed in the model-based clustering context to select a number of clusters which both fits the data well and takes advantage of the potential illustrative ability of the external variables. This approach makes use of the integrated joint likelihood of the data and the partitions at hand, namely the model-based partition and the partitions associated to the external variables. It is noteworthy that each mixture model is fitted by the maximum likelihood methodology to the data, excluding the external variables which are used to select a relevant mixture model only. Numerical experiments illustrate the promising behaviour of the derived criterion.

Layerwise mixed models for analysis of multilayered piezoelectric composite plates using least-squares formulation

This work provides an assessment of layerwise mixed models using least-squares formulation for the coupled electromechanical static analysis of multilayered plates. In agreement with three-dimensional (3D) exact solutions, due to compatibility and equilibrium conditions at the layers interfaces, certain mechanical and electrical variables must fulfill interlaminar C-0 continuity, namely: displacements, in-plane strains, transverse stresses, electric potential, in-plane electric field components and transverse electric displacement (if no potential is imposed between layers). Hence, two layerwise mixed least-squares models are here investigated, with two different sets of chosen independent variables: Model A, developed earlier, fulfills a priori the interiaminar C-0 continuity of all those aforementioned variables, taken as independent variables; Model B, here newly developed, rather reduces the number of independent variables, but also fulfills a priori the interlaminar C-0 continuity of displacements, transverse stresses, electric potential and transverse electric displacement, taken as independent variables. The predictive capabilities of both models are assessed by comparison with 3D exact solutions, considering multilayered piezoelectric composite plates of different aspect ratios, under an applied transverse load or surface potential. It is shown that both models are able to predict an accurate quasi-3D description of the static electromechanical analysis of multilayered plates for all aspect ratios.