Risk-based decision making method for maintenance policy selection of thermal power plant equipment

This study presents a decision-making method for maintenance policy selection of power plants equipment. The method is based on risk analysis concepts. The method first step consists in identifying critical equipment both for power plant operational performance and availability based on risk concepts. The second step involves the proposal of a potential maintenance policy that could be applied to critical equipment in order to increase its availability. The costs associated with each potential maintenance policy must be estimated, including the maintenance costs and the cost of failure that measures the critical equipment failure consequences for the power plant operation. Once the failure probabilities and the costs of failures are estimated, a decision-making procedure is applied to select the best maintenance policy. The decision criterion is to minimize the equipment cost of failure, considering the costs and likelihood of occurrence of failure scenarios. The method is applied to the analysis of a lubrication oil system used in gas turbines journal bearings. The turbine has more than 150 MW nominal output, installed in an open cycle thermoelectric power plant. A design modification with the installation of a redundant oil pump is proposed for lubricating oil system availability improvement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Number of options in a movement sequence affects learners' behavior in a self-controlled practice condition

Self controlling practice implies a process of decision making which suggests that the options in a self controlled practice condition could affect learners The number of task components with no fixed position in a movement sequence may affect the (Nay learners self control their practice A 200 cm coincident timing track with 90 light emitting diodes (LEDs)-the first and the last LEDs being the warning and the target lights respectively was set so that the apparent speed of the light along the track was 1 33 m/sec Participants were required to touch six sensors sequentially the last one coincidently with the lighting of the tar get light (timing task) Group 1 (n=55) had only one constraint and were instructed to touch the sensors in any order except for the last sensor which had to be the one positioned close to the target light Group 2 (n=53) had three constraints the first two and the last sensor to be touched Both groups practiced the task until timing error was less than 30 msec on three consecutive trials There were no statistically significant differences between groups in the number of trials needed to reach the performance criterion but (a) participants in Group 2 created fewer sequences corn pared to Group 1 and (b) were more likely to use the same sequence throughout the learning process The number of options for a movement sequence affected the way learners self-controlled their practice but had no effect on the amount of practice to reach criterion performance.

Decision-Making Deficits Linked to Real-life Social Dysfunction in Crack Cocaine-Dependent Individuals

Crack cocaine-dependent individuals (CCDI) present abnormalities in both social adjustment and decision making, but few studies have examined this association. This study investigated cognitive and social performance of 30 subjects (CCDI x controls); CCDI were abstinent for 2 weeks. We used the Social Adjustment Scale (SAS), Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST), and Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). Disadvantageous choices on the IGT were associated with higher levels of social dysfunction in CCDI, suggesting the ecological validity of the IGT. Social dysfunction and decision making may be linked to the same underlying prefrontal dysfunction, but the nature of this association should be further investigated. (Am J Addict 2010;00: 1-9).

Clinical Validity of the Protocol for Multi-Professional Centers for the Determination of Signs and Symptoms of Temporomandibular Disorders. Part II

The aims of this study were to analyze the criterion and construct validity of Part II of the protocol for multi-professional centers for the determination of signs and symptoms of temporomandibular disorders (ProTMDMulti) as a measure of TMD severity. The study was conducted on eight asymptomatic subjects (CG) and 30 subjects with articular TMD (TMDG), according to the Research Diagnostic Criteria for TMD (RDC/TMD). The ProTMDMulti-Part II was validated using the Helkimo Clinical Dysfunction Index (Di). The construct validity was tested using the analysis of the ability of ProTMDMulti-part II to differentiate the CG from the TMDG and to measure the changes that occurred in the TMDG between the period before and after TMD treatment. Correlations between the Di and the ProTMDMulti-Part II scores were calculated using the Spearman test. Inter- and intragroup comparisons were made (p<0.05). There was a statistically significant correlation between the Helkimo Clinical Dysfunction Index (Di) and the severity scores of the ProTMDMulti-Part II. There was a significant difference between TMDG and CG regarding the severity of signs and symptoms. The present study provides statistical evidence of the clinical validity of the ProTMDmulti-Part II as a measure of the severity of TMD symptoms.

Reproducibility, reliability and validity of measurements obtained from Cecile3 digital models

The aim of this study was to determine the reproducibility, reliability and validity of measurements in digital models compared to plaster models. Fifteen pairs of plaster models were obtained from orthodontic patients with permanent dentition before treatment. These were digitized to be evaluated with the program Cécile3 v2.554.2 beta. Two examiners measured three times the mesiodistal width of all the teeth present, intercanine, interpremolar and intermolar distances, overjet and overbite. The plaster models were measured using a digital vernier. The t-Student test for paired samples and interclass correlation coefficient (ICC) were used for statistical analysis. The ICC of the digital models were 0.84 ± 0.15 (intra-examiner) and 0.80 ± 0.19 (inter-examiner). The average mean difference of the digital models was 0.23 ± 0.14 and 0.24 ± 0.11 for each examiner, respectively. When the two types of measurements were compared, the values obtained from the digital models were lower than those obtained from the plaster models (p < 0.05), although the differences were considered clinically insignificant (differences < 0.1 mm). The Cécile digital models are a clinically acceptable alternative for use in Orthodontics.

Assessing the validity of a food frequency questionnaire among low-income women in São Paulo, southeastern Brazil

This study describes the validity of a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) in 93 low-income women (20-65 years), participating in a case-control study in São Paulo, Brazil. Two FFQ (FFQ1 and FFQ2, 12 months apart) and three 24-hour dietary recalls (24hR) were conducted between 2003 and 2004 to estimate dietary intake during the past year. The Pearson correlation coefficients (crude, energy-adjusted and de-attenuated) were used for comparisons between FFQ and 24hR. The agreement between the methods was further examined by the Bland-Altman analysis. For the assessment of long-term reliability, the energy-adjusted intra-class correlation coefficients were mostly around 0.40, but higher for vitamin A and folate (0.50-0.56). Energy-adjusted, attenuation-corrected Pearson validity correlations between FFQ and DR ranged from 0.30-0.54 for macronutrients to 0.20-0.48 for micronutrients, with higher value for calcium (0.75). There were small proportions of grossly misclassified nutrient intakes, while Bland-Altman plots indicated that the FFQ is accurate in assessing nutrient intake at a group level.

Risk optimization of a steel frame communications tower subject to tornado winds

The structural engineering community in Brazil faces new challenges with the recent occurrence of high intensity tornados. Satellite surveillance data shows that the area covering the south-east of Brazil, Uruguay and some of Argentina is one of the world most tornado-prone areas, second only to the infamous tornado alley in central United States. The design of structures subject to tornado winds is a typical example of decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Structural design involves finding a good balance between the competing goals of safety and economy. This paper presents a methodology to find the optimum balance between these goals in the presence of uncertainty. In this paper, reliability-based risk optimization is used to find the optimal safety coefficient that minimizes the total expected cost of a steel frame communications tower, subject to extreme storm and tornado wind loads. The technique is not new, but it is applied to a practical problem of increasing interest to Brazilian structural engineers. The problem is formulated in the partial safety factor format used in current design codes, with all additional partial factor introduced to serve as optimization variable. The expected cost of failure (or risk) is defined as the product of a. limit state exceedance probability by a limit state exceedance cost. These costs include costs of repairing, rebuilding, and paying compensation for injury and loss of life. The total expected failure cost is the sum of individual expected costs over all failure modes. The steel frame communications, tower subject of this study has become very common in Brazil due to increasing mobile phone coverage. The study shows that optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the cost (or consequences) of failure. Since failure consequences depend oil actual tower location, it turn,,; out that different optimum designs should be used in different locations. Failure consequences are also different for the different parties involved in the design, construction and operation of the tower. Hence, it is important that risk is well understood by the parties involved, so that proper contracts call be made. The investigation shows that when non-structural terms dominate design costs (e.g, in residential or office buildings) it is not too costly to over-design; this observation is in agreement with the observed practice for non-optimized structural systems. In this situation, is much easier to loose money by under-design. When by under-design. When structural material cost is a significant part of design cost (e.g. concrete dam or bridge), one is likely to lose significantmoney by over-design. In this situation, a cost-risk-benefit optimization analysis is highly recommended. Finally, the study also shows that under time-varying loads like tornados, the optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the selected design life.

Information from managing information systems as a fundamental element to support decision-making in hospitals

This article deals with the activity of defining information of hospital systems as fundamental for choosing the type of information systems to be used and also the organizational level to be supported. The use of hospital managing information systems improves the user`s decision -making process by allowing control report generation and following up the procedures made in the hospital as well.

Predictive Validity of the Braden Scale for Pressure Ulcer Risk in Elderly Residents of Long-Term Care Facilities

The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive validity of the Braden Scale for Predicting Pressure Sore Risk in elderly residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs) in Brazil. The determination of the cutoff score for the Brazilian population is important for the comparison between Brazilian and international studies and establishment of guidelines for prevention of pressure ulcers in our health care facilities. This is the first study of its kind in Brazil. This was a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study conducted with 233 LTCF residents aged 60 and over who underwent complete skin examination and Braden Scale rating every 2 days for 3 months. Two groups of patients were considered: the total group (N = 233) and risk group (n = 94, total scores <= 18). Data from the first and last assessments were analyzed for sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios. The best results were obtained for the total group, with cutoff scores of 18 and 17, sensitivity of 75.9% and 74.1%, specificity of 70.3% and 75.4%, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.79 and 0.81 at the first and last assessments, respectively. For the risk group, the cutoff scores of 16 (first assessment) and 13 (last assessment) were associated with a smaller AUC-ROC and, therefore, lower predictive accuracy. The Braden Scale showed good predictive validity in elderly LTCF residents. (Geriatr Nurs 2010;31:95-104)

Predictive Validity of Waterlow Scale for Pressure Ulcer Development Risk in Hospitalized Patients

AIM: We sought to evaluate the predictive validity of the Waterlow Scale in hospitalized patients. SUBJECTS AND SETTING: The study was conducted at a general private hospital with 220 beds and a mean time of hospitalization of 7.4 days and a mean occupation rate of approximately 80%. Adult patients with a Braden Scale score of 18 or less and a Waterlow Scale score of 16 or more were studied. The sample consisted of 98 patients with a mean age of 71.1 +/- 15.5 years. METHODS: Skin assessment and scoring by using the Waterlow and Braden scales were completed on alternate days. Patients were examined at least 3 times to be considered for analysis. The data were submitted to sensitivity and specificity analysis by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and positive (+LR) and negative (-LR) likelihood ratios. RESULTS: The cutoff scores were 17, 20, and 20 in the first, second, and third assessment, respectively. Sensitivity was 71.4%, 85.7%, and 85.7% and specificity was 67.0%, 40.7%, and 32.9%, respectively. Analysis of the area under the ROC curve revealed good accuracy (0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.35-0.93) only for the cutoff score 17 in the first assessment. The results also showed probabilities of 14%, 10%, and 9% for the development of pressure ulcer when the test results were positive (+LR) and of 3% (-LR) when the test results were negative for the cutoff scores in the first, second, and third assessment, respectively. CONCLUSION: The Waterlow Scale achieved good predictive validity in predicting pressure ulcer in hospitalized patients when a cutoff score of 17 was used in the first assessment.

Reliability and validity of the Impact of Event Scale (IES): version for Brazilian burn victims

Aims. The aims of this study were to assess the internal reliability (internal consistency), construct validity, sensitivity and ceiling and floor effects of the Brazilian-Portuguese version of the Impact of Event Scale (IES). Design. Methodological research design. Method. The Brazilian-Portuguese version of the IES was applied to a group of 91 burned patients at three times: the first week after the burn injury (time one), between the fourth and the sixth months (time two) and between the ninth and the 12th months (time three). The internal consistency, construct validity (convergent and dimensionality), sensitivity and ceiling and floor effects were tested. Results. Cronbach`s alpha coefficients showed high internal consistency for the total scale (0 center dot 87) and for the domains intrusive thoughts (0 center dot 87) and avoidance responses (0 center dot 76). During the hospitalisation (time one), the scale showed low and positive correlations with pain measures immediately before (r = 0 center dot 22; p < 0 center dot 05) and immediately after baths and dressings (r = 0 center dot 21; p < 0 center dot 05). After the discharge, we found strong and negative correlations with self-esteem (r = -0 center dot 52; p < 0 center dot 01), strong and positive with depression (r = 0 center dot 63; p < 0 center dot 01) and low and negative with the Bodily pain (r = -0 center dot 24; p < 0 center dot 05), Social functioning (r = -0 center dot 34; p < 0 center dot 01) and Mental health (r = -0 center dot 27; p < 0 center dot 05) domains of the SF-36 at time two. Regarding the sensitivity, no statistically significant differences were observed between mean scale scores according to burned body surface (p = 0 center dot 21). The floor effect was observed in most of the IES items. Conclusion. The adapted version of the scale showed to be reliable and valid to assess postburn reactions on the impact of the event in the group of patients under analysis. Relevance to clinical practice. The Impact of Event Scale can be used in research and clinical practice to assess nursing interventions aimed at decreasing stress during rehabilitation.

Decision making in fuzzy environment and multicriteria power engineering problems

This paper presents results of research into the use of the Bellman-Zadeh approach to decision making in a fuzzy environment for solving multicriteria power engineering problems. The application of the approach conforms to the principle of guaranteed result and provides constructive lines in computationally effective obtaining harmonious solutions on the basis of solving associated maxmin problems. The presented results are universally applicable and are already being used to solve diverse classes of power engineering problems. It is illustrated by considering problems of power and energy shortage allocation, power system operation, optimization of network configuration in distribution systems, and energetically effective voltage control in distribution systems. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A flexible consensus scheme for multicriteria group decision making under linguistic assessments

The present paper proposes a flexible consensus scheme for group decision making, which allows one to obtain a consistent collective opinion, from information provided by each expert in terms of multigranular fuzzy estimates. It is based on a linguistic hierarchical model with multigranular sets of linguistic terms, and the choice of the most suitable set is a prerogative of each expert. From the human viewpoint, using such model is advantageous, since it permits each expert to utilize linguistic terms that reflect more adequately the level of uncertainty intrinsic to his evaluation. From the operational viewpoint, the advantage of using such model lies in the fact that it allows one to express the linguistic information in a unique domain, without losses of information, during the discussion process. The proposed consensus scheme supposes that the moderator can interfere in the discussion process in different ways. The intervention can be a request to any expert to update his opinion or can be the adjustment of the weight of each expert`s opinion. An optimal adjustment can be achieved through the execution of an optimization procedure that searches for the weights that maximize a corresponding soft consensus index. In order to demonstrate the usefulness of the presented consensus scheme, a technique for multicriteria analysis, based on fuzzy preference relation modeling, is utilized for solving a hypothetical enterprise strategy planning problem, generated with the use of the Balanced Scorecard methodology. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multicriteria analysis in decision making under information uncertainty

This paper presents results of research related to multicriteria decision making under information uncertainty. The Bell-man-Zadeh approach to decision making in a fuzzy environment is utilized for analyzing multicriteria optimization models (< X, M > models) under deterministic information. Its application conforms to the principle of guaranteed result and provides constructive lines in obtaining harmonious solutions on the basis of analyzing associated maxmin problems. This circumstance permits one to generalize the classic approach to considering the uncertainty of quantitative information (based on constructing and analyzing payoff matrices reflecting effects which can be obtained for different combinations of solution alternatives and the so-called states of nature) in monocriteria decision making to multicriteria problems. Considering that the uncertainty of information can produce considerable decision uncertainty regions, the resolving capacity of this generalization does not always permit one to obtain unique solutions. Taking this into account, a proposed general scheme of multicriteria decision making under information uncertainty also includes the construction and analysis of the so-called < X, R > models (which contain fuzzy preference relations as criteria of optimality) as a means for the subsequent contraction of the decision uncertainty regions. The paper results are of a universal character and are illustrated by a simple example. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL CALLED ACQUANETXL IN THE ALLOCATION OF WATER IN COMPLEX WATER RESOURCE SYSTEMS

This article presents a tool for the allocation analysis of complex systems of water resources, called AcquaNetXL, developed in the form of spreadsheet in which a model of linear optimization and another nonlinear were incorporated. The AcquaNetXL keeps the concepts and attributes of a decision support system. In other words, it straightens out the communication between the user and the computer, facilitates the understanding and the formulation of the problem, the interpretation of the results and it also gives a support in the process of decision making, turning it into a clear and organized process. The performance of the algorithms used for solving the problems of water allocation was satisfactory especially for the linear model.