The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

Influence of multi-scale landscape structure on the occurrence of carnivorous mammals in a human-modified savanna, Brazil

So Paulo is the most developed state in Brazil and contains few fragments of native ecosystems, generally surrounded by intensive agriculture lands. Despite this, some areas still shelter large native animals. We aimed at understanding how medium and large carnivores use a mosaic landscape of forest/savanna and agroecosystems, and how the species respond to different landscape parameters (percentage of landcover and edge density), in a multi-scale perspective. The response variables were: species richness, carnivore frequency and frequency for the three most recorded species (Puma concolor, Chrysocyon brachyurus and Leopardus pardalis). We compared 11 competing models using Akaike`s information criterion (AIC) and assessed model support using weight of AIC. Concurrent models were combinations of landcover types (native vegetation, ""cerrado"" formations, ""cerrado"" and eucalypt plantation), landscape feature (percentage of landcover and edge density) and spatial scale. Herein, spatial scale refers to the radius around a sampling point defining a circular landscape. The scales analyzed were 250 (fine), 1,000 (medium) and 2,000 m (coarse). The shape of curves for response variables (linear, exponential and power) was also assessed. Our results indicate that species with high mobility, P. concolor and C. brachyurus, were best explained by edge density of the native vegetation at a coarse scale (2,000 m). The relationship between P. concolor and C. brachyurus frequency had a negative power-shaped response to explanatory variables. This general trend was also observed for species richness and carnivore frequency. Species richness and P. concolor frequency were also well explained by a second concurrent model: edge density of cerrado at the fine (250 m) scale. A different response was recorded for L. pardalis, as the frequency was best explained for the amount of cerrado at the fine (250 m) scale. The curve of response was linearly positive. The contrasting results (P. concolor and C. brachyurus vs L. pardalis) may be due to the much higher mobility of the two first species, in comparison with the third. Still, L. pardalis requires habitat with higher quality when compared with other two species. This study highlights the importance of considering multiple spatial scales when evaluating species responses to different habitats. An important and new finding was the prevalence of edge density over the habitat extension to explain overall carnivore distribution, a key information for planning and management of protected areas.

Dynamic portrait of the planetary 2/1 mean-motion resonance - I. Systems with a more massive outer planet

We analyse the global structure of the phase space of the planar planetary 2/1 mean-motion resonance in cases where the outer planet is more massive than its inner companion. Inside the resonant domain, we show the existence of two families of periodic orbits, one associated to the librational motion of resonant angle (sigma-family) and the other related to the circulatory motion of the difference in longitudes of pericentre (Delta pi-family). The well-known apsidal corotation resonances (ACR) appear as intersections between both families. A complex web of secondary resonances is also detected for low eccentricities, whose strengths and positions are dependent on the individual masses and spatial scale of the system. The construction of dynamical maps for various values of the total angular momentum shows the evolution of the families of stable motion with the eccentricities, identifying possible configurations suitable for exoplanetary systems. For low-moderate eccentricities, several different stable modes exist outside the ACR. For larger eccentricities, however, all stable solutions are associated to oscillations around the stationary solutions. Finally, we present a possible link between these stable families and the process of resonance capture, identifying the most probable routes from the secular region to the resonant domain, and discussing how the final resonant configuration may be affected by the extension of the chaotic layer around the resonance region.

Comparing species and measures of landscape structure as indicators of conservation importance

P>1. The use of indicators to identify areas of conservation importance has been challenged on several grounds, but nonetheless retains appeal as no more parsimonious approach exists. Among the many variants, two indicator strategies stand out: the use of indicator species and the use of metrics of landscape structure. While the first has been thoroughly studied, the same cannot be said about the latter. We aimed to contrast the relative efficacy of species-based and landscape-based indicators by: (i) comparing their ability to reflect changes in community integrity at regional and landscape spatial scales, (ii) assessing their sensitivity to changes in data resolution, and (iii) quantifying the degree to which indicators that are generated in one landscape or at one spatial scale can be transferred to additional landscapes or scales. 2. We used data from more than 7000 bird captures in 65 sites from six 10 000-ha landscapes with different proportions of forest cover in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil. Indicator species and landscape-based indicators were tested in terms of how effective they were in reflecting changes in community integrity, defined as deviations in bird community composition from control areas. 3. At the regional scale, indicator species provided more robust depictions of community integrity than landscape-based indicators. At the landscape scale, however, landscape-based indicators performed more effectively, more consistently and were also more transferable among landscapes. The effectiveness of high resolution landscape-based indicators was reduced by just 12% when these were used to explain patterns of community integrity in independent data sets. By contrast, the effectiveness of species-based indicators was reduced by 33%. 4. Synthesis and applications. The use of indicator species proved to be effective; however their results were variable and sensitive to changes in scale and resolution, and their application requires extensive and time-consuming field work. Landscape-based indicators were not only effective but were also much less context-dependent. The use of landscape-based indicators may allow the rapid identification of priority areas for conservation and restoration, and indicate which restoration strategies should be pursued, using remotely sensed imagery. We suggest that landscape-based indicators might often be a better, simpler, and cheaper strategy for informing decisions in conservation.

Is bird incidence in Atlantic forest fragments influenced by landscape patterns at multiple scales?

The degree to which habitat fragmentation affects bird incidence is species specific and may depend on varying spatial scales. Selecting the correct scale of measurement is essential to appropriately assess the effects of habitat fragmentation on bird occurrence. Our objective was to determine which spatial scale of landscape measurement best describes the incidence of three bird species (Pyriglena leucoptera, Xiphorhynchus fuscus and Chiroxiphia caudata) in the fragmented Brazilian Atlantic forest and test if multi-scalar models perform better than single-scalar ones. Bird incidence was assessed in 80 forest fragments. The surrounding landscape structure was described with four indices measured at four spatial scales (400-, 600-, 800- and 1,000-m buffers around the sample points). The explanatory power of each scale in predicting bird incidence was assessed using logistic regression, bootstrapped with 1,000 repetitions. The best results varied between species (1,000-m radius for P. leucoptera; 800-m for X. fuscus and 600-m for C. caudata), probably due to their distinct feeding habits and foraging strategies. Multi-scale models always resulted in better predictions than single-scale models, suggesting that different aspects of the landscape structure are related to different ecological processes influencing bird incidence. In particular, our results suggest that local extinction and (re)colonisation processes might simultaneously act at different scales. Thus, single-scale models may not be good enough to properly describe complex pattern-process relationships. Selecting variables at multiple ecologically relevant scales is a reasonable procedure to optimise the accuracy of species incidence models.

Importance of estimating matrix quality for modeling species distribution in complex tropical landscapes: a test with Atlantic forest small mammals

Information to guide decision making is especially urgent in human dominated landscapes in the tropics, where urban and agricultural frontiers are still expanding in an unplanned manner. Nevertheless, most studies that have investigated the influence of landscape structure on species distribution have not considered the heterogeneity of altered habitats of the matrix, which is usually high in human dominated landscapes. Using the distribution of small mammals in forest remnants and in the four main altered habitats in an Atlantic forest landscape, we investigated 1) how explanatory power of models describing species distribution in forest remnants varies between landscape structure variables that do or do not incorporate matrix quality and 2) the importance of spatial scale for analyzing the influence of landscape structure. We used standardized sampling in remnants and altered habitats to generate two indices of habitat quality, corresponding to the abundance and to the occurrence of small mammals. For each remnant, we calculated habitat quantity and connectivity in different spatial scales, considering or not the quality of surrounding habitats. The incorporation of matrix quality increased model explanatory power across all spatial scales for half the species that occurred in the matrix, but only when taking into account the distance between habitat patches (connectivity). These connectivity models were also less affected by spatial scale than habitat quantity models. The few consistent responses to the variation in spatial scales indicate that despite their small size, small mammals perceive landscape features at large spatial scales. Matrix quality index corresponding to species occurrence presented a better or similar performance compared to that of species abundance. Results indicate the importance of the matrix for the dynamics of fragmented landscapes and suggest that relatively simple indices can improve our understanding of species distribution, and could be applied in modeling, monitoring and managing complex tropical landscapes.

Spatial patterns of malaria in a land reform colonization project, Juruena municipality, Mato Grosso, Brazil

Background: In Brazil, 99% of malaria cases are concentrated in the Amazon, and malaria's spatial distribution is commonly associated with socio-environmental conditions on a fine landscape scale. In this study, the spatial patterns of malaria and its determinants in a rural settlement of the Brazilian agricultural reform programme called ""Vale do Amanhecer"" in the northern Mato Grosso state were analysed. Methods: In a fine-scaled, exploratory ecological study, geocoded notification forms corresponding to malaria cases from 2005 were compared with spectral indices, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the third component of the Tasseled Cap Transformation (TC_3) and thematic layers, derived from the visual interpretation of multispectral TM-Landsat 5 imagery and the application of GIS distance operators. Results: Of a total of 336 malaria cases, 102 (30.36%) were caused by Plasmodium falciparum and 174 (51.79%) by Plasmodium vivax. Of all the cases, 37.6% (133 cases) were from residents of a unique road. In total, 276 cases were reported for the southern part of the settlement, where the population density is higher, with notification rates higher than 10 cases per household. The local landscape mostly consists of open areas (38.79 km(2)). Training forest occupied 27.34 km(2) and midsize vegetation 7.01 km(2). Most domiciles with more than five notified malaria cases were located near areas with high NDVI values. Most domiciles (41.78%) and malaria cases (44.94%) were concentrated in areas with intermediate values of the TC_3, a spectral index representing surface and vegetation humidity. Conclusions: Environmental factors and their alteration are associated with the occurrence and spatial distribution of malaria cases in rural settlements.

Regional scale analysis of landform configuration with base-level (isobase) maps

Base-level maps (or ""isobase maps"", as originally defined by Filosofov, 1960), express a relationship between valley order and topography. The base-level map can be seen as a ""simplified"" version of the original topographic surface, from which the ""noise"" of the low-order stream erosion was removed. This method is able to identify areas with possible tectonic influence even within lithologically uniform domains. Base-level maps have been recently applied in semi-detail scale (e.g., 1:50 000 or larger) morphotectonic analysis. In this paper, we present an evaluation of the method's applicability in regional-scale analysis (e.g., 1:250 000 or smaller). A test area was selected in northern Brazil, at the lower course of the Araguaia and Tocantins rivers. The drainage network extracted from SRTM30_PLUS DEMs with spatial resolution of approximately 900 m was visually compared with available topographic maps and considered to be compatible with a 1:1,000 000 scale. Regarding the interpretation of regional-scale morphostructures, the map constructed with 2nd and 3rd-order valleys was considered to present the best results. Some of the interpreted base-level anomalies correspond to important shear zones and geological contacts present in the 1:5 000 000 Geological Map of South America. Others have no correspondence with mapped Precambrian structures and are considered to represent younger, probably neotectonic, features. A strong E-W orientation of the base-level lines over the inflexion of the Araguaia and Tocantins rivers, suggest a major drainage capture. A N-S topographic swath profile over the Tocantins and Araguaia rivers reveals a topographic pattern which, allied with seismic data showing a roughly N-S direction of extension in the area, lead us to interpret this lineament as an E-W, southward-dipping normal fault. There is also a good visual correspondence between the base-level lineaments and geophysical anomalies. A NW-SE lineament in the southeast of the study area partially corresponds to the northern border of the Mosquito lava field, of Jurassic age, and a NW-SE lineament traced in the northeastern sector of the study area can be interpreted as the Picos-Santa Ines lineament, identifiable in geophysical maps but with little expression in hypsometric or topographic maps.

Understanding the Influences of Spatial Patterns on N Availability Within the Brazilian Amazon Forest

Nitrogen variations at different spatial scales and integrated across functional groups were addressed for lowland tropical forests in the Brazilian Amazon as follows: (1) how does N availability vary across the region over different spatial scales (regional x landscape scale); ( 2) how are these variations in N availability integrated across plant functional groups ( legume 9 non-legume trees). Leaf N, P, and Ca concentrations as well the leaf N isotope ratios (delta(15)N) from a large set of legume and non-legume tree species were measured. Legumes had higher foliar N/Ca ratios than non-legumes, consistent with the high energetic costs in plant growth associated with higher foliar P/Ca ratios found in legumes than in non-legumes. At the regional level, foliar delta(15)N decreased with increasing rainfall. At the landscape level, N availability was higher in the forests on clayey soils on the plateau than in forests on sandier soils. The isotope as well as the non-isotope data relationships here documented, explain to a large extent the variation in delta(15)N signatures across gradients of rainfall and soil. Although at the regional level, the precipitation regime is a major determinant of differences in N availability, at the landscape level, under the same precipitation regime, soil type seems to be a major factor influencing the availability of N in the Brazilian Amazon forest.

Buckling and post-buckling of extensible rods revisited: A multiple-scale solution

An exact non-linear formulation of the equilibrium of elastic prismatic rods subjected to compression and planar bending is presented, electing as primary displacement variable the cross-section rotations and taking into account the axis extensibility. Such a formulation proves to be sufficiently general to encompass any boundary condition. The evaluation of critical loads for the five classical Euler buckling cases is pursued, allowing for the assessment of the axis extensibility effect. From the quantitative viewpoint, it is seen that such an influence is negligible for very slender bars, but it dramatically increases as the slenderness ratio decreases. From the qualitative viewpoint, its effect is that there are not infinite critical loads, as foreseen by the classical inextensible theory. The method of multiple (spatial) scales is used to survey the post-buckling regime for the five classical Euler buckling cases, with remarkable success, since very small deviations were observed with respect to results obtained via numerical integration of the exact equation of equilibrium, even when loads much higher than the critical ones were considered. Although known beforehand that such classical Euler buckling cases are imperfection insensitive, the effect of load offsets were also looked at, thus showing that the formulation is sufficiently general to accommodate this sort of analysis. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model for facilities or vendors location in a global scale considering several echelons in the Chain

The facilities location problem for companies with global operations is very complex and not well explored in the literature. This work proposes a MILP model that solves the problem through minimization of the total logistic cost. Main contributions of the model are the pioneer carrying cost calculation, the treatment given to the take-or-pay costs and to the international tax benefits such as drawback and added value taxes in Brazil. The model was successfully applied to a real case of a chemical industry with industrial plants and sales all over the world. The model application recommended a totally new sourcing model for the company.

Watershed scale temporal stability of soil water content

The recognition of temporally stable locations with respect to soil water content is of importance for soil water management decisions, especially in sloping land of watersheds. Neutron probe soil water content (0 to 0.8 m), evaluated at 20 dates during a year in the Loess Plateau of China, in a 20 ha watershed dominated by Ust-Sandiic Entisols and Aeolian sandy soils, were used to define their temporal stability through two indices: the standard deviation of relative difference (SDRD) and the mean absolute bias error (MABE). Specific concerns were (a) the relationship of temporal stability with soil depth, (b) the effects of soil texture and land use on temporal stability, and (c) the spatial pattern of the temporal stability. Results showed that temporal stability of soil water content at 0.2 m was significantly weaker than those at the soil depths of 0.6 and 0.8 m. Soil texture can significantly (P<0.05) affect the stability of soil water content except for the existence of an insignificant difference between sandy loam and silt loam textures, while temporal stability of areas covered by bunge needlegrass land was not significantly different from those covered by korshinsk peashrub. Geostatistical analysis showed that the temporal stability was spatially variable in an organized way as inferred by the degree of spatial dependence index. With increasing soil depth, the range of both temporal stability indices showed an increasing trend, being 65.8-120.5 m for SDRD and 148.8-214.1 m for MABE, respectively. This study provides a valuable support for soil water content measurements for soil water management and hydrological applications on sloping land areas. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Large-scale ecological restoration of high-diversity tropical forests in SE Brazil

The complex interactions among endangered ecosystems, landowners` interests, and different models of land tenure and use, constitute an important series of challenges for those seeking to maintain and restore biodiversity and augment the flow of ecosystem services. Over the past 10 years, we have developed a data-based approach to address these challenges and to achieve medium and large-scale ecological restoration of riparian areas on private lands in the state of Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil. Given varying motivations for ecological restoration, the location of riparian areas within landholdings, environmental zoning of different riparian areas, and best-practice restoration methods were developed for each situation. A total of 32 ongoing projects, covering 527,982 ha, were evaluated in large sugarcane farms and small mixed farms, and six different restoration techniques have been developed to help upscale the effort. Small mixed farms had higher portions of land requiring protection as riparian areas (13.3%), and lower forest cover of riparian areas (18.3%), than large sugarcane farms (10.0% and 36.9%, respectively for riparian areas and forest cover values). In both types of farms, forest fragments required some degree of restoration. Historical anthropogenic degradation has compromised forest ecosystem structure and functioning, despite their high-diversity of native tree and shrub species. Notably, land use patterns in riparian areas differed markedly. Large sugarcane farms had higher portions of riparian areas occupied by highly mechanized agriculture, abandoned fields, and anthropogenic wet fields created by siltation in water courses. In contrast, in small mixed crop farms, low or non-mechanized agriculture and pasturelands were predominant. Despite these differences, plantations of native tree species covering the entire area was by far the main restoration method needed both by large sugarcane farms (76.0%) and small mixed farms (92.4%), in view of the low resilience of target sites, reduced forest cover, and high fragmentation, all of which limit the potential for autogenic restoration. We propose that plantations should be carried out with a high-diversity of native species in order to create biologically viable restored forests, and to assist long-term biodiversity persistence at the landscape scale. Finally, we propose strategies to integrate the political, socio-economic and methodological aspects needed to upscale restoration efforts in tropical forest regions throughout Latin America and elsewhere. (C) 2010 Elsevier BA/. All rights reserved.

Spatial aspects of trade liberalization in Colombia: A general equilibrium approach

This paper offers some preliminary steps in the marriage of some of the theoretical foundations of new economic geography with spatial computable general equilibrium models. Modelling the spatial economy of Colombia using the traditional assumptions of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models makes little sense when one territorial unit, Bogota, accounts for over one quarter of GDP and where transportation costs are high and accessibility low compared to European or North American standards. Hence, handling market imperfections becomes imperative as does the need to address internal spatial issues from the perspective of Colombia`s increasing involvement with external markets. The paper builds on the Centro de Estudios de Economia Regional (CEER) model, a spatial CGE model of the Colombian economy; non-constant returns and non-iceberg transportation costs are introduced and some simulation exercises carried out. The results confirm the asymmetric impacts that trade liberalization has on a spatial economy in which one region, Bogota, is able to more fully exploit scale economies vis--vis the rest of Colombia. The analysis also reveals the importance of different hypotheses on factor mobility and the role of price effects to better understand the consequences of trade opening in a developing economy.

Elevated left and reduced right orbitomedial prefrontal fractional anisotropy in adults with bipolar disorder revealed by tract-based spatial statistics

Context Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) studies in adults with bipolar disorder (BD) indicate altered white matter (WM) in the orbitomedial prefrontal cortex (OMPFC), potentially underlying abnormal prefrontal corticolimbic connectivity and mood dysregulatioin in BD. Objective: To use tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) to examine VVM skeleton (ie, the most compact whole-brain WM) in subjects with BD vs healthy control subjects. Design: Cross-sectional, case-control, whole-brain DTI using TBSS. Setting: University research institute. Participants: Fifty-six individuals, 31 having a DSM-IV diagnosis of BD type 1 (mean age, 35.9 years [age range, 24-52 years]) and 25 controls (mean age, 29.5 years [age range, 19-52 years]). Main Outcome Measures: Fractional anisotropy (FA) longitudinal and radial diffusivities in subjects with BD vs controls (covarying for age) and their relationships with clinical and demographic variables. Results: Subjects with BD vs controls had significantly greater FA (t > 3.0, P <=.05 corrected) in the left uncinate fasciculus (reduced radial diffusivity distally and increased longitudinal diffusivity centrally), left optic radiation (increased longitudinal diffusivity), and right anterothalamic radiation (no significant diffusivity change). Subjects with BD vs controls had significantly reduced FA (t > 3.0, P <=.05 corrected) in the right uncinate fasciculus (greater radial diffusivity). Among subjects with BD, significant negative correlations (P <.01) were found between age and FA in bilateral uncinate fasciculi and in the right anterothalamic radiation, as well as between medication load and FA in the left optic radiation. Decreased FA (P <.01) was observed in the left optic radiation and in the right anterothalamic radiation among subjects with BD taking vs those not taking mood stabilizers, as well as in the left optic radiation among depressed vs remitted subjects with BD. Subjects having BD with vs without lifetime alcohol or other drug abuse had significantly decreased FA in the left uncinate fasciculus. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first study to use TBSS to examine WM in subjects with BD. Subjects with BD vs controls showed greater WM FA in the left OMPFC that diminished with age and with alcohol or other drug abuse, as well as reduced WM FA in the right OMPFC. Mood stabilizers and depressed episode reduced WM FA in left-sided sensory visual processing regions among subjects with BD. Abnormal right vs left asymmetry in FA in OMPFC WM among subjects with BD, likely reflecting increased proportions of left-sided longitudinally aligned and right-sided obliquely aligned myelinated fibers, may represent a biologic mechanism for mood dysregulation in BD.