Abordagem à previsão do preço de energia elétrica via métodos de suavização exponencial

Dissertação para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Energia

A eficácia dos modelos de previsão de falência: aplicação ao caso das sociedades portuguesas

Mestrado em Controlo e Gestão e dos Negócios

Stability of the tree-level vacuum in two Higgs doublet models against charge or CP spontaneous violation

We show that in two Higgs doublet models at tree-level the potential minimum preserving electric charge and CP symmetries, when it exists, is the global one. Furthermore, we derived a very simple condition, involving only the coefficients of the quartic terms of the potential, that guarantees spontaneous CP breaking. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Anomaly-free U(1) gauge symmetries in neutrino seesaw flavor models

Agência Financiadora: Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) - PEst-OE/FIS/UI0777/2013; CERN/FP/123580/2011; PTDC/FIS-NUC/0548/2012

Automatic synthesis of VHDL Hardware Components from IOPT Petri Net models

Conferência: 39th Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial-Electronics-Society (IECON), Vienna, Austria, Nov 10-14, 2013

Estratégias de investimento em mercados liberalizados de energia elétrica

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo Energia

Metaheuristic approach to the Holt-Winters optimal short term load forecast

Electricity short-term load forecast is very important for the operation of power systems. In this work a classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions applied to the Portuguese demand time series. Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were used and the results after testing in the time series showed little differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.

Metaheuristhic approach to the Holt-Winters optimal short term load forecast

Electricity short-term load forecast is very important for the operation of power systems. In this work a classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions applied to the Portuguese demand time series. Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were used and the results after testing in the time series showed little differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.

Renewable power forecast to scheduling of thermal units

In this work is discussed the importance of the renewable production forecast in an island environment. A probabilistic forecast based on kernel density estimators is proposed. The aggregation of these forecasts, allows the determination of thermal generation amount needed to schedule and operating a power grid of an island with high penetration of renewable generation. A case study based on electric system of S. Miguel Island is presented. The results show that the forecast techniques are an imperative tool help the grid management.

Constraining multi-Higgs flavour models

To study a flavour model with a non-minimal Higgs sector one must first define the symmetries of the fields; then identify what types of vacua exist and how they may break the symmetries; and finally determine whether the remnant symmetries are compatible with the experimental data. Here we address all these issues in the context of flavour models with any number of Higgs doublets. We stress the importance of analysing the Higgs vacuum expectation values that are pseudo-invariant under the generators of all subgroups. It is shown that the only way of obtaining a physical CKM mixing matrix and, simultaneously, non-degenerate and non-zero quark masses is requiring the vacuum expectation values of the Higgs fields to break completely the full flavour group, except possibly for some symmetry belonging to baryon number. The application of this technique to some illustrative examples, such as the flavour groups Delta (27), A(4) and S-3, is also presented.

Travelling wave profiles in some models with nonlinear diffusion

We study some properties of the monotone solutions of the boundary value problem (p(u'))' - cu' + f(u) = 0, u(-infinity) = 0, u(+infinity) = 1, where f is a continuous function, positive in (0, 1) and taking the value zero at 0 and 1, and P may be an increasing homeomorphism of (0, 1) or (0, +infinity) onto [0, +infinity). This problem arises when we look for travelling waves for the reaction diffusion equation partial derivative u/partial derivative t = partial derivative/partial derivative x [p(partial derivative u/partial derivative x)] + f(u) with the parameter c representing the wave speed. A possible model for the nonlinear diffusion is the relativistic curvature operator p(nu)= nu/root 1-nu(2). The same ideas apply when P is given by the one- dimensional p- Laplacian P(v) = |v|(p-2)v. In this case, an advection term is also considered. We show that, as for the classical Fisher- Kolmogorov- Petrovski- Piskounov equations, there is an interval of admissible speeds c and we give characterisations of the critical speed c. We also present some examples of exact solutions. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of the ensembles regional climate models in the representation of precipitation variability and extremes over Portugal

A new data set of daily gridded observations of precipitation, computed from over 400 stations in Portugal, is used to assess the performance of 12 regional climate models at 25 km resolution, from the ENSEMBLES set, all forced by ERA-40 boundary conditions, for the 1961-2000 period. Standard point error statistics, calculated from grid point and basin aggregated data, and precipitation related climate indices are used to analyze the performance of the different models in representing the main spatial and temporal features of the regional climate, and its extreme events. As a whole, the ENSEMBLES models are found to achieve a good representation of those features, with good spatial correlations with observations. There is a small but relevant negative bias in precipitation, especially in the driest months, leading to systematic errors in related climate indices. The underprediction of precipitation occurs in most percentiles, although this deficiency is partially corrected at the basin level. Interestingly, some of the conclusions concerning the performance of the models are different of what has been found for the contiguous territory of Spain; in particular, ENSEMBLES models appear too dry over Portugal and too wet over Spain. Finally, models behave quite differently in the simulation of some important aspects of local climate, from the mean climatology to high precipitation regimes in localized mountain ranges and in the subsequent drier regions.

Probabilistic models for mechanical properties of prestressing strands

This study focus on the probabilistic modelling of mechanical properties of prestressing strands based on data collected from tensile tests carried out in Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC), Portugal, for certification purposes, and covers a period of about 9 years of production. The strands studied were produced by six manufacturers from four countries, namely Portugal, Spain, Italy and Thailand. Variability of the most important mechanical properties is examined and the results are compared with the recommendations of the Probabilistic Model Code, as well as the Eurocodes and earlier studies. The obtained results show a very low variability which, of course, benefits structural safety. Based on those results, probabilistic models for the most important mechanical properties of prestressing strands are proposed.

Generalized models from Beta(p,2) densities with strong allee effect: dynamical approach

A dynamical approach to study the behaviour of generalized populational growth models from Bets(p, 2) densities, with strong Allee effect, is presented. The dynamical analysis of the respective unimodal maps is performed using symbolic dynamics techniques. The complexity of the correspondent discrete dynamical systems is measured in terms of topological entropy. Different populational dynamics regimes are obtained when the intrinsic growth rates are modified: extinction, bistability, chaotic semistability and essential extinction.

Joining models with stair nesting

In the stair nested designs with u factors we have u steps and a(1), ... , a(u) "active" levels. We would have a(1) observations with different levels for the first factor each of them nesting a single level of each of the remaining factors; next a(2) observations with level a(1) + 1 for the first factor and distinct levels for the second factor each nesting a fixed level of each of the remaining factors, and so on. So the number of level combinations is Sigma(u)(i=1) a(i). In meta-analysis joint treatment of different experiments is considered. Joining the corresponding models may be useful to carry out that analysis. In this work we want joining L models with stair nesting.