The game of contacts: Estimating the social visibility of groups

Estimating the sizes of hard-to-count populations is a challenging and important problem that occurs frequently in social science, public health, and public policy. This problem is particularly pressing in HIV/AIDS research because estimates of the sizes of the most at-risk populations-illicit drug users, men who have sex with men, and sex workers-are needed for designing, evaluating, and funding programs to curb the spread of the disease. A promising new approach in this area is the network scale-up method, which uses information about the personal networks of respondents to make population size estimates. However, if the target population has low social visibility, as is likely to be the case in HIV/AIDS research, scale-up estimates will be too low. In this paper we develop a game-like activity that we call the game of contacts in order to estimate the social visibility of groups, and report results from a study of heavy drug users in Curitiba, Brazil (n = 294). The game produced estimates of social visibility that were consistent with qualitative expectations but of surprising magnitude. Further, a number of checks suggest that the data are high-quality. While motivated by the specific problem of population size estimation, our method could be used by researchers more broadly and adds to long-standing efforts to combine the richness of social network analysis with the power and scale of sample surveys. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reproductive ecology of dipsadine snakes, with emphasis on South American species

A relatively large amount of variation occurs in the reproductive ecology of tropical snakes, and this variation is generally regarded as being a consequence of seasonality in climate and prey availability. In some groups, even closely related species may differ in their reproductive ecology; however, in others it seems to be very conservative. Here we explore whether characters related to reproduction are phylogenetically constrained in a monophyletic group of snakes, the subfamily Dipsadinae, which ranges from Mexico to southern South America. We provide original data on reproduction for Leptodeira annulata, Imantodes cenchoa, and three species of Sibynomorphus from southern, southeastern and central Brazil, and data from literature for other species and populations of dipsadines. Follicular cycles were seasonal in Atractus reticulatus, Dipsa, albifrons, Hypsiglena torquata, Leptodeira maculata, L. punctata, Sibynomorphus spp. and Sibon sanniola from areas where climate is seasonal. In contrast, extended or continuous follicular cycles were recorded in Dipsas catesbyi, D. neivai, Imantodes cenchoa, Leptodeira annulata, and Ninia maculata from areas with seasonal and aseasonal climates. Testicular cycles also varied from seasonal (in H. torquiata) to continuous (in Dipsa,5 spp., Leptodeira annulata, L. maculata, N. maculata, and Sibynomorphus spp.). Most dipsadines are small (less than 500 rum SVL), and females attain sexual maturity with similar relative body size than males. Sexual dimorphism occurred in terms of SVL and tail length in most species, and clutch size tended to be small (less than five eggs). Combat behavior occurs in Imantodes cenchoa, which did not show sexual size dimorphism. Reproductive timing, for both females and males, varied among species but in general there were no differences between the tribes of Dipsadinae in most of the reproductive characteristics, such as mean body size, relative size at sexual maturity, sexual size and tail dimorphism, duration of vitellogenesis or egg-carrying in oviducts.

Social organization of marine Tucuxi dolphins, Sotalia guianensis, in the Cananeia Estuary of southeastern Brazil

Social organization is an important component of the population biology of a species that influences gene flow, the spatial pattern and scale of movements, and the effects of predation or exploitation by humans. An important element of social structure in mammals is group fidelity, which can be quantified through association indices. To describe the social organization of marine tucuxi dolphins (Sotalia guianensis) found in the Cananeia estuary, southeastern Brazil, association indices were applied to photo-identification data to characterize the temporal stability of relationships among members of this population. Eighty-seven days of fieldwork were conducted from May 2000 to July 2003, resulting in direct observations of 374 distinct groups. A total of 138 dolphins were identified on 1-38 distinct field days. Lone dolphins were rarely seen, whereas groups were composed of up to 60 individuals (mean +/- 1 SD = 12.4 +/- 11.4 individuals per group). A total of 29,327 photographs were analyzed, of which 6,312 (21.5%) were considered useful for identifying individuals. Half-weight and simple ratio indices were used to investigate associations among S. guianensis as revealed by the entire data set, data from the core study site, and data from groups composed of <= 10 individuals. Monte Carlo methods indicated that only 3 (9.3%) of 32 association matrices differed significantly from expectations based on random association. Thus, our study suggests that stable associations are not characteristic of S. guianensis in the Cananeia estuary.