Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Affected and non-affected skin fibroblasts from systemic sclerosis patients share a gene expression profile deviated from the one observed in healthy individuals

Objectives To evaluate the gene expression profile of fibroblasts from affected and non-affected skin of systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients and from controls. Materials and methods Labeled cDNA from fibroblast cultures from forearm (affected) and axillary (non-affected) skin from six diffuse SSc patients, from three normal controls, and from MOLT-4/HEp-2/normal fibroblasts (reference pool) was probed in microarrays generated with 4193 human cDNAs from the IMAGE Consortium. Microarray images were converted into numerical data and gene expression was calculated as the ratio between fibroblast cDNA (Cy5) and reference pool cDNA (Cy3) data and analyzed by R environment/Aroma, Cluster, Tree View, and SAM softwares. Differential expression was confirmed by real time PCR for a set of selected genes. Results Eighty-eight genes were up- and 241 genes down-regulated in SSc fibroblasts. Gene expression correlation was strong between affected and non-affected fibroblast samples from the same patient (r>0.8), moderate among fibroblasts from all patients (r=0.72) and among fibroblasts from all controls (r=0.70), and modest among fibroblasts from patients and controls (r=0.55). The differential expression was confirmed by real time PCR for all selected genes. Conclusions Fibroblasts from affected and non-affected skin of SSc patients shared a similar abnormal gene expression profile, suggesting that the widespread molecular disturbance in SSc fibroblasts is more sensitive than histological and clinical alterations. Novel molecular elements potentially involved in SSc pathogenesis were identified.

Multipotent mesenchymal stromal cells obtained from diverse human tissues share functional properties and gene-expression profile with CD146(+) perivascular cells and fibroblasts

Objective. The relationship of multipotent mesenchymal stromal cells (MSC) with pericytes and fibroblasts has not been established thus far, although they share many markers of primitive marrow stromal cells and the osteogenic, adipogenic, and chondrogenic differentiation potentials. Materials and Methods. We compared MSCs from adult or fetal tissues, MSC differentiated in vitro, fibroblasts and cultures of retinal pericytes obtained either by separation with anti-CD146 or adhesion. The characterizations included morphological, immunophenotypic, gene-expression profile, and differentiation potential. Results. Osteogenic, adipocytic, and chondrocytic differentiation was demonstrated for MSC, retinal perivascular cells, and fibroblasts. Cell morphology and the phenotypes defined by 22 markers were very similar. Analysis of the global gene expression obtained by serial analysis of gene expression for 17 libraries and by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction of 39 selected genes from 31 different cell cultures, revealed similarities among MSC, retinal perivascular cells, and hepatic stellate cells. Despite this overall similarity, there was a heterogeneous expression of genes related to angiogenesis, in MSC derived from veins, artery, perivascular cells, and fibroblasts. Evaluation of typical pericyte and MSC transcripts, such as NG2, CD146, CD271, and CD140B on CD146 selected perivascular cells and MSC by real-time polymerase chain reaction confirm the relationship between these two cell types. Furthermore, the inverse correlation between fibroblast-specific protein-1 and CD146 transcripts observed on pericytes, MSC, and fibroblasts highlight their potential use as markers of this differentiation pathway. Conclusion. Our results indicate that human MSC and pericytes are similar cells located in the wall of the vasculature, where they function as cell sources for repair and tissue maintenance, whereas fibroblasts are more differentiated cells with more restricted differentiation potential. (C) 2008 ISEH - Society for Hematology and Stem Cells. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Syndromic and non-syndromic aneurysms of the human ascending aorta share activation of the Smad2 pathway

Common features such as elastic fibre destruction, mucoid accumulation, and smooth muscle cell apoptosis are co-localized in aneurysms of the ascending aorta of various aetiologies. Recent experimental studies reported an activation of TGF-beta in aneurysms related to Marfan (and Loeys-Dietz) syndrome. Here we investigate TGF-beta signalling in normal and pathological human ascending aortic wall in syndromic and non-syndromic aneurysmal disease. Aneurysmal ascending aortic specimens, classified according to aetiology: syndromic MFS (n = 15, including two mutations in TGFBR2), associated with BAV (n = 15) or degenerative forms (n = 19), were examined. We show that the amounts of TGF-beta 1 protein retained within and released by aneurysmal tissue were greater than for control aortic tissue, whatever the aetiology, contrasting with an unchanged TGF-beta 1 mRNA level. The increase in stored TGF-beta 1 was associated with enhanced LTBP-I protein and mRNA levels. These dysiregulations of the extracellular ligand are associated with higher phosphorylated Smad2 and Smad2 mRNA levels in the ascending aortic wall from all types of aneurysm. This activation correlated with the degree of elastic fibre fragmentation. Surprisingly, there was no consistent association between the nuclear location of pSmad2 and extracellular TGF-beta 1 and LTBP-I staining and between their respective mRNA expressions. In parallel, decorin. was focally increased in aneurysmal media, whereas biglycan was globally decreased in aneurysmal aortas. In conclusion, this study highlights independent dysregulations of TGF-beta retention and Smad2 signalling in syndromic and non-syndromic aneurysms of the ascending aorta. Copyright (C) 2009 Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Two new species of Moenkhausia Eigenmann (Characiformes: Characidae) from Serra do Cachimbo, Pará, Northern Brazil

Two new species of Moenkhausia, one from the rio Tapajós and the other from the rio Xingu basins are described as apparently endemics of the Serra do Cachimbo. Both species, along with M. petymbuaba, share a distinct color pattern composed of large conspicuous dark blotches on the base of the body scales. Moenkhausia chlorophthalma, from rio Treze de Maio, a tributary to rio Curuá (rio Xingu basin), is distinguished by the presence of a proximal well delimited black area on the adipose fin and a green eye in life. Moenkhausia plumbea of the headwaters of tributaries of the rio Braço Norte, rio Tapajós basin is diagnosed by the presence of a dark longitudinal stripe across the eye and six branched pelvic-fin rays (vs. seven). Relationships of the new species with other Moenkhausia are discussed.

Crise financeira, energia e sustentabilidade no Brasil

A recente crise financeira global traz consigo efeitos como a redução da atividade econômica e, consequentemente, do consumo de energia. Essa pode ser uma importante oportunidade para reorganizar o sistema energético em bases mais sólidas e sustentáveis: a eficiência, a maior participação das fontes renováveis e a descentralização da produção de energia. O Brasil e outros países em desenvolvimento podem aproveitar a experiência dos países desenvolvidos em eficiência energética, complementando com um programa vigoroso em energias renováveis, particularmente as "modernas" (eólica, solar, biomassa e pequenas hidrelétricas). Entretanto, preocupa o cenário inercial nacional, baseado num aumento da participação das fontes fósseis de energia na matriz, na priorização dos recursos à exploração de petróleo e gás natural e na manutenção de padrões insustentáveis de produção e consumo.

Learning processes and the neural analysis of conditioning

Classical and operant conditioning principles, such as the behavioral discrepancy-derived assumption that reinforcement always selects antecedent stimulus and response relations, have been studied at the neural level, mainly by observing the strengthening of neuronal responses or synaptic connections. A review of the literature on the neural basis of behavior provided extensive scientific data that indicate a synthesis between the two conditioning processes based mainly on stimulus control in learning tasks. The resulting analysis revealed the following aspects. Dopamine acts as a behavioral discrepancy signal in the midbrain pathway of positive reinforcement, leading toward the nucleus accumbens. Dopamine modulates both types of conditioning in the Aplysia mollusk and in mammals. In vivo and in vitro mollusk preparations show convergence of both types of conditioning in the same motor neuron. Frontal cortical neurons are involved in behavioral discrimination in reversal and extinction procedures, and these neurons preferentially deliver glutamate through conditioned stimulus or discriminative stimulus pathways. Discriminative neural responses can reliably precede operant movements and can also be common to stimuli that share complex symbolic relations. The present article discusses convergent and divergent points between conditioning paradigms at the neural level of analysis to advance our knowledge on reinforcement.

As disciplinas pedagógicas na formação e na construção de representações sobre o trabalho docente: visões de alunos de licenciatura em Química e Física

Este estudo tem como objetivo analisar as concepções de licenciandos em Química e em Física sobre a prática profissional e as marcas deixadas pelas disciplinas pedagógicas na sua formação, assim como identificar sinais de mudanças em suas concepções durante a realização do curso de Licenciatura. Para tanto, textos foram produzidos por 54 alunos matriculados em cursos de Licenciatura de duas universidades públicas do estado de São Paulo, nos quais os licenciandos expressaram suas experiências de formação e apontaram elementos que consideram que terão alguma influência em sua atuação profissional. Os textos revelaram que as ideias que os licenciandos carregam são consistentes com muitas das visões e objetivos apresentados em cursos de formação de professores. Nas produções dos estudantes faz-se presente o desejo de compartilhar e promover em seus futuros alunos o interesse pela Química e a Física. Os seus comentários refletiram visões de professores que tiveram no passado, os quais gostariam de imitar, e de outros que não gostariam de ser. Os comentários também tornaram evidente a vontade dos licenciandos em se estabelecerem como professores que se preocupam com seus alunos. Os textos foram analisados segundo a Análise do Discurso de linha francesa, como tem sido divulgada por Eni Orlandi, especialmente a noção de formação discursiva.

Trichomycterus igobi, a new catfish species from the rio Iguaçu drainage: the largest head in Trichomycteridae (Siluriformes: Trichomycteridae)

A new species of Trichomycterus is described for the rio Iguaçu drainage in Southern Brazil. Trichomycterus igobi, new species, is readily distinguishable from all other species currently in the genus by its extremely large head (23.8-26.8 % SL), which is proportionally the largest head in any Trichomycteridae. That characteristic plus the relatively deep body result in a very short-bodied overall aspect, the most extremely such case in the genus Trichomycterus. Other diagnostic features that distinguish the new species from most or all of its congeners include a short caudal peduncle (15.4-19.7 % SL); an almost entirely cartilaginous second hypobranchial (with only vestigial ossification); a mesial expanded palatine ossification; a narrow cleithrum, falciform in shape; and the lack of a proximal posterior concavity on the third ceratobranchial. The new species seems to form a monophyletic group with T. stawiarski and other undescribed species (T. sp. C), also endemic to the rio Iguaçu. As putative synapomorphies, the three species share a rigid spine-like morphology of individual procurrent caudal-fin rays, an extended area of dorsal caudal-fin procurrent rays, and numerous branchiostegal rays (ten or eleven).

A new classification of foods based on the extent and purpose of their processing

This paper describes a new food classification which assigns foodstuffs according to the extent and purpose of the industrial processing applied to them. Three main groups are defined: unprocessed or minimally processed foods (group 1), processed culinary and food industry ingredients (group 2), and ultra-processed food products (group 3). The use of this classification is illustrated by applying it to data collected in the Brazilian Household Budget Survey which was conducted in 2002/2003 through a probabilistic sample of 48,470 Brazilian households. The average daily food availability was 1,792 kcal/person being 42.5% from group 1 (mostly rice and beans and meat and milk), 37.5% from group 2 (mostly vegetable oils, sugar, and flours), and 20% from group 3 (mostly breads, biscuits, sweets, soft drinks, and sausages). The share of group 3 foods increased with income, and represented almost one third of all calories in higher income households. The impact of the replacement of group 1 foods and group 2 ingredients by group 3 products on the overall quality of the diet, eating patterns and health is discussed.

Aquisição de açúcar e perfil de macronutrientes na cesta de alimentos adquirida pelas famílias brasileiras (2002-2003)

Avaliou-se a influência exercida pela aquisição de calorias de açúcar sobre a participação calórica dos demais macronutrientes da dieta. As estimativas deste estudo são baseadas em dados da Pesquisa de Orçamentos Familiares realizada no Brasil pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística entre julho de 2002 e junho de 2003. Modelos de regressão linear múltiplos foram utilizados para estudar a influência das calorias de açúcar sobre a participação calórica de cada um dos macronutrientes na aquisição domiciliar de alimentos com o controle do valor calórico total da aquisição de alimentos e variáveis sócio-demográficas. Cada caloria adquirida de açúcar eleva em 0,3 caloria a participação de gorduras na aquisição domiciliar de alimentos e diminui em 0,07 a participação de proteínas. Cada caloria de açúcar procedente de alimentos processados aumenta em 1,6 caloria a participação de gorduras e em 0,4 caloria de ácidos graxos saturados e diminui em 0,8 caloria a participação de outros carboidratos que não o açúcar. Os resultados encontrados trazem novas evidências sobre o papel prejudicial do açúcar à saúde humana.

Sustentabilidade financeira e econômica do gasto público em saúde no nível municipal: reflexões a partir de dados de municípios mato-grossenses

O financiamento do SUS é regido pelo modelo de federalismo fiscal, pelas regras de partilha do Orçamento da Seguridade Social (OSS), por normas do Ministério da Saúde, e pela Emenda Constitucional nº. 29 (EC-29), que vincula à saúde recursos dos entes federados brasileiros. Discute-se aqui a sustentabilidade do gasto público com saúde no nível municipal. Foram estudados 21 municípios, utilizando-se dados dos balanços municipais. De 1996 a 2006 as receitas correntes gerais per capita subiram 280% acima da inflação acumulada e do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) nacional, variando conforme o porte do município, o qual também definiu a composição dos orçamentos municipais. Já o orçamento que conforma a base da EC-29 elevou-se bem menos (178%), impondo limitações ao incremento da contrapartida municipal em saúde. Acredita-se que o observado nesses municípios se reproduza em milhares de municípios brasileiros e comprometa a capacidade de investimento municipal em saúde, principalmente a partir de 2008. A situação ainda pode se agravar tendo em vista a extinção da Contribuição Provisória sobre a Movimentação ou Transmissão de Valores e de Créditos e Direitos de Natureza Financeira (CPMF), a tramitação dos Projetos de Lei nº. 306/08 e nº. 233/08, e a recessão mundial, a partir da crise do sistema financeiro norte-americano.