Systems thinking: learning or driving?

The ability to foresee how behaviour of a system arises from the interaction of its components over time - i.e. its dynamic complexity – is seen an important ability to take effective decisions in our turbulent world. Dynamic complexity emerges frequently from interrelated simple structures, such as stocks and flows, feedbacks and delays (Forrester, 1961). Common sense assumes an intuitive understanding of their dynamic behaviour. However, recent researches have pointed to a persistent and systematic error in people understanding of those building blocks of complex systems. This paper describes an empirical study concerning the native ability to understand systems thinking concepts. Two different groups - one, academic, the other, professional – submitted to four tasks, proposed by Sweeney and Sterman (2000) and Sterman (2002). The results confirm a poor intuitive understanding of the basic systems concepts, even when subjects have background in mathematics and sciences.

A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and management performance. We explore, under controlled conditions, the role of mental models in terms of structure and behaviour. A test based on a simulation experiment with a system dynamics model was performed. Three out of the four hypotheses were confirmed. Causal diagramming positively influences mental model structure similarity, mental model structure similarity positively influences mental model behaviour similarity, and mental model behaviour similarity positively influences the quality of the decision.

Systems thinking: learning or driving?

The ability to foresee how behaviour of a system arises from the interaction of its components over time - i.e. its dynamic complexity – is seen an important ability to take effective decisions in our turbulent world. Dynamic complexity emerges frequently from interrelated simple structures, such as stocks and flows, feedbacks and delays (Forrester, 1961). Common sense assumes an intuitive understanding of their dynamic behaviour. However, recent researches have pointed to a persistent and systematic error in people understanding of those building blocks of complex systems. This paper describes an empirical study concerning the native ability to understand systems thinking concepts. Two different groups - one, academic, the other, professional – submitted to four tasks, proposed by Sweeney and Sterman (2000) and Sterman (2002). The results confirm a poor intuitive understanding of the basic systems concepts, even when subjects have background in mathematics and sciences.

A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and management performance. We explore, under controlled conditions, the role of mental models in terms of structure and behaviour. A test based on a simulation experiment with a system dynamics model was performed. Three out of the four hypotheses were confirmed. Causal diagramming positively influences mental model structure similarity, mental model structure similarity positively influences mental model behaviour similarity, and mental model behaviour similarity positively influences the quality of the decision

Imagem percebida de Lisboa como destino turístico por parte do mercado finlandês

RESUMO: O presente estudo pretende analisar a imagem percebida de Lisboa como destino turístico por parte do mercado finlandês, considerando as seguintes perguntas de partida: a) quais os elementos que caracterizam a imagem percebida de Lisboa como destino turístico por parte dos turistas finlandeses; b) quais os factores com maior predominância na imagem percebida e c) qual o perfil do turista finlandês que visita Lisboa. Para atingir os objectivos deste estudo, foi realizado um inquérito por questionário a turistas finlandeses em Lisboa, de forma autoministrada, nos meses de Maio, Junho, Setembro e Outubro de 2008, no último dia da sua estada. Para além de questões que visaram compreender a imagem percebida de Lisboa como destino turístico, por parte dos inquiridos, o questionário incluiu perguntas sobre as suas características sócio-demográficas. Os resultados confirmaram as três componentes da imagem propostas no modelo de Echtner e Ritchie: psicológica-funcional, atributos-holística e comum-única. Os mesmos permitem também concluir que os inquiridos valorizam principalmente as características históricas e estéticas da cidade, como também o bom clima e a simpatia da população local. Por sua vez, os aspectos relativos à programação, eventos, diversão nocturna, interacção com a população local e preços, são os factores menos associados à cidade pelos inquiridos. As qualidades e as características únicas de Lisboa foram destacadas, tendo-se também verificado um elevado grau de satisfação com a visita à cidade e um vasto leque de sugestões dos inquiridos para melhorar Lisboa como destino turístico. ABSTRACT: This study aims to analyze the perceived image of Lisbon as a tourist destination by the Finnish market, considering the following questions: a) what are the elements that characterize the perceived image of Lisbon as a tourist destination by Finnish tourists b ) what features/attributes are most predominant in the perceived image c) what is the sociodemographic profile of the Finnish tourist who visits Lisbon. Data was collected in May, June September and October 2008. The questions were used seeking to identify the image of Lisbon of the respondents as a tourist destination, as well as the socio-demographic characteristics of the tourists. The results identified the three components of the image model proposed by Ritchie and Echtner: psychological-functional, attributes-holistic and commonunique. The results also allowed to conclude that respondents identify and value particularly historical and aesthetic characteristics, as well as the good weather and the friendliness of the local people whereas factors of the city such as the events, the nightlife, the interaction with the local population and the price level, didn’t particularly convinced the respondents. The qualities and the unique characteristics of Lisbon were highlighted, having also noticed a high degree of satisfaction on the visit to the city and a wide range of suggestions obtained from respondents to improve Lisbon as a tourist destination. TIIVISTELMÄ: Perehdyin tutkielmassani suomalaisten kokemusperäiseen mielikuvaan Lissabonista matkakohteena. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää, millaisia kokemuksia ja mielikuvia suomalaisilla matkailijoilla on Lissabonista matkakohteena. Tutkimus pyrki vastaamaan kolmeen kysymykseen: a) mitkä tekijät luonnehtivat suomalaisten matkailijoiden kokemusperäistä mielikuvaa Lissabonista matkakohteena, b) mitkä ominaisuudet hallitsevat kyseistä mielikuvaa sekä c) mihin sukupuoli-, ikä-, koulutus- ja yhteiskuntaluokkaan Lissabonissa vierailevat suomalaiset matkailijat kuuluivat. Tiedot kerättiin touko-, kesä-, syys- ja lokakuussa 2008. Kyselyssä keskityttiin pääosin matkailijoiden kokemuksiin ja mielikuviin Lissabonista sekä matkan ominaisuuksiin ja matkailijoiden matkakohdetta koskeviin tietoihin. Lisäksi matkailijoita pyydettiin kirjoittamaan, miten Lissabonin asemaa matkakohteena voitaisiin parantaa. Alkuperäisen olettamuksen mukaan tulokset osoittivat Echtnerin ja Richien ehdottaman mallin mukaisesti mielikuvien muodostuvan kolmesta osatekijästä: toiminnallinen-psykologinen, attribuutti-kokonaisvaltainen ja yleinenainutlaatuinen. Tulokset osoittivat vastaajien yhtyvän mielikuvissaan ensisijaisesti kaupungin toiminnallisiin osatekijöihin. Sen sijaan kaupungin tapahtumiin ja yöelämään tai vuorovaikutukseen paikallisten kanssa taikka hintatasoon liittyviä ominaisuuksia ei koettu erityisen merkittäviksi. Vastauksista tulivat selvästi esille Lissabonin vetovoimatekijät ja ainutlaatuiset ominaisuudet matkakohteena. Lisäksi vastaukset osoittivat matkailijoiden olleen suurimmaksi osaksi erittäin tyytyväisiä vierailuunsa kaupungissa. Vastauksiin sisältyi myös useita ehdotuksia Lissabonin aseman parantamiseksi matkailukohteena.