Performance of balanced two-stage empirical predictors of realized cluster latent values from finite populations: A simulation study

Predictors of random effects are usually based on the popular mixed effects (ME) model developed under the assumption that the sample is obtained from a conceptual infinite population; such predictors are employed even when the actual population is finite. Two alternatives that incorporate the finite nature of the population are obtained from the superpopulation model proposed by Scott and Smith (1969. Estimation in multi-stage surveys. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 64, 830-840) or from the finite population mixed model recently proposed by Stanek and Singer (2004. Predicting random effects from finite population clustered samples with response error. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 99, 1119-1130). Predictors derived under the latter model with the additional assumptions that all variance components are known and that within-cluster variances are equal have smaller mean squared error (MSE) than the competitors based on either the ME or Scott and Smith`s models. As population variances are rarely known, we propose method of moment estimators to obtain empirical predictors and conduct a simulation study to evaluate their performance. The results suggest that the finite population mixed model empirical predictor is more stable than its competitors since, in terms of MSE, it is either the best or the second best and when second best, its performance lies within acceptable limits. When both cluster and unit intra-class correlation coefficients are very high (e.g., 0.95 or more), the performance of the empirical predictors derived under the three models is similar. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk-based decision making method for maintenance policy selection of thermal power plant equipment

This study presents a decision-making method for maintenance policy selection of power plants equipment. The method is based on risk analysis concepts. The method first step consists in identifying critical equipment both for power plant operational performance and availability based on risk concepts. The second step involves the proposal of a potential maintenance policy that could be applied to critical equipment in order to increase its availability. The costs associated with each potential maintenance policy must be estimated, including the maintenance costs and the cost of failure that measures the critical equipment failure consequences for the power plant operation. Once the failure probabilities and the costs of failures are estimated, a decision-making procedure is applied to select the best maintenance policy. The decision criterion is to minimize the equipment cost of failure, considering the costs and likelihood of occurrence of failure scenarios. The method is applied to the analysis of a lubrication oil system used in gas turbines journal bearings. The turbine has more than 150 MW nominal output, installed in an open cycle thermoelectric power plant. A design modification with the installation of a redundant oil pump is proposed for lubricating oil system availability improvement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Second-order model for remote and close-up short-circuit faults currents on DC traction supply

A technique to calculate the current waveform for both close-up and remote short-circuit faults on DC supplied railways and subways is presented. Exact DC short-circuit current calculation is best performed by sophisticated computer transient simulations. However, an accurate simplified calculation method based on second-order approximation which can be easily executed with the help of a calculator or a spreadsheet program is proposed.

Primary immunodeficiency diseases in Latin America: Proceedings of the Second Latin American Society for Immunodeficiencies (LASID) Advisory Board

Early diagnosis and appropriate therapy are essential for the best prognosis and quality of life in patients with primary immunodeficiency diseases (PIDDs). Experts from several Latin American countries have been meeting on a regular basis as part of an ongoing effort to improve the diagnosis and treatment of PIDD in this region. Three programmes are in development that will expand education and training and improve access to testing facilities throughout Latin America. These programmes are: an educational outreach programme (The L-Project); an immunology fellowship programme; and the establishment of a laboratory network to expand access to testing facilities. This report provides the status of these programmes based on the most recent discussions and describes the next steps toward full implementation of these programmes. (C) 2010 SEICAP. Published by Elsevier Espana, S.L. All rights reserved.

An unusual, dwarf new species of Neotropical freshwater stingray, Plesiotrygon nana sp. nov., from the upper and mid Amazon basin: the second species of Plesiotrygon (Chondrichthyes: Potamotrygonidae)

A new species of the relatively poorly known Neotropical freshwater stingray genus Plesiotrygon Rosa, Castello & Thorson, 1987 is described from the main channel and smaller tributaries (Ríos Itaya and Pachitea) of the upper Amazon basin in Peru. The first specimen to be collected, however, was from much farther east in Rio Solimões in 1996, just down-river from Rio Purus (specimen unavailable for this study). Plesiotrygon nana sp. nov., is a very distinctive and unusually small species of freshwater stingray (Potamotrygonidae), described here mostly from three specimens representing different size classes and stages of sexual maturity. Plesiotrygon nana sp. nov., is distinguished from its only congener, P. iwamae Rosa, Castello & Thorson, 1987, by numerous unique features, including: dorsal coloration composed of very fine rosettes or a combination of spots and irregular ocelli; very circular disc and snout; very small and less rhomboidal spiracles; short snout and anterior disc region; narrow mouth and nostrils; denticles on dorsal tail small, scattered, not forming row of enlarged spines; adult and preadult specimens with significantly fewer tooth rows; fewer caudal vertebrae; higher total pectoral radials; very small size, probably not surpassing 250 mm disc length or width, males maturing sexually at around 180 mm disc length and 175 mm disc width; distal coloration of tail posterior to caudal stings usually dark purplish-brown; and features of the ventral lateral-line canals (hyomandibular canal very narrow, infraorbital and supraorbital canals not undulated, supraorbital and infraorbital loops small and narrow, supraorbital loop very short, not extending posteriorly to level of mouth, jugular and posterior infraorbital canals short, not extending caudally to first gill slits, subpleural loop very narrow posteriorly; absence of anterior and posterior subpleural tubules). To provide a foundation for the description of P. nana sp. nov., morphological variation in P. iwamae was examined based on all type specimens as well as newly collected and previously unreported material. Two specimens topotypic with the male paratype of P. nana sp. nov., referred to here as Plesiotrygon cf. iwamae, are also reported. Relationships of the new species to P. iwamae are discussed; further characters indicative of Plesiotrygon monophyly are proposed, but the genus may still not be valid. Plesiotrygon nana sp. nov., is commercialized with some regularity in the international aquarium trade from Iquitos (Peru), an alarming circumstance because nothing is known of its biology or conservation requirements.

Second record of bioluminescence in larvae of Xantholinus Dejean (Staphylinidae, Xantholinini) from Brazil

Second record of bioluminescence in larvae of Xantholinus Dejean, (Staphylinidae, Xantholinini) from Brazil. Bioluminescent Xantholinus larvae (Xantholinini, Staphylinidae) were collected in the Cerrado biome of Mato Grosso state, Brazil. These larvae are morphologically similar to the first bioluminescent larvae of this genus collected in the Atlantic Forest in São Paulo state; however they differ by their bioluminescent emission.

A new consensus for Trypanosoma cruzi intraspecific nomenclature: second revision meeting recommends TcI to TcVI

In an effort to unify the nomenclature of Trypanosoma cruzi, the causative agent of Chagas disease, an updated system was agreed upon at the Second Satellite Meeting. A consensus was reached that T. cruzi strains should be referred to by six discrete typing units (T. cruzi I-VI). The goal of a unified nomenclature is to improve communication within the scientific community involved in T. cruzi research. The justification and implications will be presented in a subsequent detailed report.

Determinação de ácido acéttico em amostra de vinagre adulterada com ácido clorídrico - um experimento integrado de titulação potenciométrica e condutométrica

The determination of acetic acid in vinegar adulterated sample using simultaneous potentiometric and condutometric titrations was used as an example of integrated experiment in instrumental analysis. An Excel® spreadsheet, which allows the entry of simultaneous data and the construction of the superimposed experimental curves (condutometric, potentiometric, first and second derivative potentiometric curve and, distribution diagrama of the acetic species as function of pH), was used as powerful tool to discuss the fundamental concepts involved in each technique and choose the best of them to quantify, without mutual interference, H3CCOOH and HCl in vinegar adulterated sample.

Vinculação determinística de Bancos de Dados sobre mortalidade por Aids

A vinculação determinística de bancos de dados sobre mortalidade por aids tem apresentado problemas causados por falhas nos arquivos. Assim, os objetivos deste estudo foram: avaliar o desempenho da vinculação determinística em bancos de óbito por aids do Programa de Aprimoramento das Informações de Mortalidade no Município de São Paulo (PRO-AIM) e da Fundação SEADE entre os anos de 2000 e 2004 e estimar a cobertura de cada banco. Utilizou-se a rotina merge de um software para vincular os bancos. A primeira etapa pareou os registros automaticamente e, na segunda etapa, cada banco foi conferido para localizar novos pares. Estimaram-se os óbitos pela soma entre casos pareados e não pareados para calcular a cobertura dos bancos. A primeira etapa da vinculação identificou 91,6% dos pares. A segunda etapa adicionou 457 pares. O total de óbitos foi estimado em 5.855, com cobertura de 97,1% do PRO-AIM e 96% do SEADE. O uso da vinculação determinística cobriu grande parte dos casos. O banco do PRO-AIM proporcionou a maior cobertura, com maior quantidade de informações completas e melhor localização geográfica dos casos.

Lisina digestível e zinco orgânico para frangos de corte machos na fase de 22 a 42 dias de idade

Os efeitos dietéticos de lisina digestível e zinco quelato para frangos de corte machos entre 22 e 42 dias de idade foram avaliados em dois ensaios experimentais. Adotou-se o delineamento inteiramente casualizado em arranjo fatorial 5 × 2, com cinco níveis de lisina (0,841; 0,876; 0,997; 1,022 e 1,030%) e dois de zinco (43 e 243 ppm). No primeiro ensaio, utilizaram-se 900 aves com peso médio inicial de 957,4 g distribuídas em parcelas experimentais de 30 aves e três repetições e, no segundo ensaio, 180 frangos com peso médio inicial de 866,22 g, divididos em parcelas de três aves e seis repetições. As características avaliadas foram desempenho, rendimento de cortes e composição corporal (1º ensaio), balanço de nitrogênio e digestibilidade aparente das dietas (2º ensaio). Houve interação entre os níveis de lisina e zinco para o ganho de peso, a conversão alimentar, a matéria seca ingerida e o balanço energético. Os rendimentos de peito, coxa e sobrecoxa tiveram aumentos lineares em resposta ao acréscimo no nível de lisina digestível na dieta. O melhor desempenho foi obtido com o nível de 0,997% de lisina digestível (ou 1,134% lisina total) e de 43 ppm de zinco. Para maior rendimento dos cortes, o nível de lisina digestível recomendável deve ser no mínimo 1,002% (ou 1,139% de lisina total), independentemente dos níveis de zinco quelato. A maior inclusão de zinco em dietas para frangos de corte dos 22 aos 42 dias de idade não melhora a utilização da lisina na dieta e aumenta a deposição de gordura corporal.

Modelos de gestão e o SUS

O recente documento do Ministério do Planejamento sobre Fundações Públicas (2005) e a crise da área hospitalar colocaram novamente na agenda do SUS a questão dos modelos de gestão pública. O objetivo deste artigo é situar no contexto das reformas de estado pensadas na década de 90 para o Brasil, as propostas de mudança dos modelos de gestão da administração pública, com foco no processo de implementação do SUS. Essa abordagem trata em primeiro lugar da personalidade jurídica das organizações de saúde na esfera estatal, conceituando o público a partir de seus objetivos; em segundo, discute o contexto as reformas de estado e as mudanças propostas para a administração pública. Os autores entendem que critérios e parâmetros para avaliação institucional devem contemplar quatro aspectos: subordinação à política de saúde; legalidade; eficiência gerencial e capacidade de controle. A partir do quadro de referencia geral elaborou-se uma análise comparativa em relação à proposta das fundações públicas de direito privado. Na análise comparativa das características desse tipo de entidade proposta para gestão hospitalar, observam-se semelhanças com a proposta de Organizações Sociais. Fundação Estatal e Contrato de Gestão podem ser vistos como modelos que possibilitam modernizar o Estado, além de re-introduzirem o tema da reforma hospitalar na agenda governamental brasileira

Reactivity, photolability, and computational studies of the ruthenium nitrosyl complex with a substituted cyclam fac-[Ru(NO)Cl(2)(kappa(3)N(4),N(8),N(11)(1-carboxypropyl)cyclam)]Cl center dot H(2)O

Chemical reactivity, photolability, and computational studies of the ruthenium nitrosyl complex with a substituted cyclam, fac-[Ru(NO)Cl(2)(kappa(3)N(4),N(8),N(11)(1-carboxypropyl)cyclam)]Cl center dot H(2)O ((1-carboxypropyl) cyclam = 3-(1,4,8,11-tetraazacyclotetradecan-1-yl) propionic acid)), (I) are described. Chloride ligands do not undergo aquation reactions (at 25 degrees C, pH 3). The rate of nitric oxide (NO) dissociation (k(obs-NO)) upon reduction of I is 2.8 s(-1) at 25 +/- 1 degrees C (in 0.5 mol L(-1) HCl), which is close to the highest value found for related complexes. The uncoordinated carboxyl of I has a pK(a) of similar to 3.3, which is close to that of the carboxyl of the non coordinated (1-carboxypropyl) cyclam (pK(a) = 3.4). Two additional pK(a) values were found for I at similar to 8.0 and similar to 11.5. Upon electrochemical reduction or under irradiation with light (lambda(irr) = 350 or 520 nm; pH 7.4), I releases NO in aqueous solution. The cyclam ring N bound to the carboxypropyl group is not coordinated, resulting in a fac configuration that affects the properties and chemical reactivities of I, especially as NO donor, compared with analogous trans complexes. Among the computational models tested, the B3LYP/ECP28MDF, cc-pVDZ resulted in smaller errors for the geometry of I. The computational data helped clarify the experimental acid-base equilibria and indicated the most favourable site for the second deprotonation, which follows that of the carboxyl group. Furthermore, it showed that by changing the pH it is possible to modulate the electron density of I with deprotonation. The calculated NO bond length and the Ru/NO charge ratio indicated that the predominant canonical structure is [Ru(III)NO], but the Ru-NO bond angles and bond index (b.i.) values were less clear; the angles suggested that [Ru(II)NO(+)] could contribute to the electronic structure of I and b.i. values indicated a contribution from [Ru(IV)NO(-)]. Considering that some experimental data are consistent with a [Ru(II)NO(+)] description, while others are in agreement with [Ru(III)NO], the best description for I would be a linear combination of the three canonical forms, with a higher weight for [Ru(II)NO(+)] and [Ru(III)NO].

Brazilian foreign policy: Old and new paths as regards institutional aspects, multilateralism and foreign policy towards the South

This paper emphasizes the important changes in Brazilian foreign policy after Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took tip the power in 2002. The paper defends the idea that it is not possible to argue that there were deep changes in comparison to Cardoso's administration. However, evidence shows that new things are happening as regards the design of a more active and clear foreign action line which led to institutional changes and to more incisive multilateral paths. This results both from the political profile of the direct operators of foreign policy and the aims of lite presidential diplomacy, The hypothesis dealt with on this paper consists on the fact that Lula's administration has not fully broken with the old administration practices, however the aims of global and regional integration are being plotted more clearly and with a higher degree of activism. This becomes clear in three aspects of the Brazilian foreign policy: the institutional framework, the practice of multilateralism and the foreign policy towards the South, the three topics analyzed in this paper.

Cost risk benefit analysis to support chemoprophylaxis policy for travellers to malaria endemic countries

Background: In a number of malaria endemic regions, tourists and travellers face a declining risk of travel associated malaria, in part due to successful malaria control. Many millions of visitors to these regions are recommended, via national and international policy, to use chemoprophylaxis which has a well recognized morbidity profile. To evaluate whether current malaria chemo-prophylactic policy for travellers is cost effective when adjusted for endemic transmission risk and duration of exposure. a framework, based on partial cost-benefit analysis was used Methods: Using a three component model combining a probability component, a cost component and a malaria risk component, the study estimated health costs avoided through use of chemoprophylaxis and costs of disease prevention (including adverse events and pre-travel advice for visits to five popular high and low malaria endemic regions) and malaria transmission risk using imported malaria cases and numbers of travellers to malarious countries. By calculating the minimal threshold malaria risk below which the economic costs of chemoprophylaxis are greater than the avoided health costs we were able to identify the point at which chemoprophylaxis would be economically rational. Results: The threshold incidence at which malaria chemoprophylaxis policy becomes cost effective for UK travellers is an accumulated risk of 1.13% assuming a given set of cost parameters. The period a travellers need to remain exposed to achieve this accumulated risk varied from 30 to more than 365 days, depending on the regions intensity of malaria transmission. Conclusions: The cost-benefit analysis identified that chemoprophylaxis use was not a cost-effective policy for travellers to Thailand or the Amazon region of Brazil, but was cost-effective for travel to West Africa and for those staying longer than 45 days in India and Indonesia.

Qualitative Analysis of the Interdisciplinary Interaction between Data Analysis Specialists and Novice Clinical Researchers

Background: The inherent complexity of statistical methods and clinical phenomena compel researchers with diverse domains of expertise to work in interdisciplinary teams, where none of them have a complete knowledge in their counterpart's field. As a result, knowledge exchange may often be characterized by miscommunication leading to misinterpretation, ultimately resulting in errors in research and even clinical practice. Though communication has a central role in interdisciplinary collaboration and since miscommunication can have a negative impact on research processes, to the best of our knowledge, no study has yet explored how data analysis specialists and clinical researchers communicate over time. Methods/Principal Findings: We conducted qualitative analysis of encounters between clinical researchers and data analysis specialists (epidemiologist, clinical epidemiologist, and data mining specialist). These encounters were recorded and systematically analyzed using a grounded theory methodology for extraction of emerging themes, followed by data triangulation and analysis of negative cases for validation. A policy analysis was then performed using a system dynamics methodology looking for potential interventions to improve this process. Four major emerging themes were found. Definitions using lay language were frequently employed as a way to bridge the language gap between the specialties. Thought experiments presented a series of ""what if'' situations that helped clarify how the method or information from the other field would behave, if exposed to alternative situations, ultimately aiding in explaining their main objective. Metaphors and analogies were used to translate concepts across fields, from the unfamiliar to the familiar. Prolepsis was used to anticipate study outcomes, thus helping specialists understand the current context based on an understanding of their final goal. Conclusion/Significance: The communication between clinical researchers and data analysis specialists presents multiple challenges that can lead to errors.