Rice Culture of Divine Right

O texto pretende localizar os ritmos do comércio de Bengala durante as oito hegemonias sucessivas que dominaram a Ásia meridional e a Ásia do Sudeste entre 2000 BC e 1750 AD. Estas foram: 1) A transição inicial de tribalismo para Estados sob a orientação do Bramanismo; 2) Budismo; 3) Revivalismo brâmane (purânico) nos séculos IX e X; 4) A revolução comercial no Golfo de Bengala no século XI; 5) A ordem mongol; 6) A primeira rede islâmica; 7) O sistema-mundo europeu do tipo português; 8) O sistema de Estados no século XVI – um segundo sistema-mundo islâmico. O texto sugere que Bengala manifestou fortes potencialidades comerciais nas fases 2,4 e 6. Esta força ficou reduzida no século XVI devido a uma combinação de factores: As ligações com o ocidente desde o período de Husain Shahi e continuadas nos tempos dos Mongóis, as ligações riverinas oesteleste dos séculos XVI –XVIII, o declínio do comércio oriental, a retirada chinesa, a queda do Aração e o declínio do comércio português no Golfo de Bengala.

Systems thinking: learning or driving?

The ability to foresee how behaviour of a system arises from the interaction of its components over time - i.e. its dynamic complexity – is seen an important ability to take effective decisions in our turbulent world. Dynamic complexity emerges frequently from interrelated simple structures, such as stocks and flows, feedbacks and delays (Forrester, 1961). Common sense assumes an intuitive understanding of their dynamic behaviour. However, recent researches have pointed to a persistent and systematic error in people understanding of those building blocks of complex systems. This paper describes an empirical study concerning the native ability to understand systems thinking concepts. Two different groups - one, academic, the other, professional – submitted to four tasks, proposed by Sweeney and Sterman (2000) and Sterman (2002). The results confirm a poor intuitive understanding of the basic systems concepts, even when subjects have background in mathematics and sciences.

Systems thinking: learning or driving?

The ability to foresee how behaviour of a system arises from the interaction of its components over time - i.e. its dynamic complexity – is seen an important ability to take effective decisions in our turbulent world. Dynamic complexity emerges frequently from interrelated simple structures, such as stocks and flows, feedbacks and delays (Forrester, 1961). Common sense assumes an intuitive understanding of their dynamic behaviour. However, recent researches have pointed to a persistent and systematic error in people understanding of those building blocks of complex systems. This paper describes an empirical study concerning the native ability to understand systems thinking concepts. Two different groups - one, academic, the other, professional – submitted to four tasks, proposed by Sweeney and Sterman (2000) and Sterman (2002). The results confirm a poor intuitive understanding of the basic systems concepts, even when subjects have background in mathematics and sciences.