Effects of intensity and positional predictability of a visual stimulus on simple reaction time

The influence of visual stimuli intensity on manual reaction time (RT) was investigated under two different attentional settings: high (Experiment 1) and low (Experiment 2) stimulus location predictability. These two experiments were also run under both binocular and monocular viewing conditions. We observed that RT decreased as stimulus intensity increased. It also decreased as the viewing condition was changed from monocular to binocular as well as the location predictability shifted from low to high. A significant interaction was found between stimulus intensity and viewing condition, but no interaction was observed between neither of these factors and location predictability. These findings support the idea that the stimulus intensity effect arises from purely sensory, pre-attentive mechanisms rather than deriving from more efficient attentional capture. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The relation between action, predictability and temporal contiguity in temporal binding

Previous studies have documented a subjective temporal attraction between actions and their effects. This finding, named intentional binding, is thought to be the result of a cognitive function that links actions to their consequences. Although several studies have tried to outline the necessary and sufficient conditions for intentional binding, a quantitative comparison between the roles of temporal contiguity, predictability and voluntary action and the evaluation of their interactions is difficult due to the high variability of the temporal binding measurements. In the present study, we used a novel methodology to investigate the properties of intentional binding. Subjects judged whether an auditory stimulus, which could either be triggered by a voluntary finger lift or be presented after a visual temporal marker unrelated to any action, was presented synchronously with a reference stimulus. In three experiments, the predictability, the interval between action and consequence and the presence of action itself were manipulated. The results indicate that (1) action is a necessary condition for temporal binding; (2) a fixed interval between the two events is not sufficient to cause the effect and (3) only in the presence of voluntary action do temporal predictability and contiguity play a significant role in modulating the effect.These findings are discussed in the context of the relationship between intentional binding and temporal expectation. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Measuring time series predictability using support vector regression

Most studies involving statistical time series analysis rely on assumptions of linearity, which by its simplicity facilitates parameter interpretation and estimation. However, the linearity assumption may be too restrictive for many practical applications. The implementation of nonlinear models in time series analysis involves the estimation of a large set of parameters, frequently leading to overfitting problems. In this article, a predictability coefficient is estimated using a combination of nonlinear autoregressive models and the use of support vector regression in this model is explored. We illustrate the usefulness and interpretability of results by using electroencephalographic records of an epileptic patient.

Mechanisms Associated with Large Daily Rainfall Events in Northeast Brazil

The mechanisms resulting in large daily rainfall events in Northeast Brazil are analyzed using data filtering to exclude periods longer than 30 days. Composites of circulation fields that include all independent events do not reveal any obvious forcing mechanisms as multiple patterns contribute to Northeast Brazil precipitation variability. To isolate coherent patterns, subsets of events are selected based on anomalies that precede the Northeast Brazil precipitation events at different locations. The results indicate that at 10 degrees S, 40 degrees W, the area of lowest annual rainfall in Brazil, precipitation occurs mainly in association with trailing midlatitude synoptic wave trains originating in either hemisphere. Closer to the equator at 5 degrees S, 37.5 degrees W, an additional convection precursor is found to the west, with a spatial structure consistent with that of a Kelvin wave. Although these two sites are located within only several hundred kilometers of each other and the midlatitude patterns that induce precipitation appear to be quite similar, the dates on which large precipitation anomalies occur at each location are almost entirely independent, pointing to separate forcing mechanisms.

Stochastic simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation activity

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability. This study investigated the following questions. Do inter-annual-to-decadal variations in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) lead to substantial changes in MJO activity? Was there a change in the MJO in the 1970s? Can this change be associated to SST anomalies? What was the level of MJO activity in the pre-reanalysis era? These questions were investigated with a stochastic model of the MJO. Reanalysis data (1948-2008) were used to develop a nine-state first order Markov model capable to simulate the non-stationarity of the MJO. The model is driven by observed SST anomalies and a large ensemble of simulations was performed to infer the activity of the MJO in the instrumental period (1880-2008). The model is capable to reproduce the activity of the MJO during the reanalysis period. The simulations indicate that the MJO exhibited a regime of near normal activity in 1948-1972 (3.4 events year(-1)) and two regimes of high activity in 1973-1989 (3.9 events) and 1990-2008 (4.6 events). Stochastic simulations indicate decadal shifts with near normal levels in 1880-1895 (3.4 events), low activity in 1896 1917 (2.6 events) and a return to near normal levels during 1918-1947 (3.3 events). The results also point out to significant decadal changes in probabilities of very active years (5 or more MJO events): 0.214 (1880-1895), 0.076 (1896-1917), 0.197 (1918-1947) and 0.193 (1948-1972). After a change in behavior in the 1970s, this probability has increased to 0.329 (1973-1989) and 0.510 (1990-2008). The observational and stochastic simulations presented here call attention to the need to further understand the variability of the MJO on a wide range of time scales.

Satellite Rainfall Estimates Over South America - Possible Applicability to the Water Management of Large Watersheds1

This work analyzes high-resolution precipitation data from satellite-derived rainfall estimates over South America, especially over the Amazon Basin. The goal is to examine whether satellite-derived precipitation estimates can be used in hydrology and in the management of larger watersheds of South America. High spatial-temporal resolution precipitation estimates obtained with the CMORPH method serve this purpose while providing an additional hydrometeorological perspective on the convective regime over South America and its predictability. CMORPH rainfall estimates at 8-km spatial resolution for 2003 and 2004 were compared with available rain gauge measurements at daily, monthly, and yearly accumulation time scales. The results show the correlation between satellite-derived and gauge-measured precipitation increases with accumulation period from daily to monthly, especially during the rainy season. Time-longitude diagrams of CMORPH hourly rainfall show the genesis, strength, longevity, and phase speed of convective systems. Hourly rainfall analyses indicate that convection over the Amazon region is often more organized than previously thought, thus inferring that basin scale predictions of rainfall for hydrological and water management purposes have the potential to become more skillful. Flow estimates based on CMORPH and the rain gauge network are compared to long-term observed average flow. The results suggest this satellite-based rainfall estimation technique has considerable utility. Other statistics for monthly accumulations also suggest CMORPH can be an important source of rainfall information at smaller spatial scales where in situ observations are lacking.

Predictions from an anisotropic inflationary era

This paper investigates the predictions of an inflationary phase starting from a homogeneous and anisotropic universe of the Bianchi I type. After discussing the evolution of the background spacetime, focusing on the number of e-folds and the isotropization, we solve the perturbation equations and predict the power spectra of the curvature perturbations and gravity waves at the end of inflation. The main features of the early anisotropic phase is (1) a dependence of the spectra on the direction of the modes, (2) a coupling between curvature perturbations and gravity waves and (3) the fact that the two gravity wave polarizations do not share the same spectrum on large scales. All these effects are significant only on large scales and die out on small scales where isotropy is recovered. They depend on a characteristic scale that can, but a priori must not, be tuned to some observable scale. To fix the initial conditions, we propose a procedure that generalizes the one standardly used in inflation but that takes into account the fact that the WKB regime is violated at early times when the shear dominates. We stress that there exist modes that do not satisfy the WKB condition during the shear-dominated regime and for which the amplitude at the end of inflation depends on unknown initial conditions. On such scales, inflation loses its predictability. This study paves the way for the determination of the cosmological signature of a primordial shear, whatever the Bianchi I spacetime. It thus stresses the importance of the WKB regime to draw inflationary predictions and demonstrates that, when the number of e-folds is large enough, the predictions converge toward those of inflation in a Friedmann-Lemaitre spacetime but that they are less robust in the case of an inflationary era with a small number of e-folds.

Relative entropy measures applied to healthy and pathological voice characterization

Nowadays, noninvasive methods of diagnosis have increased due to demands of the population that requires fast, simple and painless exams. These methods have become possible because of the growth of technology that provides the necessary means of collecting and processing signals. New methods of analysis have been developed to understand the complexity of voice signals, such as nonlinear dynamics aiming at the exploration of voice signals dynamic nature. The purpose of this paper is to characterize healthy and pathological voice signals with the aid of relative entropy measures. Phase space reconstruction technique is also used as a way to select interesting regions of the signals. Three groups of samples were used, one from healthy individuals and the other two from people with nodule in the vocal fold and Reinke`s edema. All of them are recordings of sustained vowel /a/ from Brazilian Portuguese. The paper shows that nonlinear dynamical methods seem to be a suitable technique for voice signal analysis, due to the chaotic component of the human voice. Relative entropy is well suited due to its sensibility to uncertainties, since the pathologies are characterized by an increase in the signal complexity and unpredictability. The results showed that the pathological groups had higher entropy values in accordance with other vocal acoustic parameters presented. This suggests that these techniques may improve and complement the recent voice analysis methods available for clinicians. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.