Systems thinking: learning or driving?

The ability to foresee how behaviour of a system arises from the interaction of its components over time - i.e. its dynamic complexity – is seen an important ability to take effective decisions in our turbulent world. Dynamic complexity emerges frequently from interrelated simple structures, such as stocks and flows, feedbacks and delays (Forrester, 1961). Common sense assumes an intuitive understanding of their dynamic behaviour. However, recent researches have pointed to a persistent and systematic error in people understanding of those building blocks of complex systems. This paper describes an empirical study concerning the native ability to understand systems thinking concepts. Two different groups - one, academic, the other, professional – submitted to four tasks, proposed by Sweeney and Sterman (2000) and Sterman (2002). The results confirm a poor intuitive understanding of the basic systems concepts, even when subjects have background in mathematics and sciences.

Systems thinking: learning or driving?

The ability to foresee how behaviour of a system arises from the interaction of its components over time - i.e. its dynamic complexity – is seen an important ability to take effective decisions in our turbulent world. Dynamic complexity emerges frequently from interrelated simple structures, such as stocks and flows, feedbacks and delays (Forrester, 1961). Common sense assumes an intuitive understanding of their dynamic behaviour. However, recent researches have pointed to a persistent and systematic error in people understanding of those building blocks of complex systems. This paper describes an empirical study concerning the native ability to understand systems thinking concepts. Two different groups - one, academic, the other, professional – submitted to four tasks, proposed by Sweeney and Sterman (2000) and Sterman (2002). The results confirm a poor intuitive understanding of the basic systems concepts, even when subjects have background in mathematics and sciences.

International Summer School of Museology

Cadernos de Sociomuseologia Centro de Estudos de Sociomuseologia

Determinantes da (in)eficácia do sistema escolar : uma análise ecológica

Este texto analisa o impacto das estruturas sócio-económicas e socio-institucionais na explicação da eficácia escolar, na transição do sistema de ensino obrigatório, para o ensino secundário, procurando descortinar os factores determinantes da «taxa bruta de escolarização no ensino secundário». Em termos metodológicos, utilizou-se a metodologia ecológica, tomando como unidade de análise os 278 Concelhos do Continente, referente ao período de 2004. A análise dos resultados revela que são os recursos culturais os elementos de clivagem que produzem maior diferenciação na explicação da eficácia do sistema escolar. Esta análise dá um retrato da estrutura socio-económica portuguesa e da estrutura socio-organizativa das escolas, permitindo concluir que os factores mais importantes na explicação da eficácia do sistema escolar se centram na necessidade de alargar a rede escolar de oferta formativa dos cursos profissionais em zonas urbanas; no aumento da procura formativa; num corpo docente estável e no investimento das câmaras em cultura e desporto. Assim, a eficácia escolar tende a mostrar-se mais como um problema estrutural do país, do que como um problema conjuntural de resolução imediata.