Use of a predictive model for food insecurity estimates in Brazil

In 2004 the National Household Survey (Pesquisa Nacional par Amostras de Domicilios - PNAD) estimated the prevalence of food and nutrition insecurity in Brazil. However, PNAD data cannot be disaggregated at the municipal level. The objective of this study was to build a statistical model to predict severe food insecurity for Brazilian municipalities based on the PNAD dataset. Exclusion criteria were: incomplete food security data (19.30%); informants younger than 18 years old (0.07%); collective households (0.05%); households headed by indigenous persons (0.19%). The modeling was carried out in three stages, beginning with the selection of variables related to food insecurity using univariate logistic regression. The variables chosen to construct the municipal estimates were selected from those included in PNAD as well as the 2000 Census. Multivariate logistic regression was then initiated, removing the non-significant variables with odds ratios adjusted by multiple logistic regression. The Wald Test was applied to check the significance of the coefficients in the logistic equation. The final model included the variables: per capita income; years of schooling; race and gender of the household head; urban or rural residence; access to public water supply; presence of children; total number of household inhabitants and state of residence. The adequacy of the model was tested using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p=0.561) and ROC curve (area=0.823). Tests indicated that the model has strong predictive power and can be used to determine household food insecurity in Brazilian municipalities, suggesting that similar predictive models may be useful tools in other Latin American countries.

The effect of an adventure race on lymphocyte and neutrophil death

The effect of an adventure race (Ecomotion Pr), which lasted for 4-5 days, on neutrophil and lymphocyte death from elite athletes was investigated. Blood was collected from 11 athletes at rest and after the adventure race. The following parameters of cell death were measured in neutrophils and lymphocytes: cell membrane integrity, DNA fragmentation, mitochondrial transmembrane depolarization and reactive oxygen species (ROS) production. Phagocytosis capacity was also evaluated in neutrophils. The adventure race raised the proportion of cells with the loss of membrane integrity; lymphocytes by 14% and neutrophils by 16.4%. The proportion of lymphocytes with DNA fragmentation (2.9-fold) and mitochondrial transmembrane depolarization (1.5-fold) increased. However, these parameters did not change in neutrophils. ROS production remained unchanged in lymphocytes, whereas an increase by 2.2-fold was found in neutrophils due to the race. Despite these changes, the phagocytosis capacity did not change in neutrophils after the race. In conclusion, the Ecomotion Pr race-induced neutrophil death by necrosis (as indicated by the loss of membrane integrity) and led to lymphocyte death by apoptosis (as indicated by increase DNA fragmentation and depolarization of mitochondrial membrane).