Mechanisms Associated with Large Daily Rainfall Events in Northeast Brazil

The mechanisms resulting in large daily rainfall events in Northeast Brazil are analyzed using data filtering to exclude periods longer than 30 days. Composites of circulation fields that include all independent events do not reveal any obvious forcing mechanisms as multiple patterns contribute to Northeast Brazil precipitation variability. To isolate coherent patterns, subsets of events are selected based on anomalies that precede the Northeast Brazil precipitation events at different locations. The results indicate that at 10 degrees S, 40 degrees W, the area of lowest annual rainfall in Brazil, precipitation occurs mainly in association with trailing midlatitude synoptic wave trains originating in either hemisphere. Closer to the equator at 5 degrees S, 37.5 degrees W, an additional convection precursor is found to the west, with a spatial structure consistent with that of a Kelvin wave. Although these two sites are located within only several hundred kilometers of each other and the midlatitude patterns that induce precipitation appear to be quite similar, the dates on which large precipitation anomalies occur at each location are almost entirely independent, pointing to separate forcing mechanisms.

Can the Deforestation Breeze Change the Rainfall in Amazonia? A Case Study for the BR-163 Highway Region

The authors simulated the effects of Amazonian mesoscale deforestation in the boundary layer and in rainfall with the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) model. They found that both the area and shape (with respect to wind incidence) of deforestation and the soil moisture status contributed to the state of the atmosphere during the time scale of several weeks, with distinguishable patterns of temperature, humidity, and rainfall. Deforestation resulted in the development of a three-dimensional thermal cell, the so-called deforestation breeze, slightly shifted downwind to large-scale circulation. The boundary layer was warmer and drier above 1000-m height and was slightly wetter up to 2000-m height. Soil wetness affected the circulation energetics proportionally to the soil dryness (for soil wetness below similar to 0.6). The shape of the deforestation controlled the impact on rainfall. The horizontal strips lined up with the prevailing wind showed a dominant increase in rainfall, significant up to about 60 000 km(2). On the other hand, in the patches aligned in the opposite direction (north-south), there was both increase and decrease in precipitation in two distinct regions, as a result of clearly separated upward and downward branches, which caused the precipitation to increase for patches up to 15 000 km(2). The authors` estimates for the size of deforestation impacting the rainfall contributed to fill up the low spatial resolution in other previous studies.

Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil

This work is an assessment of frequency of extreme values (EVs) of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo. Brazil, over the period 1933-2005, based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. Usually. a GPD model is fitted to a sample of POT Values Selected With a constant threshold. However. in this work we use time-dependent thresholds, composed of relatively large p quantities (for example p of 0.97) of daily rainfall amounts computed from all available data. Samples of POT values were extracted with several Values of p. Four different GPD models (GPD-1, GPD-2, GPD-3. and GDP-4) were fitted to each one of these samples by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The shape parameter was assumed constant for the four models, but time-varying covariates were incorporated into scale parameter of GPD-2. GPD-3, and GPD-4, describing annual cycle in GPD-2. linear trend in GPD-3, and both annual cycle and linear trend in GPD-4. The GPD-1 with constant scale and shape parameters is the simplest model. For identification of the best model among the four models WC used rescaled Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with second-order bias correction. This criterion isolates GPD-3 as the best model, i.e. the one with positive linear trend in the scale parameter. The slope of this trend is significant compared to the null hypothesis of no trend, for about 98% confidence level. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test also showed presence of positive trend in the annual frequency of excess over high thresholds. with p-value being virtually zero. Therefore. there is strong evidence that high quantiles of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo have been increasing in magnitude and frequency over time. For example. 0.99 quantiles of daily rainfall amount have increased by about 40 mm between 1933 and 2005. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Frequency of extreme rainfall events in Southern Brazil modulated by interannual and interdecadal variability

The frequency of extreme rainfall events in Southern Brazil is impacted by Ell Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes, especially in austral spring. There are two areas in which this impact is more significant: one is on the coast, where extreme events are more frequent during El Nino (EN) and the other one extends inland, where extreme events increase during EN and decrease during La Nina (LN). Atmospheric circulation patterns associated with severe rainfall in those areas are similar (opposite) to anomalous patterns characteristic of EN (LN) episodes, indicating why increase (decrease) of extreme events in EN (LN) episodes is favoured. The most recurrent precipitation patterns during extreme rainfall events in each of these areas are disclosed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and evidence the separation between extreme events in these areas: a severe precipitation event generally does not occur simultaneously in the coast and inland, although they may Occur inland and in the coastal region in sequence. Although EN predominantly enhances extreme rainfall, there are EN years in which fewer severe events occur than the average of neutral years, and also the enhancement of extreme rainfall is not uniform for different EN episodes, because the interdecadal non-ENSO variability also modulates significantly the frequency of extreme events in Southern Brazil. The inland region, which is more affected, shows increase (decrease) of extreme rainfall in association with the negative (positive) phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, with the negative (positive) phase of the Pacific Multidecadal Variability and with the positive (negative) phase of the Pacific Interdecadal Variability. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Satellite Rainfall Estimates Over South America - Possible Applicability to the Water Management of Large Watersheds1

This work analyzes high-resolution precipitation data from satellite-derived rainfall estimates over South America, especially over the Amazon Basin. The goal is to examine whether satellite-derived precipitation estimates can be used in hydrology and in the management of larger watersheds of South America. High spatial-temporal resolution precipitation estimates obtained with the CMORPH method serve this purpose while providing an additional hydrometeorological perspective on the convective regime over South America and its predictability. CMORPH rainfall estimates at 8-km spatial resolution for 2003 and 2004 were compared with available rain gauge measurements at daily, monthly, and yearly accumulation time scales. The results show the correlation between satellite-derived and gauge-measured precipitation increases with accumulation period from daily to monthly, especially during the rainy season. Time-longitude diagrams of CMORPH hourly rainfall show the genesis, strength, longevity, and phase speed of convective systems. Hourly rainfall analyses indicate that convection over the Amazon region is often more organized than previously thought, thus inferring that basin scale predictions of rainfall for hydrological and water management purposes have the potential to become more skillful. Flow estimates based on CMORPH and the rain gauge network are compared to long-term observed average flow. The results suggest this satellite-based rainfall estimation technique has considerable utility. Other statistics for monthly accumulations also suggest CMORPH can be an important source of rainfall information at smaller spatial scales where in situ observations are lacking.