22 resultados para Extinction Probabilities


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A new method is proposed to control delayed transitions towards extinction in single population theoretical models with discrete time undergoing saddle-node bifurcations. The control method takes advantage of the delaying properties of the saddle remnant arising after the bifurcation, and allows to sustain populations indefinitely. Our method, which is shown to work for deterministic and stochastic systems, could generally be applied to avoid transitions tied to one-dimensional maps after saddle-node bifurcations.

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A dynamical approach to study the behaviour of generalized populational growth models from Bets(p, 2) densities, with strong Allee effect, is presented. The dynamical analysis of the respective unimodal maps is performed using symbolic dynamics techniques. The complexity of the correspondent discrete dynamical systems is measured in terms of topological entropy. Different populational dynamics regimes are obtained when the intrinsic growth rates are modified: extinction, bistability, chaotic semistability and essential extinction.

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Density-dependent effects, both positive or negative, can have an important impact on the population dynamics of species by modifying their population per-capita growth rates. An important type of such density-dependent factors is given by the so-called Allee effects, widely studied in theoretical and field population biology. In this study, we analyze two discrete single population models with overcompensating density-dependence and Allee effects due to predator saturation and mating limitation using symbolic dynamics theory. We focus on the scenarios of persistence and bistability, in which the species dynamics can be chaotic. For the chaotic regimes, we compute the topological entropy as well as the Lyapunov exponent under ecological key parameters and different initial conditions. We also provide co-dimension two bifurcation diagrams for both systems computing the periods of the orbits, also characterizing the period-ordering routes toward the boundary crisis responsible for species extinction via transient chaos. Our results show that the topological entropy increases as we approach to the parametric regions involving transient chaos, being maximum when the full shift R(L)(infinity) occurs, and the system enters into the essential extinction regime. Finally, we characterize analytically, using a complex variable approach, and numerically the inverse square-root scaling law arising in the vicinity of a saddle-node bifurcation responsible for the extinction scenario in the two studied models. The results are discussed in the context of species fragility under differential Allee effects. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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We report and analyze the halting of the fuse effect propagation in optical fiber microwires. The increase of the mode field diameter in the tapered region decreases the optical intensity resulting in the extinction of the fuse effect. This fiber element presents a low insertion loss and can be introduced in the optical network in order to protect the active equipment from the damage caused by the fuse effect. (C) 2012 Optical Society of America

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Relatório de Estágio apresentado à Escola Superior de Educação de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de mestre em Ensino do 1.º e 2.º Ciclo do Ensino Básico

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Clustering ensemble methods produce a consensus partition of a set of data points by combining the results of a collection of base clustering algorithms. In the evidence accumulation clustering (EAC) paradigm, the clustering ensemble is transformed into a pairwise co-association matrix, thus avoiding the label correspondence problem, which is intrinsic to other clustering ensemble schemes. In this paper, we propose a consensus clustering approach based on the EAC paradigm, which is not limited to crisp partitions and fully exploits the nature of the co-association matrix. Our solution determines probabilistic assignments of data points to clusters by minimizing a Bregman divergence between the observed co-association frequencies and the corresponding co-occurrence probabilities expressed as functions of the unknown assignments. We additionally propose an optimization algorithm to find a solution under any double-convex Bregman divergence. Experiments on both synthetic and real benchmark data show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

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The capability to anticipate a contact with another device can greatly improve the performance and user satisfaction not only of mobile social network applications but of any other relying on some form of data harvesting or hoarding. One of the most promising approaches for contact prediction is to extrapolate from past experiences. This paper investigates the recurring contact patterns observed between groups of devices using an 8-year dataset of wireless access logs produced by more than 70000 devices. This effort permitted to model the probabilities of occurrence of a contact at a predefined date between groups of devices using a power law distribution that varies according to neighbourhood size and recurrence period. In the general case, the model can be used by applications that need to disseminate large datasets by groups of devices. As an example, the paper presents and evaluates an algorithm that provides daily contact predictions, based on the history of past pairwise contacts and their duration. Copyright © 2015 ICST.