Modeling the Diffusion of Energy Performance Contracting

The Portuguese Energy Policy considers the development of a commercially viable and competitive market for energy performance contracting (EPC) as a main mechanism to achieve the objectives of energy efficiency improvement. This paper proposes a study to investigate how to achieve widespread adoption of energy performance contracting by means of system dynamics modelling and simulation. To explore and gather insights on this question, a system dynamics model representing the system of the Portuguese EPC market at industry level will be created. The simulation of that model will provide a helpful basis for analysing and explaining the development of key variables, and accelerating learning on the managerial, organizational and political adaptation processes that foster the diffusion of EPC adoption. The first phase of this research project aims at identifying and analysing the key factors and critical cause-effect relations that drive the adoption of EPC. With this purpose, a qualitative content analysis on relevant documents was performed and a set of interviews was conducted. That data was analysed to capture the critical variables and its interrelation to formulate a preliminary representation of the system structure as stock and flow diagrams.

Profiles of digital TV adopters in the switchover context in Portugal

In order to conduct a successful transition from analogue terrestrial television to full digital terrestrial television it is essential to identify what are the most significant drivers and barriers for adoption among the impacted population. Also importantly, it is to segment the population according with their attitudes towards digital TV, their awareness about the switchover process and intention of adopting digital TV, among other relevant topics. The tradition of profiles definition based on the adoption and rejection of innovations can be traced back to Beal & Bohlen, who proposed five categories of innovation adopters based on the time of adoption, with significant differences in selected personal and social characteristics: the innovators, the early adopters, the early majority, the majority and non-adopters. Later, Rogers would propose similar categories of adopters that became the standard for years to come: the innovators, the early adopters, the early majority, the late majority and the laggards. While helpful, these traditional innovation adopters’ profiles do not totally grasp the complexities of the adoption of an innovation such as digital TV, particularly in mandatory settings. In this paper we will propose a classification of adopters of digital TV in Portugal, based on the results of one of the four empirical studies of the research project ADOPT-DTV, namely, the quantitative inquiry administered to a representative sample of the Portuguese population. The paper will be concluded with a brief discussion of results and the enumeration of the next steps of the research project.