Comparative analysis between statistical and artificial intelligence models in business failure prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Relationships between NPM, the use of PM practices and the organizational performance: empirical evidence from government agencies

Purpose – this paper has two main purposes: (1)explore if government agencies more oriented to NPM postulates are more willing to use PM practices and to improve their performance; and (2) investigate whether the fit between the use of PM practices and the organizationa performance is dependent upon from the capacity of agencies to adapt its structures to changes introduced by NPM reforms. Design/methodology/approach - this paper is based on the survey method and provides empirical evidence from Portuguese government agencies.Findings (mandatory) - Our findings suggest that government agencies that made structural arrangements under the NPM reforms are more willing to use PM practices and will perform better than other agencies. In addition, this paper show that therelationship between the use of PM practices and the organizational performance is dependent upon from the agencies capacity to adopt new structural arrangements under the NPM reforms.Practical implications – this paper has three main contributions: (1) contribute to knowledge about the relationship between the introduction of NPM changes in the use of PM practices; (2) contribute to clarify whether agencies more oriented to NPM postulates are improving performance; and (3) help to clarify the way the organizations should adapt their structures for to be more effective in the use of PM practices. Originality/value - The quantitative empirical research, based on the unique survey applied to Portuguese government agencies on this field, allow us to add to prior research mainly based on case studies and oriented to local governments (Budding, 2004).