RUMOR PROCESSES ON N

We study four discrete-time stochastic systems on N, modeling processes of rumor spreading. The involved individuals can either have an active or a passive role, speaking up or asking for the rumor. The appetite for spreading or hearing the rumor is represented by a set of random variables whose distributions may depend on the individuals. Our goal is to understand-based on the distribution of the random variables-whether the probability of having an infinite set of individuals knowing the rumor is positive or not.

Experimental evidence and model explanation for cell population characteristics modification when applying sequential photodynamic therapy

We present experimental evidence of the existence of cell variability in terms of threshold light dose for Hep G2 (liver cancer cells) cultured. Using a theoretical model to describe the effects caused by successive photodynamic therapy (PDT) sessions, and based on the consequences of a partial response we introduce the threshold dose distribution concept within a tumor. The experimental model consists in a stack of flasks, and simulates subsequent layers of a tissue exposed to PDT application. The result indicates that cells from the same culture could respond in different ways to similar PDT induced-damages. Moreover, the consequence is a partial killing of the cells submitted to PDT, and the death fraction decreased at each in vitro PDT session. To demonstrate the occurrence of cell population modification as a response to PDT, we constructed a simple theoretical model and assumed that the threshold dose distribution for a cell population of a tumor is represented by a modified Gaussian distribution.

Predicting random effects with an expanded finite population mixed model

Prediction of random effects is an important problem with expanding applications. In the simplest context, the problem corresponds to prediction of the latent value (the mean) of a realized cluster selected via two-stage sampling. Recently, Stanek and Singer [Predicting random effects from finite population clustered samples with response error. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 99, 119-130] developed best linear unbiased predictors (BLUP) under a finite population mixed model that outperform BLUPs from mixed models and superpopulation models. Their setup, however, does not allow for unequally sized clusters. To overcome this drawback, we consider an expanded finite population mixed model based on a larger set of random variables that span a higher dimensional space than those typically applied to such problems. We show that BLUPs for linear combinations of the realized cluster means derived under such a model have considerably smaller mean squared error (MSE) than those obtained from mixed models, superpopulation models, and finite population mixed models. We motivate our general approach by an example developed for two-stage cluster sampling and show that it faithfully captures the stochastic aspects of sampling in the problem. We also consider simulation studies to illustrate the increased accuracy of the BLUP obtained under the expanded finite population mixed model. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Population-Based Multicentric Survey of Hepatitis B Infection and Risk Factor Differences among Three Regions in Brazil

This multicentric population-based study in Brazil is the first national effort to estimate the prevalence of hepatitis B (HBV) and risk factors in the capital cities of the Northeast. Central-West, and Federal Districts (2004-2005). Random multistage cluster sampling was used to select persons 13-69 years of age. Markers for HBV were tested by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The HBV genotypes were determined by sequencing hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). Multivariate analyses and simple catalytic model were performed. Overall. 7,881 persons were inculded < 70% were not vaccinated. Positivity for HBsAg was less than 1% among non-vaccinated persons and genotypes A, D, and F co-circulated. The incidence of infection increased with age with similar force of infection in all regions. Males and persons having initiated sexual activity were associated with HBV infection in the two settings: healthcare jobs and prior hospitalization were risk factors in the Federal District. Our survey classified these regions as areas with HBV endemicity and highlighted the risk factors differences among the settings.

Factors associated with health-related quality of life after successful kidney transplantation: a population-based study

Kidney transplantation improves the quality of life of end-stage renal disease patients. The quality of life benefits, however, pertain to patients on average, not to all transplant recipients. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with health-related quality of life after kidney transplantation. Population-based study with a cross-sectional design was carried out and quality of life was assessed by SF-36 Health Survey Version 1. A multivariate linear regression model was constructed with sociodemographic, clinical and laboratory data as independent variables. Two hundred and seventy-two kidney recipients with a functioning graft were analyzed. Hypertension, diabetes, higher serum creatinine and lower hematocrit were independently and significantly associated with lower scores for the SF-36 oblique physical component summary (PCSc). The final regression model explained 11% of the PCSc variance. The scores of oblique mental component summary (MCSc) were worse for females, patients with a lower income, unemployed and patients with a higher serum creatinine. The regression model explained 9% of the MCSc variance. Among the studied variables, comorbidity and graft function were the main factors associated with the PCSc, and sociodemographic variables and graft function were the main determinants of MCSc. Despite comprehensive, the final regression models explained only a little part of the heath-related quality of life variance. Additional factors, such as personal, environmental and clinical ones might influence quality of life perceived by the patients after kidney transplantation.

Population structure of the migratory fish Prochilodus lineatus (Characiformes) from rio Grande basin (Brazil), an area fragmented by dams

1. Prochilodus lineatus (Prochilodontidae, Characiformes) is a migratory species of great economic importance both in fisheries and aquaculture that is found throughout the Jacui, Paraiba do Sul, Parana, Paraguay and Uruguay river basins in South America. Earlier population studies of P. lineatus in the rio Grande basin (Parana basin) indicated the existence of a single population; however, the range of this species has been fragmented by the construction of several dams. Such dams modified the environmental conditions and could have constrained the reproductive migration of P. lineatus, possibly leading to changes in the population genetic structure. 2. In order to evaluate how genetic diversity is allocated in the rio Grande basin, 141 specimens of P. lineatus from eight collection sites were analysed using polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) with 15 restriction enzymes. 3. Forty-six haplotypes were detected, and 70% of them are restricted. The mean genetic variability indexes (h = 0.7721 and pi = 1.6%) were similar to those found in natural populations with a large effective size. Fst and Exact Test values indicated a lack of structuring among the samples, and the model of isolation by distance was tested and rejected. 4. The haplotype network indicated that this population of P. lineatus has been maintained as a single variable stock with some differences in the genetic composition (haplotypes) between samples. Indications of population expansion were detected, and this finding was supported by neutrality tests and mismatch distribution analyses. 5. The present study focused on regions between dams to serve as a parameter for further evaluations of genetic variability and the putative impact of dams and repopulation programmes in natural populations of P. lineatus. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Prospective and Retrospective Memory Questionnaire: A population-based random sampling study

The Prospective and Retrospective Memory Questionnaire (PRMQ) has been shown to have acceptable reliability and factorial, predictive, and concurrent validity. However, the PRMQ has never been administered to a probability sample survey representative of all ages in adulthood, nor have previous studies controlled for factors that are known to influence metamemory, such as affective status. Here, the PRMQ was applied in a survey adopting a probabilistic three-stage cluster sample representative of the population of Sao Paulo, Brazil, according to gender, age (20-80 years), and economic status (n=1042). After excluding participants who had conditions that impair memory (depression, anxiety, used psychotropics, and/or had neurological/psychiatric disorders), in the remaining 664 individuals we (a) used confirmatory factor analyses to test competing models of the latent structure of the PRMQ, and (b) studied effects of gender, age, schooling, and economic status on prospective and retrospective memory complaints. The model with the best fit confirmed the same tripartite structure (general memory factor and two orthogonal prospective and retrospective memory factors) previously reported. Women complained more of general memory slips, especially those in the first 5 years after menopause, and there were more complaints of prospective than retrospective memory, except in participants with lower family income.

A Bayesian model for estimating the malaria transition probabilities considering individuals lost to follow-up

It is known that patients may cease participating in a longitudinal study and become lost to follow-up. The objective of this article is to present a Bayesian model to estimate the malaria transition probabilities considering individuals lost to follow-up. We consider a homogeneous population, and it is assumed that the considered period of time is small enough to avoid two or more transitions from one state of health to another. The proposed model is based on a Gibbs sampling algorithm that uses information of lost to follow-up at the end of the longitudinal study. To simulate the unknown number of individuals with positive and negative states of malaria at the end of the study and lost to follow-up, two latent variables were introduced in the model. We used a real data set and a simulated data to illustrate the application of the methodology. The proposed model showed a good fit to these data sets, and the algorithm did not show problems of convergence or lack of identifiability. We conclude that the proposed model is a good alternative to estimate probabilities of transitions from one state of health to the other in studies with low adherence to follow-up.

Stochastic lattice gas model describing the dynamics of the SIRS epidemic process

We study a stochastic process describing the onset of spreading dynamics of an epidemic in a population composed of individuals of three classes: susceptible (S), infected (I), and recovered (R). The stochastic process is defined by local rules and involves the following cyclic process: S -> I -> R -> S (SIRS). The open process S -> I -> R (SIR) is studied as a particular case of the SIRS process. The epidemic process is analyzed at different levels of description: by a stochastic lattice gas model and by a birth and death process. By means of Monte Carlo simulations and dynamical mean-field approximations we show that the SIRS stochastic lattice gas model exhibit a line of critical points separating the two phases: an absorbing phase where the lattice is completely full of S individuals and an active phase where S, I and R individuals coexist, which may or may not present population cycles. The critical line, that corresponds to the onset of epidemic spreading, is shown to belong in the directed percolation universality class. By considering the birth and death process we analyze the role of noise in stabilizing the oscillations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The mass media destabilizes the cultural homogenous regime in Axelrod`s model

An important feature of Axelrod`s model for culture dissemination or social influence is the emergence of many multicultural absorbing states, despite the fact that the local rules that specify the agents interactions are explicitly designed to decrease the cultural differences between agents. Here we re-examine the problem of introducing an external, global interaction-the mass media-in the rules of Axelrod`s model: in addition to their nearest neighbors, each agent has a certain probability p to interact with a virtual neighbor whose cultural features are fixed from the outset. Most surprisingly, this apparently homogenizing effect actually increases the cultural diversity of the population. We show that, contrary to previous claims in the literature, even a vanishingly small value of p is sufficient to destabilize the homogeneous regime for very large lattice sizes.

STABILITY ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATIONS OF A TWO-DIMENSIONAL DYNAMICAL SYSTEM ARISING FROM A STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR AN ASSET MARKET

We analyze the stability properties of equilibrium solutions and periodicity of orbits in a two-dimensional dynamical system whose orbits mimic the evolution of the price of an asset and the excess demand for that asset. The construction of the system is grounded upon a heterogeneous interacting agent model for a single risky asset market. An advantage of this construction procedure is that the resulting dynamical system becomes a macroscopic market model which mirrors the market quantities and qualities that would typically be taken into account solely at the microscopic level of modeling. The system`s parameters correspond to: (a) the proportion of speculators in a market; (b) the traders` speculative trend; (c) the degree of heterogeneity of idiosyncratic evaluations of the market agents with respect to the asset`s fundamental value; and (d) the strength of the feedback of the population excess demand on the asset price update increment. This correspondence allows us to employ our results in order to infer plausible causes for the emergence of price and demand fluctuations in a real asset market. The employment of dynamical systems for studying evolution of stochastic models of socio-economic phenomena is quite usual in the area of heterogeneous interacting agent models. However, in the vast majority of the cases present in the literature, these dynamical systems are one-dimensional. Our work is among the few in the area that construct and study analytically a two-dimensional dynamical system and apply it for explanation of socio-economic phenomena.

Distribution of ABCB1 polymorphisms among Brazilians: impact of population admixture

Introduction: Interethnic admixture is a source of cryptic population structure that may lead to spurious genotype-phenotype associations in pharmacogenomic studies. We studied the impact of population stratification on the distribution of ABCB1 polymorphisms (1236C > T, 2677G > T/A and 3435C > T) among Brazilians, a highly admixed population with Amerindian, European and African ancestral roots. Methods: Individual DNA from 320 healthy adults was genotyped with a panel of ancestry informative markers, and the proportions of African component of ancestry (ACA) were estimated. ABCB1 genotypes were determined by the single base extension/termination method. We describe the association between ABCB1 polymorphisms and ACA by fitting a linear proportional odds logistic regression model to the data. Results: The distribution of the ABCB1 2677G > T/A and 3435C > T, but not the 1236C > T, SNPs displayed a significant trend for decreasing frequency of the T alleles and TT genotypes from White to Intermediate to Black individuals. The same trend was observed in the frequency of the T/nonG/T haplotype at the 1236, 2677 and 3435 loci. When the population sample was proportioned in quartiles, according to the individual ACA estimates, the frequency of the T allele and TT genotype at each locus declined progressively from the lowest (< 0.25 ACA) to the highest (> 0.75 ACA) quartile. Linear proportional odds logistic regression analysis confirmed that the odds of having the T allele at each locus decreases in a continuous manner with the increase of the ACA, throughout the ACA range (0.13-0.94) observed in the overall population sample. A significant association was also detected between the individual ACA estimates and the presence of the T/nonG/T haplotype in the overall population. Conclusion: Self-identification according to the racial/color categories proposed by the Brazilian Census is insufficient to properly control for population stratification in pharmacogenomic studies of ABCB1.