82 resultados para receiver operating characteristic curve

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo (BDPI/USP)


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Background: The criteria and timing for nerve surgery in infants with obstetric brachial plexopathy remain controversial. Our aim was to develop a new method for early prognostic assessment to assist this decision process. Methods: Fifty-four patients with unilateral obstetric brachial plexopathy who were ten to sixty days old underwent bilateral motor-nerve-conduction studies of the axillary, musculocutaneous, proximal radial, distal radial, median, and ulnar nerves. The ratio between the amplitude of the compound muscle action potential of the affected limb and that of the healthy side was called the axonal viability index. The patients were followed and classified in three groups according to the clinical outcome. We analyzed the receiver operating characteristic curve of each index to define the best cutoff point to detect patients with a poor recovery. Results: The best cutoff points on the axonal viability index for each nerve (and its sensitivity and specificity) were <10% (88% and 89%, respectively) for the axillary nerve, 0% (88% and 73%) for the musculocutaneous nerve, <20% (82% and 97%) for the proximal radial nerve, <50% (82% and 97%) for the distal radial nerve, and <50% (59% and 97%) for the ulnar nerve. The indices from the proximal radial, distal radial, and ulnar nerves had better specificities compared with the most frequently used clinical criterion: absence of biceps function at three months of age. Conclusions: The axonal viability index yields an earlier and more specific prognostic estimation of obstetric brachial plexopathy than does the clinical criterion of biceps function, and we believe it may be useful in determining surgical indications in these patients.

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PURPOSE most people with mental disorders receive treatment in primary care. The charts developed by the Dartmouth Primary Care Cooperative Research Network (COOP) and the World Organization of National Colleges, Academies, and Academic Associations of General Practitioners/Family Physicians (WONCA) have not yet been evaluated as a screen for these disorders, using a structured psychiatric interview by an expert or considering diagnoses other than depression. We evaluated the validity and feasibility of the COOP/WONCA Charts as a mental disorders screen by comparing them both with other questionnaires previously validated and with the assessment of a mental health specialist using a structured diagnostic interview. METHODS We trained community health workers and nurse assistants working in a collaborative mental health care model to administer the COOP/WONCA Charts, the 20-item Self-Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20), and the World Health Organization Five Well-Being Index (WHO-5) to 120 primary care patients. A psychiatrist blinded to the patients' results on these questionnaires administered the SCID, or Structured Clinical Interview for the DSM-IV (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition). RESULTS The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was at least 0.80 for single items, a 3-item combination, and the total score of the COOP/WONCA Charts, as well as for the SRQ-20 and the WHO-5, for screening both for all mental disorders and for depressive disorders. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of these measures ranged between 0.77 and 0.92. Community health workers and nurse assistants rated the understandability, ease of use, and clinical relevance of all 3 questionnaires as satisfactory. CONCLUSIONS One-time assessment of patients with the COOP/WONCA Charts is a valid and feasible option for screening for mental disorders by primary care teams.

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive validity of the Braden Scale for Predicting Pressure Sore Risk in elderly residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs) in Brazil. The determination of the cutoff score for the Brazilian population is important for the comparison between Brazilian and international studies and establishment of guidelines for prevention of pressure ulcers in our health care facilities. This is the first study of its kind in Brazil. This was a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study conducted with 233 LTCF residents aged 60 and over who underwent complete skin examination and Braden Scale rating every 2 days for 3 months. Two groups of patients were considered: the total group (N = 233) and risk group (n = 94, total scores <= 18). Data from the first and last assessments were analyzed for sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios. The best results were obtained for the total group, with cutoff scores of 18 and 17, sensitivity of 75.9% and 74.1%, specificity of 70.3% and 75.4%, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.79 and 0.81 at the first and last assessments, respectively. For the risk group, the cutoff scores of 16 (first assessment) and 13 (last assessment) were associated with a smaller AUC-ROC and, therefore, lower predictive accuracy. The Braden Scale showed good predictive validity in elderly LTCF residents. (Geriatr Nurs 2010;31:95-104)

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For percentage of body fat (%BF), there are no internationally accepted cutoffs. The primary function of body fat cutoffs should be to identify not only excessive body fatness, but also the increased risk of unhealthy outcomes, such as hypertension. The purpose of this study was to analyze the accuracy of different %BF and body mass index (BMI) cutoffs as screening measures for EBP in pediatric populations. It was a cross-sectional study with a sample of 358 male subjects from 8 to 18 years old. BP was measured by the oscilometric method, and body composition was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). The accuracy of three reference tables used for body fat cutoffs was assessed. The three body fat reference tables were highly specific, but insensitive, for elevated BP screening. For elevated BP screening, all body fat cutoffs presented similar sensitivity (range=48.3-53.7%) and specificity (range=79.2-84.1%). The body fat cutoffs performed no better than BMI in screening of children and adolescents at risk of elevated BP (EBP). BMI seems a more attractive tool for this function, as it performed similarly and can be applied in large surveys and with lower costs. Hypertension Research (2011) 34, 963-967; doi:10.1038/hr.2011.61; published online 26 May 2011

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Aims To verify whether spectral components of atrial electrograms (AE) during sinus rhythm (SR) correlate with cardiac ganglionated plexus (GP) sites. Methods and results Thirteen patients undergoing atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation were prospectively enrolled. Prior to radio frequency application, endocardial AE were recorded with a sequential point-by-point approach. Electrical stimuli were delivered at 20 Hz, amplitude 100 V, and pulse width of 4 ms. A vagal response was defined as a high-frequency stimulation (HFS) evoked atrioventricular block or a prolongation of RR interval. Spectral analysis was performed on single AE during SR, sampling rate of 1000 Hz, Hanning window. Overall, 1488 SR electrograms were analysed from 186 different left atrium sites, 129 of them corresponding to negative vagal response sites, and 57 to positive response sites. The electrogram duration and the number of deflections were similar in positive and negative response sites. Spectral power density of sites with vagal response was lower between 26 and 83 Hz and higher between 107 and 200 Hz compared with negative response sites. The area between 120 and 170 Hz normalized to the total spectrum area was tested as a diagnostic parameter. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated that an area120-170/area(total) value >0.14 identified vagal sites with 70.9% sensitivity and 72.1% specificity. Conclusion Spectral analysis of AE during SR in sites that correspond to the anatomical location of the GP is feasible and may be a simpler method of mapping the cardiac autonomic nervous system, compared with the HFS technique.

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A warning system for sooty blotch and flyspeck (SBFS) of apple, developed in the southeastern United States, uses cumulative hours of leaf wetness duration (LWD) to predict the timing of the first appearance of signs. In the Upper Midwest United States, however, this warning system has resulted in sporadic disease control failures. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether the warning system`s algorithm could be modified to provide more reliable assessment of SBFS risk. Hourly LWD, rainfall, relative humidity (RH), and temperature data were collected from orchards in Iowa, North Carolina, and Wisconsin in 2005 and 2006. Timing of the first appearance of SBFS signs was determined by weekly scouting. Preliminary analysis using scatterplots and boxplots suggested that Cumulative hours of RH >= 97% could be a useful predictor of SBFS appearance. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to compare the predictive performance of cumulative LWD and cumulative hours of RH >= 97%. Cumulative hours of RH >= 97% was a more conservative and accurate predictor than cumulative LWD for 15 site years in the Upper Midwest, but not for four site years in North Carolina. Performance of the SBFS warning system in the Upper Midwest and climatically similar regions may be improved if cumulative hours of RH >= 97% were substituted for cumulative LWD to predict the first appearance of SBFS.

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Objectives: To describe current practice for the discontinuation of continuous renal replacement therapy in a multinational setting and to identify variables associated with successful discontinuation. The approach to discontinue continuous renal replacement therapy may affect patient outcomes. However, there is lack of information on how and under what conditions continuous renal replacement therapy is discontinued. Design: Post hoc analysis of a prospective observational study. Setting. Fifty-four intensive care units in 23 countries. Patients: Five hundred twenty-nine patients (52.6%) who survived initial therapy among 1006 patients treated with continuous renal replacement therapy. Interventions: None. Measurements and Main Results., Three hundred thirteen patients were removed successfully from continuous renal replacement therapy and did not require any renal replacement therapy for at least 7 days and were classified as the ""success"" group and the rest (216 patients) were classified as the ""repeat-RRT"" (renal replacement therapy) group. Patients in the ""success"" group had lower hospital mortality (28.5% vs. 42.7%, p < .0001) compared with patients in the ""repeat-RRT"" group. They also had lower creatinine and urea concentrations and a higher urine output at the time of stopping continuous renal replacement therapy. Multivariate logistic regression analysis for successful discontinuation of continuous renal replacement therapy identified urine output (during the 24 hrs before stopping continuous renal replacement therapy: odds ratio, 1.078 per 100 mL/day increase) and creatinine (odds ratio, 0.996 per mu mol/L increase) as significant predictors of successful cessation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to predict successful discontinuation of continuous renal replacement therapy was 0.808 for urine output and 0.635 for creatinine. The predictive ability of urine output was negatively affected by the use of diuretics (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.671 with diuretics and 0.845 without diuretics). Conclusions. We report on the current practice of discontinuing continuous renal replacement therapy in a multinational setting. Urine output at the time of initial cessation (if continuous renal replacement therapy was the most important predictor of successful discontinuation, especially if occurring without the administration of diuretics. (Crit Care Med 2009; 37:2576-2582)

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Background: The accuracy of multidetector computed tomographic (CT) angiography involving 64 detectors has not been well established. Methods: We conducted a multicenter study to examine the accuracy of 64-row, 0.5-mm multidetector CT angiography as compared with conventional coronary angiography in patients with suspected coronary artery disease. Nine centers enrolled patients who underwent calcium scoring and multidetector CT angiography before conventional coronary angiography. In 291 patients with calcium scores of 600 or less, segments 1.5 mm or more in diameter were analyzed by means of CT and conventional angiography at independent core laboratories. Stenoses of 50% or more were considered obstructive. The area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate diagnostic accuracy relative to that of conventional angiography and subsequent revascularization status, whereas disease severity was assessed with the use of the modified Duke Coronary Artery Disease Index. Results: A total of 56% of patients had obstructive coronary artery disease. The patient-based diagnostic accuracy of quantitative CT angiography for detecting or ruling out stenoses of 50% or more according to conventional angiography revealed an AUC of 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90 to 0.96), with a sensitivity of 85% (95% CI, 79 to 90), a specificity of 90% (95% CI, 83 to 94), a positive predictive value of 91% (95% CI, 86 to 95), and a negative predictive value of 83% (95% CI, 75 to 89). CT angiography was similar to conventional angiography in its ability to identify patients who subsequently underwent revascularization: the AUC was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.79 to 0.88) for multidetector CT angiography and 0.82 (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.86) for conventional angiography. A per-vessel analysis of 866 vessels yielded an AUC of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.88 to 0.93). Disease severity ascertained by CT and conventional angiography was well correlated (r=0.81; 95% CI, 0.76 to 0.84). Two patients had important reactions to contrast medium after CT angiography. Conclusions: Multidetector CT angiography accurately identifies the presence and severity of obstructive coronary artery disease and subsequent revascularization in symptomatic patients. The negative and positive predictive values indicate that multidetector CT angiography cannot replace conventional coronary angiography at present. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00738218.).

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A risk score model was developed based in a population of 1,224 individuals from the general population without known diabetes aging 35 years or more from an urban Brazilian population sample in order to select individuals who should be screened in subsequent testing and improve the efficacy of public health assurance. External validation was performed in a second, independent, population from a different city ascertained through a similar epidemiological protocol. The risk score was developed by multiple logistic regression and model performance and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. Model`s capacity of predicting fasting blood glucose levels was tested analyzing data from a 5-year follow-up protocol conducted in the general population. Items independently and significantly associated with diabetes were age, BMI and known hypertension. Sensitivity, specificity and proportion of further testing necessary for the best cutoff value were 75.9, 66.9 and 37.2%, respectively. External validation confirmed the model`s adequacy (AUC equal to 0.72). Finally, model score was also capable of predicting fasting blood glucose progression in non-diabetic individuals in a 5-year follow-up period. In conclusion, this simple diabetes risk score was able to identify individuals with an increased likelihood of having diabetes and it can be used to stratify subpopulations in which performing of subsequent tests is necessary and probably cost-effective.

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The Direct Assessment of Functional Status-Revised (DAFS-R) is an instrument developed to objectively measure functional capacities required for independent living. The objective of this study was to translate and culturally adapt the DAFS-R for Brazilian Portuguese (DAFS-BR) and to evaluate its reliability and validity. The DAFS-BR was administered to 89 older patients classified previously as normal controls, mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer`s disease (AD). The results indicated good internal consistency (Cronbach`s alpha = 0.78) in the total sample. The DAFS-BR showed high interobserver reliability (0.996; p < .001) as well as test-retest stability over 1-week interval (0.995; p < .001). Correlation between the DAFS-BR total score and the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE) was moderate and significant (r = -.65, p < .001) in the total sample, whereas it did not reach statistical significance within each diagnostic group. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses suggested that DAFS-BR has good sensitivity and specificity to identify MCI and AD. Results suggest that DAFS-BR can document degrees of severity of functional impairment among Brazilian older adults.

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Objective: Although suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, clinicians and researchers lack a data-driven method to assess the risk of suicide attempts. This study reports the results of an analysis of a large cross-national epidemiologic survey database that estimates the 12-month prevalence of suicidal behaviors, identifies risk factors for suicide attempts, and combines these factors to create a risk index for 12-month suicide attempts separately for developed and developing countries. Method: Data come from the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys (conducted 2001-2007), in which 108,705 adults from 21 countries were interviewed using the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview. The survey assessed suicidal behaviors and potential risk factors across multiple domains, including socio-demographic characteristics, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, DSM-IV disorders, and history of suicidal behavior. Results: Twelve-month prevalence estimates of suicide ideation, plans, and attempts are 2.0%, 0.6%, and 0.3%, respectively, for developed countries and 2.1%, 0.7%, and 0.4%, respectively, for developing countries. Risk factors for suicidal behaviors in both developed and developing countries include female sex, younger age, lower education and income, unmarried status, unemployment, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, and presence of diverse 12-month DSM-IV mental disorders. Combining risk factors from multiple domains produced risk indices that accurately predicted 12-month suicide attempts in both developed and developing countries (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.74-0.80). Conclusions: Suicidal behaviors occur at similar rates in both developed and developing countries. Risk indices assessing multiple domains can predict suicide attempts with fairly good accuracy and may be useful in aiding clinicians in the prediction of these behaviors. J Clin Psychiatry 2010;71(12):1617-1628 (C) Copyright 2010 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

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Data are reported on the background and performance of the K6 screening scale for serious mental illness (SMI) in the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) surveys. The K6 is a six-item scale developed to provide a brief valid screen for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders 4th edition (DSM-IV) SMI based on the criteria in the US ADAMHA Reorganization Act. Although methodological studies have documented good K6 validity in a number of countries, optimal scoring rules have never been proposed. Such rules are presented here based on analysis of K6 data in nationally or regionally representative WMH surveys in 14 countries (combined N = 41,770 respondents). Twelve-month prevalence of DSM-IV SMI was assessed with the fully-structured WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Nested logistic regression analysis was used to generate estimates of the predicted probability of SMI for each respondent from K6 scores, taking into consideration the possibility of variable concordance as a function of respondent age, gender, education, and country. Concordance, assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, was generally substantial (median 0.83; range 0.76-0.89; inter-quartile range 0.81-0.85). Based on this result, optimal scaling rules are presented for use by investigators working with the K6 scale in the countries studied. Copyright (c) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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This study was designed to examine the use of the QuantiFERON-TB Gold assay as an aid in the diagnosis of active pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in Brazilian patients. Using the receiver operating characteristic curve, the cutoff was adjusted to >= 0.20 IU/ml. The sensitivity increased to 86%, with 100% specificity. All TB patients with negative sputum smear microscopy and negative culture results were positive using this test.

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Objective. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic usefulness of ulnar nerve sonography in leprosy neuropathy with electrophysiologic correlation. Methods. Twenty-one consecutive patients with leprosy (12 men and 9 women; mean age +/- SD, 47.7 +/- 17.2 years) and 20 control participants (14 men and 6 women; mean age, 46.5 +/- 16.2 years) were evaluated with sonography. Leprosy diagnosis was established on the basis of clinical, bacteriologic, and histopathologic criteria. The reference standard for ulnar neuropathy in this study was clinical symptoms in patients with proven leprosy The sonographic cross-sectional areas (CSAs) of the ulnar nerve in 3 different regions were obtained. Statistical analyses included Student t tests and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results. The CSAs of the ulnar nerve were significantly larger in the leprosy group than the control group for all regions (P < .01). Sonographic abnormalities in leprosy nerves included focal thickening (90.5%), hypoechoic areas (81%), loss of the fascicular pattern (33.3%), and focal hyperechoic areas (4.7%). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that a maximum CSA cutoff value of 9.8 mm(2) was the best discriminator (sensitivity, 0.91; specificity, 0.90). Three patients with normal electrophysiologic findings had abnormal sonographic findings. Two patients had normal sonographic findings, of which 1 had abnormal electrophysiologic findings, and the other refused electrophysiologic testing. Conclusions. Sonography and electrophysiology were complementary for identifying ulnar nerve neuropathy in patients with leprosy, with clinical symptoms as the reference standard. This reinforces the role of sonography in the investigation of leprosy ulnar neuropathy.

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Context Novel therapies have improved the remission rate in chronic inflammatory disorders including juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Therefore, strategies of tapering therapy and reliable parameters for detecting subclinical inflammation have now become challenging questions. Objectives To analyze whether longer methotrexate treatment during remission of JIA prevents flares after withdrawal of medication and whether specific biomarkers identify patients at risk for flares. Design, Setting, and Patients Prospective, open, multicenter, medication-withdrawal randomized clinical trial including 364 patients (median age, 11.0 years) with JIA recruited in 61 centers from 29 countries between February 2005 and June 2006. Patients were included at first confirmation of clinical remission while continuing medication. At the time of therapy withdrawal, levels of the phagocyte activation marker myeloid-related proteins 8 and 14 heterocomplex (MRP8/14) were determined. Intervention Patients were randomly assigned to continue with methotrexate therapy for either 6 months (group 1 [n = 183]) or 12 months (group 2 [n = 181]) after induction of disease remission. Main Outcome Measures Primary outcome was relapse rate in the 2 treatment groups; secondary outcome was time to relapse. In a prespecified cohort analysis, the prognostic accuracy of MRP8/14 concentrations for the risk of flares was assessed. Results Intention-to-treat analysis of the primary outcome revealed relapse within 24 months after the inclusion into the study in 98 of 183 patients (relapse rate, 56.7%) in group 1 and 94 of 181 (55.6%) in group 2. The odds ratio for group 1 vs group 2 was 1.02 (95% CI, 0.82-1.27; P=.86). The median relapse-free interval after inclusion was 21.0 months in group 1 and 23.0 months in group 2. The hazard ratio for group 1 vs group 2 was 1.07 (95% CI, 0.82-1.41; P=.61). Median follow-up duration after inclusion was 34.2 and 34.3 months in groups 1 and 2, respectively. Levels of MRP8/14 during remission were significantly higher in patients who subsequently developed flares (median, 715 [IQR, 320-1110] ng/mL) compared with patients maintaining stable remission (400 [IQR, 220-800] ng/mL; P=.003). Low MRP8/14 levels indicated a low risk of flares within the next 3 months following the biomarker test (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.62-0.90). Conclusions In patients with JIA in remission, a 12-month vs 6-month withdrawal of methotrexate did not reduce the relapse rate. Higher MRP8/14 concentrations were associated with risk of relapse after discontinuing methotrexate.