Integrating technology roadmapping and portfolio management at the front-end of new product development

Many authors point out that the front-end of new product development (NPD) is a critical success factor in the NPD process and that numerous companies face difficulties in carrying it out appropriately. Therefore, it is important to develop new theories and proposals that support the effective implementation of this earliest phase of NPD. This paper presents a new method to support the development of front-end activities based on integrating technology roadmapping (TRM) and project portfolio management (PPM). This new method, called the ITP Method, was implemented at a small Brazilian high-tech company in the nanotechnology industry to explore the integration proposal. The case study demonstrated that the ITP Method provides a systematic procedure for the fuzzy front-end and integrates innovation perspectives into a single roadmap, which allows for a better alignment of business efforts and communication of product innovation goals. Furthermore, the results indicated that the method may also improve quality, functional integration and strategy alignment. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison between detailed model simulation and artificial neural network for forecasting building energy consumption

There are several ways to attempt to model a building and its heat gains from external sources as well as internal ones in order to evaluate a proper operation, audit retrofit actions, and forecast energy consumption. Different techniques, varying from simple regression to models that are based on physical principles, can be used for simulation. A frequent hypothesis for all these models is that the input variables should be based on realistic data when they are available, otherwise the evaluation of energy consumption might be highly under or over estimated. In this paper, a comparison is made between a simple model based on artificial neural network (ANN) and a model that is based on physical principles (EnergyPlus) as an auditing and predicting tool in order to forecast building energy consumption. The Administration Building of the University of Sao Paulo is used as a case study. The building energy consumption profiles are collected as well as the campus meteorological data. Results show that both models are suitable for energy consumption forecast. Additionally, a parametric analysis is carried out for the considered building on EnergyPlus in order to evaluate the influence of several parameters such as the building profile occupation and weather data on such forecasting. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methodology to forecast the harvest date of banana bunches

Introduction. This method is used to forecast the harvest date of banana bunches from as early as the plant shooting stage. It facilitates the harvest of bunches with the same physiological age. The principle, key advantages, time required and expected results are presented. Materials and methods. Details of the four steps of the method ( installation of the temperature sensor, tagging bunches at the flowering stage, temperature sum calculation and estimation of bunch harvest date) are described. Possible problems are discussed. Results. The application of the method allows drawing a curve of the temperature sum accumulated by the bunches which have to be harvested at exactly 900 degree-days physiological age.

Roadmapping for technology push and partnership: A contribution for open innovation environments

There are several tools in the literature that support innovation in organizations. Some of the most cited are the so-called technology roadmapping methods, also known as TRM. However, these methods are designed primarily for organizations that adopt the market pull strategy of technology-product integration. Organizations that adopt the technology push integration strategy are neglected in the literature. Furthermore, with the advent of open innovation, it is possible to note the need to consider the adoption of partnerships in the innovation process. Thus, this study proposes a method of technology roadmapping, identified as method for technology push (MTP), applicable to organizations that adopt the technology push integration strategy, such as SMEs and independent research centers in an open-innovation environment. The method was developed through action-research and was assessed from two analytical standpoints: externally, via a specific literature review on its theoretical contributions, and internally, through the analysis of potential users` perceptions on the feasibility of applying MTP. The results indicate both the unique character of the method and its perceived implementation feasibility. Future research is suggested in order to validate the method in different types of organizations (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thermodynamic and topological instability approaches for forecasting glass-forming ability in the ternary Al-Ni-Y system

A thermodynamic approach to predict bulk glass-forming compositions in binary metallic systems was recently proposed. In this approach. the parameter gamma* = Delta H-amor/(Delta H-inter - Delta H-amor) indicates the glass-forming ability (GFA) from the standpoint of the driving force to form different competing phases, and Delta H-amor and Delta H-inter are the enthalpies for-lass and intermetallic formation, respectively. Good glass-forming compositions should have a large negative enthalpy for glass formation and a very small difference for intermetallic formation, thus making the glassy phase easily reachable even under low cooling rates. The gamma* parameter showed a good correlation with GFA experimental data in the Ni-Nb binary system. In this work, a simple extension of the gamma* parameter is applied in the ternary Al-Ni-Y system. The calculated gamma* isocontours in the ternary diagram are compared with experimental results of glass formation in that system. Despite sonic misfitting, the best glass formers are found quite close to the highest gamma* values, leading to the conclusion that this thermodynamic approach can lie extended to ternary systems, serving as a useful tool for the development of new glass-forming compositions. Finally the thermodynamic approach is compared with the topological instability criteria used to predict the thermal behavior of glassy Al alloys. (C) 2007 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

A QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR POSITIONING WITH GNSS TECHNOLOGY

This paper presents a proposal for a Quality Management System for a generic GNSS Surveying Company as an alternative for management and service quality improvements. As a result of the increased demand for GNSS measurements, a large number of new or restructured companies were established to operate in that market. Considering that GNSS surveying is a new process, some changes must be performed in order to accommodate the old surveying techniques and the old fashioned management to the new reality. This requires a new management model that must be based on a well-described procedure sequence aiming at the Total Management Quality for the company. The proposed Quality Management System was based on the requirements of the Quality System ISO 9000:2000, applied to the whole company, focusing on the productive process of GNSS surveying work.

Implementation of a Control Loop Experiment in a Network-Based Control System With LonWorks Technology and IP Networks

Considering the increasing popularity of network-based control systems and the huge adoption of IP networks (such as the Internet), this paper studies the influence of network quality of service (QoS) parameters over quality of control parameters. An example of a control loop is implemented using two LonWorks networks (CEA-709.1) interconnected by an emulated IP network, in which important QoS parameters such as delay and delay jitter can be completely controlled. Mathematical definitions are provided according to the literature, and the results of the network-based control loop experiment are presented and discussed.

Electric Power Forecasting Methodologies of Some South American Countries: A Comparative Analysis

In this paper, a comparative analysis of the long-term electric power forecasting methodologies used in some South American countries, is presented. The purpose of this study is to compare and observe if such methodologies have some similarities, and also examine the behavior of the results when they are applied to the Brazilian electric market. The abovementioned power forecasts were performed regarding the main four consumption classes (residential, industrial, commercial and rural) which are responsible for approximately 90% of the national consumption. The tool used in this analysis was the SAS (c) program. The outcome of this study allowed identifying various methodological similarities, mainly those related to the econometric variables used by these methods. This fact strongly conditioned the comparative results obtained.

Technology assessment for power quality mitigation devices - Micro-DVR case study

This work presents a case study on technology assessment for power quality improvement devices. A system compatibility test protocol for power quality mitigation devices was developed in order to evaluate the functionality of three-phase voltage restoration devices. In order to validate this test protocol, the micro-DVR, a reduced power development platform for DVR (dynamic voltage restorer) devices, was tested and the results are discussed based on voltage disturbances standards. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DEVELOPMENT OF A MICRO-HEAT EXCHANGER WITH STACKED PLATES USING LTCC TECHNOLOGY

A green ceramic tape micro-heat exchanger was developed using Low Temperature Co-fired Ceramics technology (LTCC). The device was designed by using Computational Aided Design software and simulations were made using a Computational Fluid Dynamics package (COMSOL Multiphysics) to evaluate the homogeneity of fluid distribution in the microchannels. Four geometries were proposed and simulated in two and three dimensions to show that geometric details directly affect the distribution of velocity in the micro-heat exchanger channels. The simulation results were quite useful for the design of the microfluidic device. The micro-heat exchanger was then constructed using the LTCC technology and is composed of five thermal exchange plates in cross-flow arrangement and two connecting plates, with all plates stacked to form a device with external dimensions of 26 x 26 x 6 mm(3).

A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

An estimate of biometric parameters in eucalyptus clone plantations in Southern Bahia: an application of the airborne laser scanning (ALS) technology

The application of airborne laser scanning (ALS) technologies in forest inventories has shown great potential to improve the efficiency of forest planning activities. Precise estimates, fast assessment and relatively low complexity can explain the good results in terms of efficiency. The evolution of GPS and inertial measurement technologies, as well as the observed lower assessment costs when these technologies are applied to large scale studies, can explain the increasing dissemination of ALS technologies. The observed good quality of results can be expressed by estimates of volumes and basal area with estimated error below the level of 8.4%, depending on the size of sampled area, the quantity of laser pulses per square meter and the number of control plots. This paper analyzes the potential of an ALS assessment to produce certain forest inventory statistics in plantations of cloned Eucalyptus spp with precision equal of superior to conventional methods. The statistics of interest in this case were: volume, basal area, mean height and dominant trees mean height. The ALS flight for data assessment covered two strips of approximately 2 by 20 Km, in which clouds of points were sampled in circular plots with a radius of 13 m. Plots were sampled in different parts of the strips to cover different stand ages. The clouds of points generated by the ALS assessment: overall height mean, standard error, five percentiles (height under which we can find 10%, 30%, 50%,70% and 90% of the ALS points above ground level in the cloud), and density of points above ground level in each percentile were calculated. The ALS statistics were used in regression models to estimate mean diameter, mean height, mean height of dominant trees, basal area and volume. Conventional forest inventory sample plots provided real data. For volume, an exploratory assessment involving different combinations of ALS statistics allowed for the definition of the most promising relationships and fitting tests based on well known forest biometric models. The models based on ALS statistics that produced the best results involved: the 30% percentile to estimate mean diameter (R(2)=0,88 and MQE%=0,0004); the 10% and 90% percentiles to estimate mean height (R(2)=0,94 and MQE%=0,0003); the 90% percentile to estimate dominant height (R(2)=0,96 and MQE%=0,0003); the 10% percentile and mean height of ALS points to estimate basal area (R(2)=0,92 and MQE%=0,0016); and, to estimate volume, age and the 30% and 90% percentiles (R(2)=0,95 MQE%=0,002). Among the tested forest biometric models, the best fits were provided by the modified Schumacher using age and the 90% percentile, modified Clutter using age, mean height of ALS points and the 70% percentile, and modified Buckman using age, mean height of ALS points and the 10% percentile.

Forecasting fuel ethanol consumption in Brazil by time series models: 2006-2012

This article analysed scenarios for Brazilian consumption of ethanol for the period 2006 to 2012. The results show that if the country`s GDP sustains a 4.6% a year growth, domestic consumption of fuel ethanol could increase to 25.16 billion liters in this period, which is a volume relatively close to the forecasted gasoline consumption of 31 billion liters. At a lower GDP growth of 1.22% a year, gasoline consumption would be reduced and domestic ethanol consumption in Brazil would be no higher than 18.32 billion liters. Contrary to the current situation, forecasts indicated that hydrated ethanol consumption could become much higher than anhydrous consumption in Brazil. The former is being consumed in cars moved exclusively by ethanol and flex-fuel cars, successfully introduced in the country at 2003. Flex cars allow Brazilian consumers to choose between gasoline and hydrated ethanol and immediately switch to whichever fuel presents the most favourable relative price.

Variable Demand and Profitability in Service Companies: a case study in the information technology sector

Managing a variable demand scenario is particularly challenging on services organizations because services companies usually have a major part of fixed costs. The article studies how a services organization manages its demand variability and its relation with the organization`s profitability. Moreover, the study searched for alternatives used to reduce the demand variability`s impact on the profitability of the company. The research was based on a case study with a Brazilian services provider on information technology business. The study suggests that alternatives like using outsourced employees to cover demand peaks may bring benefits only on short term, reducing the profitability of the company on long term: Some options are revealed, like the internationalization of employees and the investment on developing its own workforce.

Health technology diffusion in developing countries: a case study of CT scanners in Brazil

Background The development of products and services for health care systems is one of the most important phenomena to have occurred in the field of health care over the last 50 years. It generates significant commercial, medical and social results. Although much has been done to understand how health technologies are adopted and regulated in developed countries, little attention has been paid to the situation in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Here we examine the institutional environment in which decisions are made regarding the adoption of expensive medical devices into the Brazilian health care system. Methods We used a case study strategy to address our research question. The empirical work relied on in-depth interviews (N = 16) with representatives of a wide range of actors and stakeholders that participate in the process of diffusion of CT (computerized tomography) scanners in Brazil, including manufacturers, health care organizations, medical specialty societies, health insurance companies, regulatory agencies and the Ministry of Health. Results The adoption of CT scanners is not determined by health policy makers or third-party payers of public and private sectors. Instead, decisions are primarily made by administrators of individual hospitals and clinics, strongly influenced by both physicians and sales representatives of the medical industry who act as change agents. Because this process is not properly regulated by public authorities, health care organizations are free to decide whether, when and how they will adopt a particular technology. Conclusions Our study identifies problems in how health care systems in LMICs adopt new, expensive medical technologies, and suggests that a set of innovative approaches and policy instruments are needed in order to balance the institutional and professional desire to practise a modern and expensive medicine in a context of health inequalities and basic health needs.