Comparative analysis between statistical and artificial intelligence models in business failure prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Finantial risk analysis of portuguese textile and tourism companies

Textile and tourism sectors are two important industries in the Portuguese economy. However, its high exposure to both internal and international economic volatility make the companies operating in these economic sectors particularly vulnerable to economic crises, such as the ones which have been impacting Portugal and the European Union. The objective of this paper is to evaluate and understand the impact of size and age on the financial health of textile and tourism companies, measured by economic indices. An empirical based model is proposed. Its implications are derived and tested on a sample of 4061 Portuguese companies from textile and tourism sectors, during the period 2005-2009. The findings suggest that age has a major impact on the risk of failure, rather than size. Whereas the effect of age is generally positive regarding the financial health of the company, the effect of size is less clear and ultimately depends on the age of the company.

Economic analysis of occupational risk prevention: a case study in a textile company

Work accidents affect business and society as a whole. Fewer accidents mean fewer sick leaves, which results in lower costs and less disruption in the production process, with clear advantages for the employer. But workers and their households bear also a significant burden following a work accident, only partially compen-sated by insurance systems. Furthermore, the consequences of work accidents to the State and Society need also to be considered. When an organization performs an integrated risk analysis in evaluating its Occupational Health and Safety Management System, several steps are suggested to address the identified risk situations. Namely, to avoid risks, a series of preventive measures are identified. The organization should make a detailed analysis of the monetary impact (positive or negative) for the organization of each of the measures considered. Particularly, it is also important to consider the impact of each measure on society, involving an adequate eco-nomic cost-benefit analysis. In the present paper, a case study in a textile finishing company is presented. The study concentrates on the dyeing and printing sections. For each of the potential risks, several preventive measures have been identified and the corresponding costs and benefits have been estimated. Subsequently, the Benefit/Cost ratio (B/C) of these measures has been calculated, both in financial terms (from the organisa-tion’s perspective) and in economic terms (including the benefits for the worker and for the Society). Results show that, while the financial analysis in terms of the company does not justify the preventive measures, when the externalities are taken into account, the B/C ratio increases significantly and investments are fully justified.

Financial Risk Analysis of Portuguese Textile and Tourism Companies

Textile and tourism sectors are two important industries in the Portuguese economy. However, its high exposure to both internal and international economic volatility make the companies operating in these economic sectors particularly vulnerable to economic crises, such as the ones which have been impacting Portugal and the European Union. The objective of this paper is to evaluate and understand the impact of size and age on the financial health of textile and tourism companies, measured by economic indices. An empirical based model is proposed. Its implications are derived and tested on a sample of 4061 Portuguese companies from textile and tourism sectors, during the period 2005-2009. The findings suggest that age has a major impact on the risk of failure, rather than size. Whereas the effect of age is generally positive regarding the financial health of the company, the effect of size is less clear and ultimately depends on the age of the company.

Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Financial Risk Analysis of Portuguese Textile and Tourism Companies

Textile and tourism sectors are two important industries in the Portuguese economy. However, its high exposure to both internal and international economic volatility make the companies operating in these economic sectors particularly vulnerable to economic crises, such as the ones which have been impacting Portugal and the European Union. The objective of this paper is to evaluate and understand the impact of size and age on the financial health of textile and tourism companies, measured by economic indices. An empirical based model is proposed. Its implications are derived and tested on a sample of 4061 Portuguese companies from textile and tourism sectors, during the period 2005-2009. The findings suggest that age has a major impact on the risk of failure, rather than size. Whereas the effect of age is generally positive regarding the financial health of the company, the effect of size is less clear and ultimately depends on the age of the company.

Integrating environmental and economic life cycle analysis in product development: a material selection case study

Purpose Achieving sustainability by rethinking products, services and strategies is an enormous challenge currently laid upon the economic sector, in which materials selection plays a critical role. In this context, the present work describes an environmental and economic life cycle analysis of a structural product, comparing two possible material alternatives. The product chosen is a storage tank, presently manufactured in stainless steel (SST) or in a glass fibre reinforced polymer composite (CST). The overall goal of the study is to identify environmental and economic strong and weak points related to the life cycle of the two material alternatives. The consequential win-win or trade-off situations will be identified via a Life Cycle Assessment/Life Cycle Costing (LCA/LCC) integrated model. Methods The LCA/LCC integrated model used consists in applying the LCA methodology to the product system, incorporating, in parallel, its results into the LCC study, namely those of the Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA). Results In both the SST and CST systems the most significant life cycle phase is the raw materials production, in which the most significant environmental burdens correspond to the Fossil fuels and Respiratory inorganics categories. The LCA/LCC integrated analysis shows that the CST has globally a preferable environmental and economic profile, as its impacts are lower than those of the SST in all life cycle stages. Both the internal and external costs are lower, the former resulting mainly from the composite material being significantly less expensive than stainless steel. This therefore represents a full win-win situation. As a consequence, the study clearly indicates that using a thermoset composite material to manufacture storage tanks is environmentally and economically desirable. However, it was also evident that the environmental performance of the CST could be improved by altering its End-of-Life stage. Conclusions The results of the present work provide enlightening insights into the synergies between the environmental and the economic performance of a structural product made with alternative materials. Further, they provide conclusive evidence to support the integration of environmental and economic life cycle analysis in the product development processes of a manufacturing company, or in some cases even in its procurement practices.

Effect of the Impact Conditions on the Mechanical Properties of Injection-Molded Parts

This work focused on the study of the impact event on molded parts in the framework of automotive components. The influence of the impact conditions and processing parameters on the mechanical behavior of talc-filled polypropylene specimens was analyzed. The specimens were lateral-gate discs produced by injection molding, and the mechanical characterization was performed through instrumented falling weight impact tests concomitantly assisted with high-speed videography. Results analyzed using the analysis of variance (ANOVA) method have shown that from the considered parameters, only the dart diameter and test temperature have significant influence on the falling weight impact properties. Higher dart diameter leads to higher peak force and peak energy results. Conversely, higher levels of test temperatures lead to lower values of peak force and peak energy. By means of high-speed videography, a more brittle fracture was observed for experiments with higher levels of test velocity and dart diameter and lower levels of test temperature. The injection-molding process conditions assessed in this study have an influence on the impact response of moldings, mainly on the deformation capabilities of the moldings.

Accessing movies based on emotional impact

Emotions play a central role in our daily lives, influencing the way we think and act, our health and sense of well-being, and films are by excellence the form of art that exploits our affective, perceptual and intellectual activity, holding the potential for a significant impact. Video is becoming a dominant and pervasive medium, and online video a growing entertainment activity on the web and iTV, mainly due to technological developments and the trends for media convergence. In addition, the improvement of new techniques for gathering emotional information about videos, both through content analysis or user implicit feedback through user physiological signals complemented in manual labeling from users, is revealing new ways for exploring emotional information in videos, films or TV series, and brings out new perspectives to enrich and personalize video access. In this work, we reflect on the power that emotions have in our lives, on the emotional impact of movies, and on how to address this emotional dimension in the way we classify and access movies, by exploring and evaluating the design of iFelt in its different ways to classify, access, browse and visualize movies based on their emotional impac

On the discovery of business processes orchestration patterns

COORDINSPECTOR is a Software Tool aiming at extracting the coordination layer of a software system. Such a reverse engineering process provides a clear view of the actually invoked services as well as the logic behind such invocations. The analysis process is based on program slicing techniques and the generation of, System Dependence Graphs and Coordination Dependence Graphs. The tool analyzes Common Intermediate Language (CIL), the native language of the Microsoft .Net Framework, thus making suitable for processing systems developed in any .Net Framework compilable language. COORDINSPECTOR generates graphical representations of the coordination layer together with business process orchestrations specified in WSBPEL 2.0

Finite element analysis of pectus carinatum surgical correction via a minimally invasive approach

Pectus carinatum (PC) is a chest deformity caused by a disproportionate growth of the costal cartilages compared to the bony thoracic skeleton, pulling the sternum towards, which leads to its protrusion. There has been a growing interest on using the ‘reversed Nuss’ technique as minimally invasive procedure for PC surgical correction. A corrective bar is introduced between the skin and the thoracic cage and positioned on top of the sternum highest protrusion area for continuous pressure. Then, it is fixed to the ribs and kept implanted for about 2–3 years. The purpose of this work was to (a) assess the stresses distribution on the thoracic cage that arise from the procedure, and (b) investigate the impact of different positioning of the corrective bar along the sternum. The higher stresses were generated on the 4th, 5th and 6th ribs backend, supporting the hypothesis of pectus deformities correction-induced scoliosis. The different bar positioning originated different stresses on the ribs’ backend. The bar position that led to lower stresses generated on the ribs backend was the one that also led to the smallest sternum displacement. However, this may be preferred, as the risk of induced scoliosis is lowered.

Capital Intelectual: sua divulgação no setor bancário em Portugal

The importance of intangible resources has increased dramatically in recent years comparing to tangible ones. The economy in which we live is the result of competitive pressures that have imposed the implementation of business at an international level as well as a requirement in the application of sophisticated technologies that allow us to follow this fast evolution. In this age of information and innovation organizations will only survive if they are inserted in a global network of strategic relations, generically called as the network economy by Lev (2003). The service sector has stood out against the more traditional sectors of the economy. The intensive use of knowledge and a strong customer orientation created a new reality in today’s organizations: a growing importance attached to innovation, to the quality of products and services offered, to the information and communication technologies adopted, and to the creativity and particular abilities of human resources. The concept of intangible assets is more common in an accounting language and intellectual capital is most often applied in the context of management, being associated with a more comprehensive, multidimensional approach, representing all the knowledge that the institution owns and that it applies in the form of expertise, the creativity and organizational competencies that lead to innovation and to the sustained attainment of future economic benefits. An analysis of the scope of intellectual capital is fundamental to take more appropriate management decisions so that a more appropriate accounting treatment could be given by the accounting standardization organizations. This study intends to analyse the practices of information disclosure of the intellectual capital in the banking sector in Portugal, complementing the analysis of the disclosure of intangible assets in the context of accounting standards with the disclosure of intellectual capital in the context of organizational management. In particular, our main aims are to identify the extent of disclosure of intellectual capital made by banks in Portugal and also to identify the factors that determine such a disclosure. The disclosure in the context of accounting standards will be studied by checking the disclosure of intangible assets through the items listed in the International Accounting Standard 38 developed by the International Accounting Standards Board. The context of management was analysed by means of creating a voluntary disclosure index based on assumptions of the model Intellectus, developed by the Centro de Investigación sobre la Sociedad del Conocimiento – Instituto de Administración de Empresas (CIC-IADE) of the Universidad Autónoma of Madrid, and of the model Intellectual Capital Statement (made in Europe) (InCaS), both promoted by the European Commission and that we have adapted to the banking sector. When analysing the disclosure of intangible assets based on the context of accounting standards and the voluntary disclosure of intellectual capital, this study has tried to raise awareness about the importance of issuing reports on the intellectual capital as an alternative tool to take management decisions in the existing organizations and reflects the transparency and legitimacy that these institutions seek through a more extensive and more detailed information disclosure of their intellectual capital. Based on a complimentarily of economic theories, together with social and political theories, we tried to check the extent, evolution and tendencies of the compulsory disclosure of intangible assets and of the voluntary disclosure of the intellectual capital analysed in the period 2001-2011. Banks characteristics were also analysed in order to deduce those factors that determine or promote a larger disclosure in this sector. Based on these objectives, we adopted a longitudinal approach to explore the extent and the development of the disclosure of intangible assets as well as the factors that have determined it. Furthermore, we sought to assess the impact of the adoption of IAS 38 in the financial statements of the organizations in this sector. The disclosure index created on the basis of the disclosure requirements stated in IAS 38 from IASB was applied to the consolidated financial statements of the seventeen banks that rendered their statements in Portugal from 2001 to 2009. Since the information disclosed in the context of accounting standards may not have an important role as a management tool once it was not able to reflect what really contributes to the competitiveness and organizational growth, the voluntary disclosure of the intellectual capital was analysed according to the information obtained from the 2010 annual individual reports of the banks operating in Portugal in that year and from their respective websites in 2011. We tried to analyse the extent of the voluntary disclosure of the intellectual capital and of each of its components, human capital, structural capital and relational capital. The comparative analysis of their annual reports and their web pages allowed us to assess the incidence of the disclosure and discover what channel the banking sector focuses on when disclosing their intellectual capital. Also in this analysis the study of the disclosure determinants has allowed us to conclude about the influence of particular characteristics in the voluntary disclosure of the intellectual capital. The results of the analysis to the extent of the disclosure of intangible assets in the consolidated financial statements of the banking groups in Portugal in the period 2001-2009 have shown an average information disclosure of 0.24. This information disclosure evolved from an average value of 0.1940 in 2001 to 0.2778 in 2009. The average value is 0.8286 if it is only considered the disclosure of the intangible assets that the banks possessed. The evolution of this index means an increase in the average disclosure from 0.7852 in 2001 to 0.8788 in 2009. From the first results that are related to the extent of the disclosure of intangible assets in the financial statements, we can verify that the banking groups present a low disclosure level of these resources. However, when considering the disclosure of only the intangible assets that each institution owns, the disclosure level appears to be in compliance with the disclosure requirements for this sector. An evolution in the disclosure of intangible assets for the period considered was confirmed, showing an increase in the information disclosure of intangible assets in 2005, the year in which the accounting rules for intangible assets changed. The analysis that focused on the disclosure in the context of management tried to understand the extent, the incidence and the determinants of the voluntary information disclosure of intellectual capital in the annual reports of 2010 and on their web pages in 2011, studying the 32 banks operating in Portugal in this period. The average voluntary disclosure of the intellectual capital in the 2010 annual reports is 0.4342 while that in web pages is 0.2907. A review of the components of the intellectual capital allowed us to assess the importance that the banks confer to each of these components. The data obtained show that the relational capital, and more specifically the business capital, is the most disclosed component by banks in Portugal both in the annual reports and in their institutional web pages, followed by the structural capital and, finally, by the human capital. The disclosure of the human capital and the structural capital is higher in the annual reports than that in the websites, while the relational capital is more disclosed in the websites than in the annual reports. The results have also shown that the banks make a complementary use of both sources when disclosing information about their structural capital and relational capital but they do not show any information about their human capital in their websites. We tried to prove the influence of factors that could determine the accounting disclosure and the voluntary disclosure of the intellectual capital in this sector. The change in the IASB accounting rules as from January 1st 2005 gave a greater disclosure of accounting information of intangible assets in the financial statements of banks. The bank size and corporate governance measures have statistically proved to have an influence on the extent of the accounting disclosure of intangible assets and on the voluntary disclosure of the intellectual capital. Economic and financial variables such as profitability, operating efficiency or solvency were not determinants of information disclosure. The instability that the banking sector has experienced in economic and financial indicators in recent years as a result of the global financial markets imbalance has worsen indicators such as profitability, efficiency and solvency and caused major discrepancies in the economic situation between banks in Portugal. This empirical analysis has contributed to confront the disclosure required by accounting rules performed in the financial statements of organizations with that performed in the main disclosure media which is available for entities and which is increasingly requested in the process of taking management decisions. It also allowed us to verify whether there is homogeneity between institutions in the fulfilment of the requirements for information disclosure of intangible assets. However, as for voluntary disclosure of intellectual capital, there are large disparities in the disclosure extent between organizations. Regardless of this sector specific characteristics, the voluntary disclosure of intellectual capital made by banks in Portugal follows the trends in other sectors and the practices adopted in other countries, namely regarding the amount of information disclosed, the incidence of the disclosure on the indicators of relational capital and the importance of variables such as size as determinants of disclosure of intellectual capital. For a further knowledge in this field, we created a specific index for the banking sector, considering appropriate indicators for an incisive, comprehensive analysis in order to consider the most relevant indicators of intellectual capital components. Besides, confronting the analysis of disclosure in the context of accounting standards with the study of voluntary disclosure brought a new analysis approach to the research on intellectual capital disclosure. With this study, we have also intended to raise greater awareness of the need for harmonization in the intellectual capital disclosure on the part of the regulatory banking authority by means of a demanding, consistent and transparent report of intellectual capital with simple, clear, objective indicators so that those interested in disclosing intellectual capital information in the organizations in this sector may obtain more harmonized and comparable information. A research on the disclosure quality of intellectual capital, together with the application of other analysis methodologies in this sector, might be a promising approach for future research. Applying the voluntary disclosure index to the same sector in other countries may also contribute to the knowledge of disclosure practices in different geographical environments. We highlight the relevance of further studies contributing to the harmonization and consistency in the presentation of an intellectual capital report so as to enable organizations to disclose the resources that contribute most to their competitiveness and growth.

The impact of size and age of the company on assessing financial risk

Textiles and tourism sectors are two important sectors in Portuguese economy. Its high exposure to both internal and international economy volatility transform the companies operating in these economic sectors especially vulnerable to recent economic crises in Portugal and European Union. The objective of this paper is to evaluate and understand the impact of size and age on the financial health of textile and tourism companies, measured by economic indices. An empirical based model is proposed. Its implications are derived and tested on a sample of 4061 Portuguese companies from textile and tourism sector, during the period 2005-2009. The results conclude that age has a stronger impact on the risk of failure than size. Whereas the effect of age is generally positive regarding the financial health of the company, the effect of size is less clear and depends on the age of the company.

Analysis of the return on preventive measures in musculoskeletal disorders through the benefitecost ratio: A case study in a hospital

Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) are among the most costly health problems that society is facing today. Prevention involves investments and it is important for organizations to make a cost ebenefit analysis of ergonomic projects. Return on prevention is a recent concern in the domain of occupational safety and health (OSH). There are many studies concerning the return on the prevention of WMSDs, in terms of the benefits for the organization in which the preventive measures are implemented. However, it is also important to perform an analysis of the impact of each measure on society (externalities). A model to perform a financial and economic costebenefit analysis related to OSH projects was developed and it was applied in the case of the prevention of WMSDs in a Portuguese hospital. An analysis of the accidents and corresponding costs has been made in six of the services of the hospital. Financial and an economic costebenefit analysis have been made and the benefitecost ratio (B/C) has been calculated. While the B/C financial ratio, considering only the benefits to the hospital, is around 2, the economic B/C ratio, taking into account all the external benefits that have been quantified, is higher than 14. Relevance to industry: Both the economic and the financial B/C ratio are important support tools for decision makers in public and private organizations, helping them to define which preventive measures should be implemented, taking into account the costs involved and the resulting quantified benefits, for the organization, for the workers and for the society.

The impact of size and age of the company on assessing financial risk.

Textiles and tourism sectors are two important sectors in Portuguese economy. Its high exposure to both internal and international economy volatility transform the companies operating in these economic sectors especially vulnerable to recent economic crises in Portugal and European Union. The objective of this paper is to evaluate and understand the impact of size and age on the financial health of textile and tourism companies, measured by economic indices. An empirical based model is proposed. Its implications are derived and tested on a sample of 4061 Portuguese companies from textile and tourism sector, during the period 2005-2009. The results conclude that age has a stronger impact on the risk of failure than size. Whereas the effect of age is generally positive regarding the financial health of the company, the effect of size is less clear and depends on the age of the company.