Conditioning information in mutual fund performance evaluation: Portuguese evidence

We estimate and compare the performance of Portuguese-based mutual funds that invest in the domestic market and in the European market using unconditional and conditional models of performance evaluation. Besides applying both partial and full conditional models, we use European information variables, instead of the most common local ones, and consider stochastically detrended conditional variables in order to avoid spurious regressions. The results suggest that mutual fund managers are not able to outperform the market, presenting negative or neutral performance. The incorporation of conditioning information in performance evaluation models is supported by our findings, as it improves the explanatory power of the models and there is evidence of both time-varying betas and alphas related to the public information variables. It is also shown that the number of lags to be used in the stochastic detrending procedure is a critical choice, as it will impact the significance of the conditioning information. In addition, we observe a distance effect, since managers who invest locally seem to outperform those who invest in the European market. However, after controlling for public information, this effect is slightly reduced. Furthermore, the results suggest that survivorship bias has a small impact on performance estimates.

Measuring fund performance using multi-factor models: evidence for the Portuguese market

This paper examines the performance of Portuguese equity funds investing in the domestic and in the European Union market, using several unconditional and conditional multi-factor models. In terms of overall performance, we find that National funds are neutral performers, while European Union funds under-perform the market significantly. These results do not seem to be a consequence of management fees. Overall, our findings are supportive of the robustness of conditional multi-factor models. In fact, Portuguese equity funds seem to be relatively more exposed to smallcaps and more value-oriented. Also, they present strong evidence of time-varying betas and, in the case of the European Union funds, of time-varying alphas too. Finally, in terms of market timing, our tests suggest that mutual fund managers in our sample do not exhibit any market timing abilities. Nevertheless, we find some evidence of timevarying conditional market timing abilities but only at the individual fund level.

Vinte anos: parabéns IPCA!

art. 73º da Constituição quanto aos fins do conhecimento: “2. O Estado promove a democratização da educação e as demais condições para que a educação, realizada através da escola e de outros meios formativos, contribua para a igualdade de oportunidades, a superação das desigualdades económicas, sociais e culturais, o desenvolvimento da personalidade e do espírito de tolerância, de compreensão mútua, de solidariedade e de responsabilidade, para o progresso social e para a participação democrática na vida colectiva.” § Abstract: art. 73 of the Constitution as to the purposes of knowledge: "2. The State shall promote the democratization of education and the other conditions that enable education, both at school and elsewhere, to contribute to equality of opportunities, overcoming the economic, social and cultural inequalities, the development of personality and spirit tolerance, mutual understanding, solidarity and responsibility, to social progress and to democratic participation in public life. ".