Bayesian Analysis for Nonlinear Regression Model Under Skewed Errors, with Application in Growth Curves

We have considered a Bayesian approach for the nonlinear regression model by replacing the normal distribution on the error term by some skewed distributions, which account for both skewness and heavy tails or skewness alone. The type of data considered in this paper concerns repeated measurements taken in time on a set of individuals. Such multiple observations on the same individual generally produce serially correlated outcomes. Thus, additionally, our model does allow for a correlation between observations made from the same individual. We have illustrated the procedure using a data set to study the growth curves of a clinic measurement of a group of pregnant women from an obstetrics clinic in Santiago, Chile. Parameter estimation and prediction were carried out using appropriate posterior simulation schemes based in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Besides the deviance information criterion (DIC) and the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO), we suggest the use of proper scoring rules based on the posterior predictive distribution for comparing models. For our data set, all these criteria chose the skew-t model as the best model for the errors. These DIC and CPO criteria are also validated, for the model proposed here, through a simulation study. As a conclusion of this study, the DIC criterion is not trustful for this kind of complex model.

Non-nutritive sucking scoring system for preterm newborns

Aim: To validate a non-nutritive sucking (NNS) scoring system for oral feeding in preterm newborns (PTNB). Methods: A cohort study was carried out in two phases. In phase one of the study, 22 mastered speech-language pathologists received the protocol and procedure for a NNS scoring system to evaluate the content and presentation of the form and to define the grading scale. In phase two, six speech-language pathologists evaluated 51 PTNBs weekly, using the defined scoring system. Setting: This study was carried out in the Nursery Annex to the Maternity at the Intensive and Neonatal Pediatrics Service, Instituto da Crianca, Hospital das Clinicas, School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo (FMUSP) during the period from May 2004 to May 2006. Participants: A total of 28 speech-language pathologist experts and 51 PTNBs. Results: In the first phase of the study, 22 speech-language pathologists selected the criteria, utilized in the NNS evaluation with 80% agreement. In the second phase of the study, the NNS evaluation was carried out on 51 PTNB, and a scoring system of 50 points was proposed, which corresponds to the smallest number of false positive and negative results regarding oral feeding ability. Conclusion: An NNS evaluation system was validated that was able to indicate when oral feeding could safely begin in PTNBs with a high level of agreement among the speech-language pathologists who have participated.

MODELLING OF HIGH-PRESSURE PHASE EQUILIBRIUM IN SYSTEMS OF INTEREST IN THE FOOD ENGINEERING FIELD USING THE PENG-ROBINSON EQUATION OF STATE WITH TWO DIFFERENT MIXING RULES

In this work, thermodynamic models for fitting the phase equilibrium of binary systems were applied, aiming to predict the high pressure phase equilibrium of multicomponent systems of interest in the food engineering field, comparing the results generated by the models with new experimental data and with those from the literature. Two mixing rules were used with the Peng-Robinson equation of state, one with the mixing rule of van der Waals and the other with the composition-dependent mixing rule of Mathias et al. The systems chosen are of fundamental importance in food industries, such as the binary systems CO(2)-limonene, CO(2)-citral and CO(2)-linalool, and the ternary systems CO(2)-Limonene-Citral and CO(2)-Limonene-Linalool, where high pressure phase equilibrium knowledge is important to extract and fractionate citrus fruit essential oils. For the CO(2)-limonene system, some experimental data were also measured in this work. The results showed the high capability of the model using the composition-dependent mixing rule to model the phase equilibrium behavior of these systems.

Poly-bagging predictors for classification modelling for credit scoring

Credit scoring modelling comprises one of the leading formal tools for supporting the granting of credit. Its core objective consists of the generation of a score by means of which potential clients can be listed in the order of the probability of default. A critical factor is whether a credit scoring model is accurate enough in order to provide correct classification of the client as a good or bad payer. In this context the concept of bootstraping aggregating (bagging) arises. The basic idea is to generate multiple classifiers by obtaining the predicted values from the fitted models to several replicated datasets and then combining them into a single predictive classification in order to improve the classification accuracy. In this paper we propose a new bagging-type variant procedure, which we call poly-bagging, consisting of combining predictors over a succession of resamplings. The study is derived by credit scoring modelling. The proposed poly-bagging procedure was applied to some different artificial datasets and to a real granting of credit dataset up to three successions of resamplings. We observed better classification accuracy for the two-bagged and the three-bagged models for all considered setups. These results lead to a strong indication that the poly-bagging approach may promote improvement on the modelling performance measures, while keeping a flexible and straightforward bagging-type structure easy to implement. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

D*D rho vertex from QCD sum rules

We calculate the form factors and the coupling constant in the D*D rho vertex in the framework of QCD sum rules. We evaluate the three-point correlation functions of the vertex considering D, rho and D* mesons off-shell. The form factors obtained are very different but give the same coupling constant: g(D*D rho) = 4.3 +/- 0.9 GeV(-1). (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

QCD sum rules for the production of the X(3872) as a mixed molecule-charmonium state in B meson decay

We use QCD sum rules to calculate the branching ratio for the production of the meson X(3872) in the decay B -> X(3872)K, assumed to be a mixture between charmonium and exotic molecular vertical bar c (q) over bar vertical bar vertical bar q (c) over bar vertical bar states with J(PC) = 1(++). We find that in a small range for the values of the mixing angle, 5 degrees <= theta <= 13 degrees, we get the branching ratio B(B -> XK) = (1.00 +/- 0.68) x 10(-5), which is in agreement with the experimental upper limit. This result is compatible with the analysis of the mass and decay width of the mode J/psi(n pi) and the radiative decay mode J/psi gamma performed in the same approach. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

QCD sum rules study of the J(PC)=1(- -) charmonium Y mesons

We use QCD sum rules to test the nature of the recently observed mesons Y(4260), Y(4350) and Y(4660), assumed to be exotic four-quark (c (c) over barq (q) over bar) or (c (c) over bars (s) over bar) states with J(PC)= 1(--). We work at leading order in alpha(s), consider the contributions of higher dimension condensates and keep terms which are linear in the strange quark mass m(s). We find for the (c (c) over bars (s) over bar) state a mass in m(Y) = (4.65 +/- 0.10) GeV which is compatible with the experimental candidate Y (4660), while for the (c (c) over barq (q) over bar) state we find a mass in m(Y) = (4.49 +/- 0.11) GeV, which is still consistent with the mass of the experimental candidate Y(4350). With the tetraquark structure we are working we cannot explain the Y(4260) as a tetraquark state. We also consider molecular D(s0)(D) over bar (s)* and D(0)(D) over bar* states. For the D(s0)(D) over bar (s)* molecular state we get m(Ds0 (D) over bars*) = (4.42 +/- 0.10) GeV which is consistent, considering the errors, with the mass of the meson Y(4350) and for the D(0)(D) over bar* molecular state we get m(D0 (D) over bar*) = (4.27 +/- 0.10) GeV in excellent agreement with the mass of the meson Y(4260). (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

QCD sum rules study of the meson Z(+)(4430)

We use QCD sum rules to study the recently observed meson Z(+)(4430), considered as a D*D-1 molecule with J(P) = 0(-). We consider the contributions of condensates up to dimension eight and work at leading order in alpha(s). We get m(Z) = (4.40 +/- 0.10) GeV in a very good agreement with the experimental value. We also make predictions for the analogous mesons Z(s) and Z(bb) considered as D-s*D-1 and B*B-1 molecules, respectively. For Z(s) we predict mZ(s) = (4.70 +/- 0.06) GeV, which is above the D-s* D-1 threshold, indicating that it is probably a very broad state and, therefore, difficult to observe experimentally. For Z(bb) we predict m(Zbb) = (10.74 +/- 0.12) GeV, in agreement with quark model predictions. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

rho D*D* vertex from QCD sum rules

We calculate the form factors and the coupling constant in the rho D*D* vertex in the framework of QCD sum rules. We evaluate the three point correlation functions of the vertex considering both rho and D* mesons off-shell. The form factors obtained are very different but give the same coupling constant: g rho D*D* = 6.60 +/- 0.31. This number is 50% larger than what we would expect from SU(4) estimates. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.