Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competetive market by a hybrid Pso-Anfis approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

(E)xperimental study of the porosity and microstructure of self-compacting concrete (SCC) with binary and ternary mixes of fly ash and limestone filler

Self-compacting concrete (SCC) can soon be expected to replace conventional concrete due to its many advantages. Its main characteristics in the fresh state are achieved essentially by a higher volume of mortar (more ultrafine material) and a decrease of the coarse-aggregates. The use of over-large volumes of additions such as fly ash (FA) and/or limestone filler (LF) can substantially affect the concrete's pore structure and consequently its durability. In this context, an experimental programme was conducted to evaluate the effect on the concrete's porosity and microstructure of incorporating FA and LF in binary and ternary mixes of SCC. For this, a total of 11 SIX mixes were produced; 1 with cement only (C); 3 with C + FA in 30%, 60% and 70% substitution (fad); 3 with C + LF in 30%, 60% and 70% fad; 4 with C + FA + LF in combinations of 10-20%, 20-10%, 20-40% and 40-20% f(ad), respectively. The results enabled conclusions to be established regarding the SCC's durability, based on its permeability and the microstructure of its pore structure. The properties studied are strongly affected by the type and quantity of additions. The use of ternary mixes also proves to be extremely favourable, confirming the beneficial effect of the synergy between these additions. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimental study of the porosity and microstructure of self-compacting concrete (SCC) with binary and ternary mixes of fly ash and limestone filler

Abstract Self-compacting concrete (SCC) can soon be expected to replace conventional concrete due to its many advantages. Its main characteristics in the fresh state are achieved essentially by a higher volume of mortar (more ultrafine material) and a decrease of the coarse-aggregates. The use of over-large volumes of additions such as fly ash (FA) and/or limestone filler (LF) can substantially affect the concrete's pore structure and consequently its durability. In this context, an experimental programme was conducted to evaluate the effect on the concrete's porosity and microstructure of incorporating FA and LF in binary and ternary mixes of SCC. For this, a total of 11 SCC mixes were produced: 1 with cement only (C); 3 with C + FA in 30%, 60% and 70% substitution (fad); 3 with C + LF in 30%, 60% and 70% fad; 4 with C + FA + LF in combinations of 10-20%, 20-10%, 20-40% and 40-20% fad, respectively. The results enabled conclusions to be established regarding the SCC's durability, based on its permeability and the microstructure of its pore structure. The properties studied are strongly affected by the type and quantity of additions. The use of ternary mixes also proves to be extremely favourable, confirming the beneficial effect of the synergy between these additions. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.