The daily and hourly energy consumption and load forecasting using artifitial neural network method: a case study using a set of 93 households in Portugal

It is important to understand and forecast a typical or a particularly household daily consumption in order to design and size suitable renewable energy systems and energy storage. In this research for Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) it has been used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and, despite the consumption unpredictability, it has been shown the possibility to forecast the electricity consumption of a household with certainty. The ANNs are recognized to be a potential methodology for modeling hourly and daily energy consumption and load forecasting. Input variables such as apartment area, numbers of occupants, electrical appliance consumption and Boolean inputs as hourly meter system were considered. Furthermore, the investigation carried out aims to define an ANN architecture and a training algorithm in order to achieve a robust model to be used in forecasting energy consumption in a typical household. It was observed that a feed-forward ANN and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm provided a good performance. For this research it was used a database with consumption records, logged in 93 real households, in Lisbon, Portugal, between February 2000 and July 2001, including both weekdays and weekend. The results show that the ANN approach provides a reliable model for forecasting household electric energy consumption and load profile. © 2014 The Author.

O impacto energético e as emissões de CO2 dos veículos eléctricos em Portugal

Para a diminuição da dependência energética de Portugal face às importações de energia, a Estratégia Nacional para a Energia 2020 (ENE 2020) define uma aposta na produção de energia a partir de fontes renováveis, na promoção da eficiência energética tanto nos edifícios como nos transportes com vista a reduzir as emissões de gases com efeito de estufa. No campo da eficiência energética, o ENE 2020 pretende obter uma poupança energética de 9,8% face a valores de 2008, traduzindo-se em perto de 1800 milhões de tep já em 2015. Uma das medidas passa pela aposta na mobilidade eléctrica, onde se prevê que os veículos eléctricos possam contribuir significativamente para a redução do consumo de combustível e por conseguinte, para a redução das emissões de CO2 para a atmosfera. No entanto, esta redução está condicionada pelas fontes de energia utilizadas para o abastecimento das baterias. Neste estudo foram determinados os consumos de combustível e as emissões de CO2 de um veículo de combustão interna adimensional representativo do parque automóvel. É também estimada a previsão de crescimento do parque automóvel num cenário "Business-as-Usual", através dos métodos de previsão tecnológica para o horizonte 2010-2030, bem como cenários de penetração de veículos eléctricos para o mesmo período com base no método de Fisher- Pry. É ainda analisado o impacto que a introdução dos veículos eléctricos tem ao nível dos consumos de combustível, das emissões de dióxido de carbono e qual o impacto que tal medida terá na rede eléctrica, nomeadamente no diagrama de carga e no nível de emissões de CO2 do Sistema Electroprodutor Nacional. Por fim, é avaliado o impacto dos veículos eléctricos no diagrama de carga diário português, com base em vários perfis de carga das baterias. A introdução de veículos eléctricos em Portugal terá pouca expressão dado que, no melhor dos cenários haverão somente cerca de 85 mil unidades em circulação, no ano de 2030. Ao nível do consumo de combustíveis rodoviários, os veículos eléctricos poderão vir a reduzir o consumo de gasolina até 0,52% e até 0,27% no consumo de diesel, entre 2010 e 2030, contribuindo ligeiramente uma menor dependência energética externa. Ao nível do consumo eléctrico, o abastecimento das baterias dos veículos eléctricos representará até 0,5% do consumo eléctrico total, sendo que parte desse abastecimento será garantido através de centrais de ciclo combinado a gás natural. Apesar da maior utilização deste tipo de centrais térmicas para produção de energia, tanto para abastecimento das viaturas eléctricas, como para o consumo em geral, verifica-se que em 2030, o nível de emissões do sistema electroprodutor será cerca de 46% inferior aos níveis registados em 2010, prevendo-se que atinja as 0,163gCO2/kWh produzido pelo Sistema Electroprodutor Nacional devido à maior quota de produção das fontes de energia renovável, como o vento, a hídrica ou a solar.

Controlo preditivo distribuído em edifícios para conforto térmico e alocação de cargas

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Automação e Electrónica Industrial

Impacto económico, energético e ambiental da produção renovável na Ilha Terceira

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Energia

Renewable energy in Islands: an integrated proposal for electricity generation and transports

The purpose of this article is to analyse and evaluate the economical, energetic and environmental impacts of the increasing penetration of renewable energies and electrical vehicles in isolated systems, such as Terceira Island in Azores and Madeira Island. Given the fact that the islands are extremely dependent on the importation of fossil fuels - not only for the production of energy, but also for the transportation’s sector – it’s intended to analyse how it is possible to reduce that dependency and determine the resultant reduction of pollutant gas emissions. Different settings have been analysed - with and without the penetration of EVs. The Terceira Island is an interesting case study, where EVs charging during off-peak hours could allow an increase in geothermal power, limited by the valley of power demand. The percentage of renewable energy in the electric power mix could reach the 74% in 2030 while at the same time, it is possible to reduce the emissions of pollutant gases in 45% and the purchase of fossil fuels in 44%. In Madeira, apart from wind, solar and small hydro power, there are not so many endogenous resources and the Island’s emission factor cannot be so reduced as in Terceira. Although, it is possible to reduce fossil fuels imports and emissions in 1.8% in 2030 when compared with a BAU scenario with a 14% of the LD fleet composed by EVs.

Renewable energy in Islands: an integrated proposal for electricity generation and transports

The purpose of this article is to analyse and evaluate the economical, energetic and environmental impacts of the increasing penetration of renewable energies and electrical vehicles in isolated systems, such as Terceira Island in Azores and Madeira Island. Given the fact that the islands are extremely dependent on the importation of fossil fuels - not only for the production of energy, but also for the transportation’s sector – it’s intended to analyse how it is possible to reduce that dependency and determine the resultant reduction of pollutant gas emissions. Different settings have been analysed - with and without the penetration of EVs. The Terceira Island is an interesting case study, where EVs charging during off-peak hours could allow an increase in geothermal power, limited by the valley of power demand. The percentage of renewable energy in the electric power mix could reach the 74% in 2030 while at the same time, it is possible to reduce the emissions of pollutant gases in 45% and the purchase of fossil fuels in 44%. In Madeira, apart from wind, solar and small hydro power, there are not so many endogenous resources and the Island’s emission factor cannot be so reduced as in Terceira. Although, it is possible to reduce fossil fuels imports and emissions in 1.8% in 2030 when compared with a BAU scenario with a 14% of the LD fleet composed by EVs.

Photonics Active Filters Based on SiC Multi layer Structures: A Two Stage Active Circuit

Characteristics of tunable wavelength filters based on a-SiC:H multi-layered stacked cells are studied both theoretically and experimentally. Results show that the light-activated photonic device combines the demultiplexing operation with the simultaneous photodetection and self amplification of an optical signal. The sensor is a bias wavelength current-controlled device that make use of changes in the wavelength of the background to control the power delivered to the load, acting a photonic active filter. Its gain depends on the background wavelength that controls the electrical field profile across the device.

Low Profile Multi-Band Antenna for Mobile Communications

In this paper, the design of low profile antennas by using Electromagnetic Band Gap (EBG) structures is introduced. Taking advantage of the fact that they can behave as Perfect Magnetic Conductor (PMC), it is shown that these structures exhibit dual band in-phase reflection at WLAN (Wireless Local Area Network) bands, the 2.4 GHz and 5.2 GHz bands. These structures are applied to PIFA (Planar Inverted-F Antenna) and the results show that it is possible to obtain low profile PIFA's.

High Performance Multi-Standard Architecture for DCT Computation in H.264/AVC High Profile and HEVC Codecs

A new high performance architecture for the computation of all the DCT operations adopted in the H.264/AVC and HEVC standards is proposed in this paper. Contrasting to other dedicated transform cores, the presented multi-standard transform architecture is supported on a completely configurable, scalable and unified structure, that is able to compute not only the forward and the inverse 8×8 and 4×4 integer DCTs and the 4×4 and 2×2 Hadamard transforms defined in the H.264/AVC standard, but also the 4×4, 8×8, 16×16 and 32×32 integer transforms adopted in HEVC. Experimental results obtained using a Xilinx Virtex-7 FPGA demonstrated the superior performance and hardware efficiency levels provided by the proposed structure, which outperforms its more prominent related designs by at least 1.8 times. When integrated in a multi-core embedded system, this architecture allows the computation, in real-time, of all the transforms mentioned above for resolutions as high as the 8k Ultra High Definition Television (UHDTV) (7680×4320 @ 30fps).

Distributed MPC for Thermal Comfort and Load Allocation with Energy Auction

This paper presents a distributed predictive control methodology for indoor thermal comfort that optimizes the consumption of a limited shared energy resource using an integrated demand-side management approach that involves a power price auction and an appliance loads allocation scheme. The control objective for each subsystem (house or building) aims to minimize the energy cost while maintaining the indoor temperature inside comfort limits. In a distributed coordinated multi-agent ecosystem, each house or building control agent achieves its objectives while sharing, among them, the available energy through the introduction of particular coupling constraints in their underlying optimization problem. Coordination is maintained by a daily green energy auction bring in a demand-side management approach. Also the implemented distributed MPC algorithm is described and validated with simulation studies.

Metaheuristic approach to the Holt-Winters optimal short term load forecast

Electricity short-term load forecast is very important for the operation of power systems. In this work a classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions applied to the Portuguese demand time series. Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were used and the results after testing in the time series showed little differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.

Metaheuristhic approach to the Holt-Winters optimal short term load forecast

Electricity short-term load forecast is very important for the operation of power systems. In this work a classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions applied to the Portuguese demand time series. Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were used and the results after testing in the time series showed little differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.

Impact of a price-maker pumped storage hydro unit on the integration of wind energy in power systems

The increasing integration of larger amounts of wind energy into power systems raises important operational issues, such as the balance between power generation and demand. The pumped storage hydro (PSH) units are one possible solution to mitigate this problem, once they can store the excess of energy in the periods of higher generation and lower demand. However, the behaviour of a PSH unit may differ considerably from the expected in terms of wind power integration when it operates in a liberalized electricity market under a price-maker context. In this regard, this paper models and computes the optimal PSH weekly scheduling in a price-taker and price-maker scenarios, either when the PSH unit operates in standalone and integrated in a portfolio of other generation assets. Results show that the price-maker standalone PSH will integrate less wind power in comparison with the price-taker situation. Moreover, when the PSH unit is integrated in a portfolio with a base load power plant, the role of the price elasticity of demand may completely change the operational profile of the PSH unit. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Insulin resistance does not play a major role in lipid and apolipoprotein profile in obese women

Background: Obesity is associated with increased atherogenesis through alterations in lipids, among other potential factors. Some of those abnormalities might be mediated by insulin resistance (IR). Aims: To compare lipid and apolipoprotein profile between lean and obese women; to evaluate the influence of IR on lipid and apolipoprotein profile, in obese women. Methods: We studied 112 obese and 100 normal-weight premenopausal women without known cardiovascular disease. Both groups were characterized for anthropometrics and a fasting blood sample was collected for assessment of glucose, insulin, triglycerides, cholesterol (total, LDL and HDL), and apolipoproteins A-I, A-II, B, C-II, C-III, and E; IR was assessed by the homeostatic model assessment (HOMA-IR). We compared lipids between obese and lean women; we looked for correlation of those levels with anthropometrics and IR (independently from anthropometrics) in obese women. Results: Obese women were characterized by mean age=34.6±8.3 years, BMI=43.6±7.9 kg/m2, waist circumference (Wc)=117.5±15.1 cm, and HOMA-IR=4.28±3.5. Lean women (age=34.2±8.3 years, BMI=21.4±1.7 kg/m2, Wc=71.7±5.8 cm, and HOMA-IR=1.21±0.76) presented with significantly lower levels of total cholesterol (P=0.001), LDL-cholesterol (P<0.001), and triglycerides (P<0.001); they presented higher levels of HDL-cholesterol (P<0.001), Apo A-I (P<0.001) and Apo A-II (P=0.037). HOMA-IR showed no significant association with apolipoproteins. HOMA-IR was inversely associated with HDL-cholesterol (P=0.048; r=−0.187) but that association disappeared when we adjusted for waist circumference. Only triglycerides were directly associated with HOMA-IR (P<0.001; r=0.343) independently from anthropometrics. Conclusion: We confirm that obese women present worst lipid and apolipoprotein profile. However, with the exception for triglycerides, insulin resistance per se does not play a major role in lipid and apolipoprotein abnormalities observed in obese women.

analytical model and measurements of the target erosion depth profile of balanced and unbalanced planar magnetron cathodes

The erosion depth profile of planar targets in balanced and unbalanced magnetron cathodes with cylindrical symmetry is measured along the target radius. The magnetic fields have rotational symmetry. The horizontal and vertical components of the magnetic field B are measured at points above the cathode target with z = 2 x 10(-3) m. The experimental data reveal that the target erosion depth profile is a function of the angle. made by B with a horizontal line defined by z = 2 x 10(-3) m. To explain this dependence a simplified model of the discharge is developed. In the scope of the model, the pathway lengths of the secondary electrons in the pre-sheath region are calculated by analytical integration of the Lorentz differential equations. Weighting these lengths by using the distribution law of the mean free path of the secondary electrons, we estimate the densities of the ionizing events over the cathode and the relative flux of the sputtered atoms. The expression so deduced correlates for the first time the erosion depth profile of the target with the angle theta. The model shows reasonably good fittings to the experimental target erosion depth profiles confirming that ionization occurs mainly in the pre-sheath zone.