Comparative analysis between statistical and artificial intelligence models in business failure prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Motivations to visit and image destination of Guimarães: differences between Portuguese and foreign tourists during 2012 Guimarães European Capital of Culture (ECOC)

Guimarães hosted the European Capital of Culture (ECOC) during the year of 2012. This study investigates the differences between Portuguese and foreign tourists regarding the main motivations to visit Guimarães and the retained perceived image of the destination. To achieve that purpose a survey was administered to 390 tourists that visited the city during the cultural event. The results show that tourists who visited Guimarães are relatively young, wealthy, employed and well educated. They are touring around the northern part of the country which includes an itinerary beginning in Porto, and extended to other important neighboring cities such as Braga or Viana do Castelo. The main motivations to visit the city, for both Portuguese and foreign tourists, are its historical heritage and the title of ECOC, the associated cultural events and celebrations that take place during 2012. However, these items were more valued by foreigners than Portuguese tourists. Using a factor analysis the tourists’ perceived attributes of Guimarães were described in four dimensions: “material heritage”, “intangible heritage”, “cultural performance”, and “sport and education”. Although foreigners and nationals perceived the tourism attributes of the city differently, the comparison of the mean scores of the four factors across Portuguese and foreigner tourists reveals that the most valued and least valued factors are common to both groups.

An image processing application for quantification of protein aggregates in Caenorhabditis elegans

Protein aggregation became a widely accepted marker of many polyQ disorders, including Machado-Joseph disease (MJD), and is often used as readout for disease progression and development of therapeutic strategies. The lack of good platforms to rapidly quantify protein aggregates in a wide range of disease animal models prompted us to generate a novel image processing application that automatically identifies and quantifies the aggregates in a standardized and operator-independent manner. We propose here a novel image processing tool to quantify the protein aggregates in a Caenorhabditis elegans (C. elegans) model of MJD. Confocal mi-croscopy images were obtained from animals of different genetic conditions. The image processing application was developed using MeVisLab as a platform to pro-cess, analyse and visualize the images obtained from those animals. All segmenta-tion algorithms were based on intensity pixel levels.The quantification of area or numbers of aggregates per total body area, as well as the number of aggregates per animal were shown to be reliable and reproducible measures of protein aggrega-tion in C. elegans. The results obtained were consistent with the levels of aggrega-tion observed in the images. In conclusion, this novel imaging processing applica-tion allows the non-biased, reliable and high throughput quantification of protein aggregates in a C. elegans model of MJD, which may contribute to a significant improvement on the prognosis of treatment effectiveness for this group of disor-ders

Automatic segmentation and 3D feature extraction of protein aggregates in Caenorhabditis Elegans

In the last years, it has become increasingly clear that neurodegenerative diseases involve protein aggregation, a process often used as disease progression readout and to develop therapeutic strategies. This work presents an image processing tool to automatic segment, classify and quantify these aggregates and the whole 3D body of the nematode Caenorhabditis Elegans. A total of 150 data set images, containing different slices, were captured with a confocal microscope from animals of distinct genetic conditions. Because of the animals’ transparency, most of the slices pixels appeared dark, hampering their body volume direct reconstruction. Therefore, for each data set, all slices were stacked in one single 2D image in order to determine a volume approximation. The gradient of this image was input to an anisotropic diffusion algorithm that uses the Tukey’s biweight as edge-stopping function. The image histogram median of this outcome was used to dynamically determine a thresholding level, which allows the determination of a smoothed exterior contour of the worm and the medial axis of the worm body from thinning its skeleton. Based on this exterior contour diameter and the medial animal axis, random 3D points were then calculated to produce a volume mesh approximation. The protein aggregations were subsequently segmented based on an iso-value and blended with the resulting volume mesh. The results obtained were consistent with qualitative observations in literature, allowing non-biased, reliable and high throughput protein aggregates quantification. This may lead to a significant improvement on neurodegenerative diseases treatment planning and interventions prevention

Color Models and Illumination Changes

Color model representation allows characterizing in a quantitative manner, any defined color spectrum of visible light, i.e. with a wavelength between 400nm and 700nm. To accomplish that, each model, or color space, is associated with a function that allows mapping the spectral power distribution of the visible electromagnetic radiation, in a space defined by a set of discrete values that quantify the color components composing the model. Some color spaces are sensitive to changes in lighting conditions. Others assure the preservation of certain chromatic features, remaining immune to these changes. Therefore, it becomes necessary to identify the strengths and weaknesses of each model in order to justify the adoption of color spaces in image processing and analysis techniques. This chapter will address the topic of digital imaging, main standards and formats. Next we will set the mathematical model of the image acquisition sensor response, which enables assessment of the various color spaces, with the aim of determining their invariance to illumination changes.

Automatic modeling of pectus excavatum corrective prosthesis using artificial neural networks

Pectus excavatum is the most common deformity of the thorax. Pre-operative diagnosis usually includes Computed Tomography (CT) to successfully employ a thoracic prosthesis for anterior chest wall remodeling. Aiming at the elimination of radiation exposure, this paper presents a novel methodology for the replacement of CT by a 3D laser scanner (radiation-free) for prosthesis modeling. The complete elimination of CT is based on an accurate determination of ribs position and prosthesis placement region through skin surface points. The developed solution resorts to a normalized and combined outcome of an artificial neural network (ANN) set. Each ANN model was trained with data vectors from 165 male patients and using soft tissue thicknesses (STT) comprising information from the skin and rib cage (automatically determined by image processing algorithms). Tests revealed that ribs position for prosthesis placement and modeling can be estimated with an average error of 5.0 ± 3.6 mm. One also showed that the ANN performance can be improved by introducing a manually determined initial STT value in the ANN normalization procedure (average error of 2.82 ± 0.76 mm). Such error range is well below current prosthesis manual modeling (approximately 11 mm), which can provide a valuable and radiation-free procedure for prosthesis personalization.

Automatic modeling of pectus excavatum corrective prosthesis using artificial neural networks

Pectus excavatum is the most common deformity of the thorax. Pre-operative diagnosis usually includes Computed Tomography (CT) to successfully employ a thoracic prosthesis for anterior chest wall remodeling. Aiming at the elimination of radiation exposure, this paper presents a novel methodology for the replacement of CT by a 3D laser scanner (radiation-free) for prosthesis modeling. The complete elimination of CT is based on an accurate determination of ribs position and prosthesis placement region through skin surface points. The developed solution resorts to a normalized and combined outcome of an artificial neural network (ANN) set. Each ANN model was trained with data vectors from 165 male patients and using soft tissue thicknesses (STT) comprising information from the skin and rib cage (automatically determined by image processing algorithms). Tests revealed that ribs position for prosthesis placement and modeling can be estimated with an average error of 5.0 ± 3.6 mm. One also showed that the ANN performance can be improved by introducing a manually determined initial STT value in the ANN normalization procedure (average error of 2.82 ± 0.76 mm). Such error range is well below current prosthesis manual modeling (approximately 11 mm), which can provide a valuable and radiation-free procedure for prosthesis personalization.

Artificial neural networks for automatic modelling of the pectus excavatum corrective prosthesis

Pectus excavatum is the most common deformity of the thorax and usually comprises Computed Tomography (CT) examination for pre-operative diagnosis. Aiming at the elimination of the high amounts of CT radiation exposure, this work presents a new methodology for the replacement of CT by a laser scanner (radiation-free) in the treatment of pectus excavatum using personally modeled prosthesis. The complete elimination of CT involves the determination of ribs external outline, at the maximum sternum depression point for prosthesis placement, based on chest wall skin surface information, acquired by a laser scanner. The developed solution resorts to artificial neural networks trained with data vectors from 165 patients. Scaled Conjugate Gradient, Levenberg-Marquardt, Resilient Back propagation and One Step Secant gradient learning algorithms were used. The training procedure was performed using the soft tissue thicknesses, determined using image processing techniques that automatically segment the skin and rib cage. The developed solution was then used to determine the ribs outline in data from 20 patient scanners. Tests revealed that ribs position can be estimated with an average error of about 6.82±5.7 mm for the left and right side of the patient. Such an error range is well below current prosthesis manual modeling (11.7±4.01 mm) even without CT imagiology, indicating a considerable step forward towards CT replacement by a 3D scanner for prosthesis personalization.