Use of a predictive model for food insecurity estimates in Brazil

In 2004 the National Household Survey (Pesquisa Nacional par Amostras de Domicilios - PNAD) estimated the prevalence of food and nutrition insecurity in Brazil. However, PNAD data cannot be disaggregated at the municipal level. The objective of this study was to build a statistical model to predict severe food insecurity for Brazilian municipalities based on the PNAD dataset. Exclusion criteria were: incomplete food security data (19.30%); informants younger than 18 years old (0.07%); collective households (0.05%); households headed by indigenous persons (0.19%). The modeling was carried out in three stages, beginning with the selection of variables related to food insecurity using univariate logistic regression. The variables chosen to construct the municipal estimates were selected from those included in PNAD as well as the 2000 Census. Multivariate logistic regression was then initiated, removing the non-significant variables with odds ratios adjusted by multiple logistic regression. The Wald Test was applied to check the significance of the coefficients in the logistic equation. The final model included the variables: per capita income; years of schooling; race and gender of the household head; urban or rural residence; access to public water supply; presence of children; total number of household inhabitants and state of residence. The adequacy of the model was tested using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p=0.561) and ROC curve (area=0.823). Tests indicated that the model has strong predictive power and can be used to determine household food insecurity in Brazilian municipalities, suggesting that similar predictive models may be useful tools in other Latin American countries.

Intrinsically Multivariate Predictive Genes

Canalizing genes possess such broad regulatory power, and their action sweeps across a such a wide swath of processes that the full set of affected genes are not highly correlated under normal conditions. When not active, the controlling gene will not be predictable to any significant degree by its subject genes, either alone or in groups, since their behavior will be highly varied relative to the inactive controlling gene. When the controlling gene is active, its behavior is not well predicted by any one of its targets, but can be very well predicted by groups of genes under its control. To investigate this question, we introduce in this paper the concept of intrinsically multivariate predictive (IMP) genes, and present a mathematical study of IMP in the context of binary genes with respect to the coefficient of determination (CoD), which measures the predictive power of a set of genes with respect to a target gene. A set of predictor genes is said to be IMP for a target gene if all properly contained subsets of the predictor set are bad predictors of the target but the full predictor set predicts the target with great accuracy. We show that logic of prediction, predictive power, covariance between predictors, and the entropy of the joint probability distribution of the predictors jointly affect the appearance of IMP genes. In particular, we show that high-predictive power, small covariance among predictors, a large entropy of the joint probability distribution of predictors, and certain logics, such as XOR in the 2-predictor case, are factors that favor the appearance of IMP. The IMP concept is applied to characterize the behavior of the gene DUSP1, which exhibits control over a central, process-integrating signaling pathway, thereby providing preliminary evidence that IMP can be used as a criterion for discovery of canalizing genes.

Merging Resource Availability with Isotope Mixing Models: The Role of Neutral Interaction Assumptions

Background: Bayesian mixing models have allowed for the inclusion of uncertainty and prior information in the analysis of trophic interactions using stable isotopes. Formulating prior distributions is relatively straightforward when incorporating dietary data. However, the use of data that are related, but not directly proportional, to diet (such as prey availability data) is often problematic because such information is not necessarily predictive of diet, and the information required to build a reliable prior distribution for all prey species is often unavailable. Omitting prey availability data impacts the estimation of a predator's diet and introduces the strong assumption of consumer ultrageneralism (where all prey are consumed in equal proportions), particularly when multiple prey have similar isotope values. Methodology: We develop a procedure to incorporate prey availability data into Bayesian mixing models conditional on the similarity of isotope values between two prey. If a pair of prey have similar isotope values (resulting in highly uncertain mixing model results), our model increases the weight of availability data in estimating the contribution of prey to a predator's diet. We test the utility of this method in an intertidal community against independently measured feeding rates. Conclusions: Our results indicate that our weighting procedure increases the accuracy by which consumer diets can be inferred in situations where multiple prey have similar isotope values. This suggests that the exchange of formalism for predictive power is merited, particularly when the relationship between prey availability and a predator's diet cannot be assumed for all species in a system.

Plasma Superoxide Dismutase-1 as a Surrogate Marker of Vivax Malaria Severity

Background: Severe outcomes have been described for both Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax infections. The identification of sensitive and reliable markers of disease severity is fundamental to improving patient care. An intense pro-inflammatory response with oxidative stress and production of reactive oxygen species is present in malaria. Inflammatory cytokines such as tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) and antioxidant agents such as superoxide dismutase-1 (SOD-1) are likely candidate biomarkers for disease severity. Here we tested whether plasma levels of SOD-1 could serve as a biomarker of severe vivax malaria. Methodology/Principal Findings: Plasma samples were obtained from residents of the Brazilian Amazon with a high risk for P. vivax transmission. Malaria diagnosis was made by both microscopy and nested PCR. A total of 219 individuals were enrolled: non-infected volunteers (n = 90) and individuals with vivax malaria: asymptomatic (n = 60), mild (n = 50) and severe infection (n = 19). SOD-1 was directly associated with parasitaemia, plasma creatinine and alanine amino-transaminase levels, while TNF-alpha correlated only with the later enzyme. The predictive power of SOD-1 and TNF-alpha levels was compared. SOD-1 protein levels were more effective at predicting vivax malaria severity than TNF-alpha. For discrimination of mild infection, elevated SOD-1 levels showed greater sensitivity than TNF-alpha (76% vs. 30% respectively; p < 0.0001), with higher specificity (100% vs. 97%; p < 0.0001). In predicting severe vivax malaria, SOD-1 levels exhibited higher sensitivity than TNF-alpha (80% vs. 56%, respectively; p < 0.0001; likelihood ratio: 7.45 vs. 3.14; p, 0.0001). Neither SOD-1 nor TNF-alpha could discriminate P. vivax infections from those caused by P. falciparum. Conclusion: SOD-1 is a powerful predictor of disease severity in individuals with different clinical presentations of vivax malaria.

Clinical indicators of ineffective airway clearance in children with congenital heart disease

To analyse the sensitivity and specificity of clinical indicators of ineffective airway clearance in children with congenital heart disease and to identify the indicators that have high predictive power. The precise establishment of nursing diagnoses has been found to be one of the factors contributing to higher quality of care and cost reduction in healthcare institutions. The use of indicators to diagnose ineffective airway clearance could improve care of children with congenital heart disease. Longitudinal study. Participants consisted of 45 children, <= 1 year of age, with congenital heart disease, who had not had definitive or palliative surgical correction. Six assessments were made at 2-day intervals. Each clinical indicator was defined based on previously established operational criteria. Sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values of each indicator were calculated based on a model for the longitudinal data. A nursing diagnosis of ineffective airway clearance was made in 31% of patients on the first assessment, rising to 71% on the last assessment, for a 40% increase. Sensitivity was highest for Changes in Respiratory Rates/Rhythms (0.99), followed by Adventitious Breath Sounds (0.97), Sputum Production (0.85) and Restlessness (0.53). Specificity was higher for Sputum Production (0.92), followed by Restlessness (0.73), Adventitious Breath Sounds (0.70) and Changes in Respiratory Rates/Rhythms (0.17). The best positive predictive values occurred for Sputum Production (0.93) and Adventitious Breath Sounds (0.80). Adventitious Breath Sounds followed by Sputum Production were the indicators that had the best overall sensitivity and specificity as well as the highest positive predictive values. The use of simple indicators in nursing diagnoses can improve identification of ineffective airway clearance in children with congenital heart disease, thus leading to early treatment of the problem and better care for these children.

Laparoscopic treatment of metabolic syndrome in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

Background Metabolic syndrome refers to risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Hyperglycemia is a critical component contributing to the predictive power of the syndrome. This study aimed to evaluate the results from the laparoscopic interposition of an ileum segment into the proximal jejunum for the treatment of metabolic syndrome in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and a body mass index (BMI) lower than 35. Methods Laparoscopic procedures were performed for 60 patients (24 women and 36 men) with a mean age of 51.7 +/- 6.4 years (range, 27-66 years) and a mean BMI of 30.1 +/- 2.7 (range, 23.6-34.4). All the patients had a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) given at least 3 years previously and evidence of stable treatment using oral hypoglycemic agents, insulin, or both for at least 12 months. The mean duration of type 2 diabetes mellitus was 9.6 +/- 4.6 years (range, 3-22 years). Metabolic syndrome was diagnosed for all 60 patients. Arterial hypertension was diagnosed for 70% of the patients (mean number of drugs, 1.6) and hypertriglyceridemia for 70%. High-density lipoprotein was altered in 51.7% of the patients and the abdominal circumference in 68.3%. Two techniques were performed: ileal interposition (II) into the proximal jejunum and sleeve gastrectomy (II-SG) or ileal interposition associated with a diverted sleeve gastrectomy (II-DSG). Results The II-SG procedure was performed for 32 patients and the II-DSG procedure for 28 patients. The mean postoperative follow-up period was 7.4 months (range, 3-19 months). The mean BMI was 23.8 +/- 4.1 kg/m(2), and 52 patients (86.7%) achieved adequate glycemic control. Hypertriglyceridemia was normalized for 81.7% of the patients. An high-density lipoprotein level higher than 40 for the men and higher than 50 for the women was achieved by 90.3% of the patients. The abdominal circumference reached was less than 102 cm for the men and 88 cm for the women. Arterial hypertension was controlled in 90.5% of the patients. For the control of metabolic syndrome, II-DSG was the more effective procedure. Conclusions Laparoscopic II-SG and II-DSG seem to be promising procedures for the control of the metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes mellitus. A longer follow-up period is needed.

From EEG to BOLD: Brain mapping and estimating transfer functions in simultaneous EEG-fMRI acquisitions

Simultaneous acquisition of electroencephalography (EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) aims to disentangle the description of brain processes by exploiting the advantages of each technique. Most studies in this field focus on exploring the relationships between fMRI signals and the power spectrum at some specific frequency bands (alpha, beta, etc.). On the other hand, brain mapping of EEG signals (e.g., interictal spikes in epileptic patients) usually assumes an haemodynamic response function for a parametric analysis applying the GLM, as a rough approximation. The integration of the information provided by the high spatial resolution of MR images and the high temporal resolution of EEG may be improved by referencing them by transfer functions, which allows the identification of neural driven areas without strong assumptions about haemodynamic response shapes or brain haemodynamic`s homogeneity. The difference on sampling rate is the first obstacle for a full integration of EEG and fMRI information. Moreover, a parametric specification of a function representing the commonalities of both signals is not established. In this study, we introduce a new data-driven method for estimating the transfer function from EEG signal to fMRI signal at EEG sampling rate. This approach avoids EEG subsampling to fMRI time resolution and naturally provides a test for EEG predictive power over BOLD signal fluctuations, in a well-established statistical framework. We illustrate this concept in resting state (eyes closed) and visual simultaneous fMRI-EEG experiments. The results point out that it is possible to predict the BOLD fluctuations in occipital cortex by using EEG measurements. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Geographic Structure of Plasmodium vivax: Microsatellite Analysis of Parasite Populations from Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Ethiopia

Genetic diversity and population structure of Plasmodium viva-V parasites call predict the origin and Spread of novel Variants Within a population enabling Population specific malaria control measures. We analyzed the genetic diversity and population Structure of 425 P. vivax isolates from Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Ethiopia using 12 trinucleotide and tetranucleotide microsatellite markers. All three parasite populations were highly polymorphic with 3-44 alleles per locus. Approximately 65% were multiple-clone infections. Mean genetic diversity (H(E)) was 0.7517 in Ethiopia, 0.8450 in Myanmar, and 0.8610 in Sri Lanka. Significant linkage disequilibrium Was maintained. Population structure showed two clusters (Asian and African) according to geography and ancestry Strong clustering of outbreak isolates from Sri Lanka and Ethiopia was observed. Predictive power of ancestry using two-thirds of the isolates as a model identified 78.2% of isolates accurately as being African or Asian. Microsatellite analysis is a useful tool for mapping short-term outbreaks of malaria and for predicting ancestry.

Comparative molecular field analysis of a series of inhibitors of HIV-1 protease

Several protease inhibitors have reached the world market in the last fifteen years, dramatically improving the quality of life and life expectancy of millions of HIV-infected patients. In spite of the tremendous research efforts in this area, resistant HIV-1 variants are constantly decreasing the ability of the drugs to efficiently inhibit the enzyme. As a consequence, inhibitors with novel frameworks are necessary to circumvent resistance to chemotherapy. In the present work, we have created 3D QSAR models for a series of 82 HIV-1 protease inhibitors employing the comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA) method. Significant correlation coefficients were obtained (q(2) = 0.82 and r(2) = 0.97), indicating the internal consistency of the best model, which was then used to evaluate an external test set containing 17 compounds. The predicted values were in good agreement with the experimental results, showing the robustness of the model and its substantial predictive power for untested compounds. The final QSAR model and the information gathered from the CoMFA contour maps should be useful for the design of novel anti-HIV agents with improved potency.

Fragment-guided approach to incorporating structural information into a CoMFA study: BACE-1 as an example

Alzheimer`s disease is an ultimately fatal neurodegenerative disease, and BACE-1 has become an attractive validated target for its therapy, with more than a hundred crystal structures deposited in the PDB. In the present study, we present a new methodology that integrates ligand-based methods with structural information derived from the receptor. 128 BACE-1 inhibitors recently disclosed by GlaxoSmithKline R&D were selected specifically because the crystal structures of 9 of these compounds complexed to BACE-1, as well as five closely related analogs, have been made available. A new fragment-guided approach was designed to incorporate this wealth of structural information into a CoMFA study, and the methodology was systematically compared to other popular approaches, such as docking, for generating a molecular alignment. The influence of the partial charges calculation method was also analyzed. Several consistent and predictive models are reported, including one with r (2) = 0.88, q (2) = 0.69 and r (pred) (2) = 0.72. The models obtained with the new methodology performed consistently better than those obtained by other methodologies, particularly in terms of external predictive power. The visual analyses of the contour maps in the context of the enzyme drew attention to a number of possible opportunities for the development of analogs with improved potency. These results suggest that 3D-QSAR studies may benefit from the additional structural information added by the presented methodology.

Pharmacogenetics of Warfarin: Development of a Dosing Algorithm for Brazilian Patients

A dosing algorithm including genetic (VKORC1 and CYP2C9 genotypes) and nongenetic factors (age, weight, therapeutic indication, and cotreatment with amiodarone or simvastatin) explained 51% of the variance in stable weekly warfarin doses in 390 patients attending an anticoagulant clinic in a Brazilian public hospital. The VKORC1 3673G>A genotype was the most important predictor of warfarin dose, with a partial R(2) value of 23.9%. Replacing the VKORC1 3673G>A genotype with VKORC1 diplotype did not increase the algorithm`s predictive power. We suggest that three other single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (5808T>G, 6853G>C, and 9041G>A) that are in strong linkage disequilibrium (LD) with 3673G>A would be equally good predictors of the warfarin dose requirement. The algorithm`s predictive power was similar across the self-identified ""race/color"" subsets. ""Race/color"" was not associated with stable warfarin dose in the multiple regression model, although the required warfarin dose was significantly lower (P = 0.006) in white (29 +/- 13 mg/week, n = 196) than in black patients (35 +/- 15 mg/week, n = 76).

Reliability and discriminatory power of methods for dental plaque quantification

OBJECTIVE: This in situ study evaluated the discriminatory power and reliability of methods of dental plaque quantification and the relationship between visual indices (VI) and fluorescence camera (FC) to detect plaque. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Six volunteers used palatal appliances with six bovine enamel blocks presenting different stages of plaque accumulation. The presence of plaque with and without disclosing was assessed using VI. Images were obtained with FC and digital camera in both conditions. The area covered by plaque was assessed. Examinations were done by two independent examiners. Data were analyzed by Kruskal-Wallis and Kappa tests to compare different conditions of samples and to assess the inter-examiner reproducibility. RESULTS: Some methods presented adequate reproducibility. The Turesky index and the assessment of area covered by disclosed plaque in the FC images presented the highest discriminatory powers. CONCLUSION: The Turesky index and images with FC with disclosing present good reliability and discriminatory power in quantifying dental plaque.

Menopausal status: a possible predictive factor for recurrence in women with cancer of the uterine cervix without pelvic lymph node metastasis

Abstract Objectives to evaluate risk factors for recurrence of carcinoma of the uterine cervix among women who had undergone radical hysterectomy without pelvic lymph node metastasis, while taking into consideration not only the classical histopathological factors but also sociodemographic, clinical and treatment-related factors. Study desin This was an exploratory analysis on 233 women with carcinoma of the uterine cervix (stages IB and IIA) who were treated by means of radical hysterectomy and pelvic lymphadenectomy, with free surgical margins and without lymph node metastases on conventional histopathological examination. Women with histologically normal lymph nodes but with micrometastases in the immunohistochemical analysis (AE1/AE3) were excluded. Disease-free survival for sociodemographic, clinical and histopathological variables was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the independent risk factors for recurrence. Twenty-seven recurrences were recorded (11.6%), of which 18 were pelvic, four were distant, four were pelvic + distant and one was of unknown location. The five-year disease-free survival rate among the study population was 88.4%. The independent risk factors for recurrence in the multivariate analysis were: postmenopausal status (HR 14.1; 95% CI: 3.7-53.6; P < 0.001), absence of or slight inflammatory reaction (HR 7.9; 95% CI: 1.7-36.5; P = 0.008) and invasion of the deepest third of the cervix (HR 6.1; 95% CI: 1.3-29.1; P = 0.021). Postoperative radiotherapy was identified as a protective factor against recurrence (HR 0.02; 95% CI: 0.001-0.25; P = 0.003). (To continue) Postmenopausal status is a possible independent risk factor for recurrence even when adjusted for classical prognostic factors (such as tumour size, depth of tumour invasion, capillary embolisation) and treatment-related factors (period of treatment and postoperative radiotherapy status)

Power Secant Method applied to natural frequency extraction of Timoshenko beam structures

This work deals with an improved plane frame formulation whose exact dynamic stiffness matrix (DSM) presents, uniquely, null determinant for the natural frequencies. In comparison with the classical DSM, the formulation herein presented has some major advantages: local mode shapes are preserved in the formulation so that, for any positive frequency, the DSM will never be ill-conditioned; in the absence of poles, it is possible to employ the secant method in order to have a more computationally efficient eigenvalue extraction procedure. Applying the procedure to the more general case of Timoshenko beams, we introduce a new technique, named ""power deflation"", that makes the secant method suitable for the transcendental nonlinear eigenvalue problems based on the improved DSM. In order to avoid overflow occurrences that can hinder the secant method iterations, limiting frequencies are formulated, with scaling also applied to the eigenvalue problem. Comparisons with results available in the literature demonstrate the strength of the proposed method. Computational efficiency is compared with solutions obtained both by FEM and by the Wittrick-Williams algorithm.

Living Our Lives on the Edge: Power, Space and Sexual Orientation in Cape Town Townships, South Africa

Much of social science literature about South African cities fails to represent its complex spectrum of sexual practices and associated identities. The unintended effects of such representations are that a compulsory heterosexuality is naturalised in, and reiterative with, dominant constructions of blackness in townships. In this paper, we argue that the assertion of discreet lesbian and gay identities in black townships of a South African city such as Cape Town is influenced by the historical racial and socio-economic divides that have marked urban landscape. In their efforts to recoup a positive sense of gendered personhood, residents have constructed a moral economy anchored in reproductive heterosexuality. We draw upon ethnographic data to show how sexual minorities live their lives vicariously in spaces they have prised open within the extant sex/gender binary. They are able to assert the identities of moffie and man-vrou (mannish woman) without threatening the dominant ideology of heterosexuality.